Weather Permitting: Record-breaking temperatures expected in Fayetteville this week
Welcome to Febpril, that time of year when the calendar says winter — but the air outside says "Head to the beach!"
How warm will it get? The southern Cape Fear region can expect a sea breeze, a condition usually experienced in the heat of summer.
It's been more than 90 years since a late-winter heat wave baked the region with readings in the mid-80s. If you have a living memory of a February day as warm as Thursday should be, you also have memories of Amelia Earhart flying into Fayetteville,
A combination of conditions will collide over the Carolinas this week, driving unprecedented warmth into the Cape Fear region and likely shattering the all-time February heat record for Fayetteville on Thursday.
In addition, stout southwest winds will aggravate an early-season fire hazard in rural areas, and send pollen counts soaring across the Carolinas.
Here's the setup
The southeast ridge, a high-pressure dome responsible for our mild winter (aside from when it went on vacation around Christmas) is expected to expand northward this week. It should fend off a cold front to our north, though Fayetteville will see clouds Monday afternoon. Highs across the region will flirt with 70, a good 10-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.
"Normal" flies out the wind on Tuesday as the cold front retreats and the Cape Fear region finds itself stuck between two systems. The result is warming temperatures fed by breezy westerly winds. Depending on how low the dew points get, these conditions could create a burning risk as highs climb into the upper 70s. Overnight lows should stay in the low 50s.
Things get downright warm on Wednesday as the southern ridge builds up the East Coast. Southern breezes will draw air up from the Caribbean and widespread 80-plus highs are likely. Lows may not drop below 60 -- in other words, the lows will be warmer than the usual highs for late February.
Conditions reach a climactic climax on Thursday. Building on warm air already in place, and southwestern gusts up to 30 mph, Fayetteville should climb above 85 degrees — the hottest February day on record. The daily record (80 degrees, set in 2018) will probably fall before lunchtime. Overnight lows of about 65 will be one of the warmest February nights on record as well.
Conditions improve Friday as the ridge finally weakens enough for a passing cold front to pump cooler air into the state. Still, highs in the low 70s are well above average,
By Saturday, the cooler air will knock Fayetteville highs back in the low to mid-60s with clouds and a slight chance of rain. More warm weather is on the way as the cold front retreats out of the Carolinas. We'll be back in the mid-70s on Sunday, and long-range patterns indicate the Cape Fear region should stay warmer than normal into mid-March.
You might want to have your home air conditioning checked out while there's time. Have a great week!
The five warmest February days in Fayetteville history
85 degrees, Feb. 25, 1930
84 degrees: Feb. 19, 1956
83 degrees: Feb. 28, 2021
83 degrees: Feb. 4, 1989
83 degrees: Feb. 24, 1930
* Expected high in Fayetteville on Feb. 24 is 87 degrees. For those wondering, the earliest-ever 90-degree reading locally was March 17, 1945.
Got a weather question? Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com or NCWeatherhound on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Weather forecast in Fayetteville, NC and Cumberland County, NC
