Week 7 NFL DFS Bargains

·5 min read



In this weekly article, we’ll look at the cheaper options that should return good value to your NFL DFS lineups. The bargain threshold varies by site, and position, but generally we’ll aim for our bargain plays to take up about 8-10 percent of your salary cap, except for quarterbacks, which we’ll allow 11-12 percent. A great tool to find bargains is our DFS projection system, which gives a dollar per fantasy point projection for each player. I refer to it often!

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Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. Atlanta

I’m actually ok with using either QB from this game, but Tua is the slightly better bargain, coming off a nice game in London vs. the Jaguars in which he threw 47 times for over 300 yards, while also adding 22 yards on the ground. This is expected to be a high scoring and close game, conditions that should enable Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle (see below) worth their low salaries again this week. Atlanta ranks as the seventh-best QB matchup for fantasy and eighth-best overall matchup.

Also consider: Matt Ryan, Daniel Jones

Running Back

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay

My only hesitation on Herbert is the matchup. Even if Damien Williams returns from the illness list this weekend, Herbert is expected to play a significant role while David Montgomery is out. He’s seen 18 and 19 carries the last two weeks, and added three targets in Week 6 when Williams was out. The Bucs aren’t one of the worst rushing matchups this season, but they aren’t one of the best either. The fact that they are huge home favorites doesn’t give Herbert the game script I’d like, but he is one of the cheaper high-work options are RB this week, and has at least shown that he can be effective in favorable situations.

Michael Carter, New York Jets at New England

Carter has seen double-digit carries in three of the Jets’ last four games, and had exactly three targets in each of those as well. He scored in the two weeks heading into the Jets’ bye, and altogether seems poised to take on a bigger role for the second half of the season. This is one of the lower scoring games, and one I’m generally avoiding for DFS, but Carter makes for a contrarian bargain play for your tournament lineups if you’re looking to save at RB.

Also consider: Rhamondre Stevenson, Chris Evans, Miles Sanders

Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins vs. Atlanta

Someone was happy to see Tua back under center, right? All three of Waddle’s touchdowns have come from Tagovailoa and with Davante Parker and Preston Williams still questionable for Week 7, and the lack of any kind of effective run game, Waddle and Mike Gesicki should be busy. As noted, this could be a shootout back and forth game, another opportunity for Waddle to see 10-plus targets and hopefully the end zone.

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers vs. Washington

Our NFL DFS Optimizer loves Lazard this weekend. I wrote about the benefits of paying up for Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers in yesterday’s Starting Points, but if you like the situation more than the price tags, consider Lazard instead. I wouldn’t trust him in cash games, but Lazard is capable of big plays when Adams is being mobbed by opposing defenses. Washington is a fantastic matchup for opposing passers/receivers, in part because they can keep most games competitive.

Also consider: Sterling Shepard, Allen Robinson, Nico Collins/Chris Moore, Davonta Smith

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Tight End

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team at Green Bay

Seals-Jones has done a decent job filling in for Logan Thomas, catching nine of 15 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown in the past two weeks. He’s still very affordable on all three sites, and the Football Team should be forced once again into the position of playing catchup against Rodgers and Co. Seals-Jones is a pretty high floor TE punt option if you don’t spend up on Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston

I’m a Zach Ertz fan, so I’d like to see him do well in Arizona. The Cardinals have survived just fine without a TE, and one of the big problems with their offense from a DFS perspective is that they already have too many weapons for Kyler Murray to throw to. I’m throwing Ertz in a GPP lineup or two just in case they decide to feature him in a Welcome to Arizona Touchdown Party against the Texans. The Cardinals are huge favorites in this one, and no other team has allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than Houston.

Also consider: Mike Gesicki, Cole Kmet

Defense

Yahoo: Green Bay Packers vs. Washington ($12)

This price just jumped out at me. The Packers are home, and while we don’t get the frozen tundra advantage in mid-October, they are still a better defense there. Vegas has them as almost 10-point favorites, and over the past four weeks, the Pack is averaging over three sacks per game and at least one interception per game.

DraftKings and FanDuel: Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston ($3100 DK, $4100 FD)

Likewise, the odd team out in pricing on FanDuel and DraftKings is the Cardinals. They are 17-point home favorites, and unlike other teams that get featured in this bargain space, actually have a very good defense! Arizona averages 2.8 sacks per game, and has the third-most takeaways in the league (13 interceptions and fumble recoveries). They allow the third-fewest fantasy points and second-fewest real points to opponents. Davis Mills and the Texans really don’t stand a chance here.

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