Week 11 Player Props
Andy Behrens, Matt Harmon and Tank Williams offer up their favorite player props for week 11.
Video Transcript
ANDY BEHRENS: All right, it's prop time, people. You know the drill here. We each discuss a favorite NFL prop bet. I'm not allowed to discuss kickers. That's outrageous. And then we decide if we like the over or the under. Tank, why don't you get us started?
TANK WILLIAMS: Oh, let's do it to it then. I'm going Brian Robinson over 65 and 1/2 rush yards against the Houston Texans. The Houston Texans have the absolute worst rush defense in the league. They gave up 182 yards per game. And the thing I really like about this is that he had 26 carries, 86 yards, and a tub against a Philadelphia defense that we know is one of the better defenses in the league.
They're around the middle of the pack as far as rush defense, but he was able to get the job done against them. And I think going against the worst defense in the league and the team making a concerted effort to get you a lot of carries, he should be able to go over this number easily. Who's fading me? Harmon, you go first.
MATT HARMON: Oh, man. Yeah, I think I'm going to go over with you on this one as well. While I do think the backfield is split, we have concentrated it now to just two guys. That's what we want. We don't-- JD McKissic is out for the season. Hope he gets well. That's a scary neck injury, any time you're dealing with that. But the fact that this backfield is now just two guys-- great matchup. Brian Robinson, they want him to be that grinder back. I'm going over as well with you, Tank.
ANDY BEHRENS: All right, I understand this one. It's a great matchup. And honestly, I thought that Antonio Gibson had leapfrogged Brian Robinson, and then it turns out it didn't happen. Brian Robinson was an absolute workhorse last week. But this is where I try to differentiate myself. I just think Gibson's a better player. We're going to see a lot of him. I'm going to take the under slightly here. I can't justify it, again, based on matchup, but I do think we're getting an under.
My play this week, this is going to shock you. This is absolutely going to shock you because I've only taken him the last two weeks. I'm going to go Justin Fields--
TANK WILLIAMS: Justin Fields.
ANDY BEHRENS: --over on his rushing prop. And perhaps you've heard this before. Perhaps you've heard all the arguments before. This week, the rushing prop is up there. It went from down in the 50s to 71 and 1/2 rushing yards, and I am still taking over. This man, over his last five games, is averaging 111 rushing yards per week. He's getting 9 yards per carry.
If he goes over 100 yards this week, he's the first quarterback to ever do it in three consecutive weeks. He's topped this total with ease in four of his last five games. So I'm going to continue to ride this thing until it doesn't pay off. Tank, are you riding with me?
TANK WILLIAMS: Dang it. You would do this to me. And I love Justin Fields too. I do not want to fade this cat, but that number is high as a giraffe's you name it. So, ah, dang it. And I want him to beat it too.
MATT HARMON: Come on, Tank.
TANK WILLIAMS: But I got to fade, man. I got to fade it. I'm gonna fade it because Harmon is going to piggyback along. So I'm fading. Go ahead. Go ahead, Harmon.
MATT HARMON: Oh, incorrect once again, Tank. I'm actually with you on the under here. The Falcons have allowed 23 carries for 89 yards to quarterbacks on the ground this year. That is the second-lowest rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. Dean Pees, their coordinator-- look, the Falcons got a lot of problems on defense, OK? A lot of injuries as well.
I think if Justin Fields is going to win this game, he's going to have to win it through the air, not with his legs because Dean Pees has been a part of a lot of defenses that have shut down mobile quarterbacks throughout his coaching career. And he might not have the talent this year, but I do think he can schematically be a little bit better than whatever the hell the Detroit Lions were doing against the option last week. So give me the under on Justin Fields.
[LAUGHTER]
ANDY BEHRENS: I'll just point out that Atlanta has not actually seen a top-end dual-threat quarterback like Fields. I'm so excited for this. He's going over 80.
MATT HARMON: Not my narrative.
ANDY BEHRENS: We're not even close to the total where I'm taking unders on Justin Fields rushing props. Matt, what do you have for us?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, you guys have a lot of fun players there. That's cute. I'm going with Scott Pianowski's favorite player in the NFL. It's Darius Slayton. I'm taking the over on 39 and 1/2 receiving yards. Scott is so right to point out that this guy is almost like a must-start basically this week. Since week 7, he has a 21% target share of the Giants offense. He has a 38% air yard share of the Giants offense.
Going against that Detroit Lions defense that I just mentioned. I don't know what the hell they were doing against Justin Fields last week. I often don't know what the Detroit Lions are doing in terms of their pass defense overall. Darius Slayton, are any of you guys brave enough to say he's going to go under 40 yards? I don't think so. Andy, mister I'm differentiating this week, why don't you go ahead and tell me what you're doing here?
ANDY BEHRENS: No, I'm too much of a coward to take the under here. This is a really friendly line. I don't actually bet a lot of these things that we talk about in this segment, but I might in the break. I might hit this one up. I love the over here. Slayton can do this on one play, right? He's been a big-play receiver his entire career, and the matchup is super friendly, so I'm taking the over. Tank, how about you?
TANK WILLIAMS: Man, as much as I like to fade Harmon, this is one that, I mean, I've actually looked at earlier in the week. And I think that this is a slam dunk. I mean, obviously, we know that the Giants are going to lean on Saquon Barkley. But Slayton has been the guy in the pass game. So, yeah, Harmon, I see you up there. But, yeah, I got to roll with you this week, you and the hair. Over.
[LAUGHTER]
ANDY BEHRENS: All right, let's take a look at the standings entering week 11. And this is wild. We don't have a lot of close races on this show, generally speaking, over the years. Oh, I want to thank the producers for putting me in the lead. That wasn't necessary.
TANK WILLIAMS: Oh, and why did I get thrown to the back of the bus all of a sudden? Pssh.
ANDY BEHRENS: Weren't you winning last week while we were all tied?
TANK WILLIAMS: How does that happen and we're tied?
ANDY BEHRENS: --box.
TANK WILLIAMS: I guess we just rotate. As long as-- at least they didn't put Harmon back in first, so I guess I can live with it.
MATT HARMON: Despicable.
ANDY BEHRENS: We had a lot of agreement last week, but that is not going to be a problem this week. So I don't think we're all going to be tied when we sit here again in week 12.