The Week Ahead: A New British PM, Earnings, Iran, Stats and Trade in Focus

Bob Mason
It’s a big week ahead for the markets. Earnings, economic data, Iran, trade war chatter, and the ECB are all in focus.

On the Macro

For the Dollar:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

The markets will need to wait until Wednesday for July’s prelim private sector PMI numbers. A lack of material stats ahead of Wednesday’s numbers will likely leave the Dollar particularly sensitive to the numbers.

The focus will then shift to June durable goods orders due out on Thursday.

2nd estimate GDP numbers on Friday rounds off a relatively busy week.

We would expect home sales and new home sales, together with the weekly jobless claims numbers to have a muted effect.

Outside the earnings,  stats, trade war chatter and Iran will also be in focus.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.35% to $97.151.

For the EUR:

It’s also a relatively busy week ahead.

Prelim private sector PMI numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out on Wednesday.

While we would expect the EUR to be particularly sensitive to Germany’s manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone’s composite will also have a material influence on the day.

The focus will then shift to the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday. While the ECB will likely leave rates unchanged, the press conference could provide some downward pressure on the EUR.

Ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision, the EUR could also come under pressure with Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index figures due out.

FED Chair Powell pinned back the Dollar during his semi-annual testimonies, which opens the door for Draghi to deliver.

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.43% to $1.1221.

For the Pound:

Key stats are limited to July’s CBI Industrial Trend Orders, which are due out on Monday.

A lack of stats puts the result of the UK leadership in focus at the start of the week.

Boris Johnson has remained favorite to win, in spite of the talk of pulling Britain out of the EU with or without a deal. For that reason, a Johnson victory would continue to be considered a Pound negative outcome.

Much will depend on comments from the Establishment, however. Any suggestions of the EU being willing to return to the negotiating table would be a boon for the Pound.

The GBP/USD ended the week down 0.56% at $1.2502.

For the Loonie:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead.

May wholesale sales figures are due out on Monday.

While we would expect the Loonie to show a reaction to the numbers, updates from the U.S – China trade talks will continue to be the key driver. An escalation in the Middle East over Iran would also support oil prices and the Loonie.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.24% to C$1.3059 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

There are no material stats due out of Australia in the week ahead.

The lack of stats will leave market risk sentiment to provide direction throughout the week. The U.S and China will need to make progress on trade talks to support the Aussie Dollar in the week.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.31% to $0.7042.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s another quiet week ahead.

Economic data is limited to July inflation figures due out on Friday. Barring a material pickup in inflationary pressures, the stats are unlikely to have an influence on the Yen.

Through the week, chatter from Beijing and the U.S on trade, the UK leadership race, and economic data out of the U.S will influence. There will also be Iran to factor in.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up 0.19% to ¥107.71 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also another particularly quiet week ahead.

Economic data is limited to June trade data due out on Wednesday. We can expect the Kiwi to be particularly sensitive to the numbers.

Outside of the stats, expect sentiment towards FED monetary policy and any updates from the U.S – China trade talks to also influence.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up 1.06% to $0.6764.

Out of China:

There are no material stats, leaving trade war chatter to be the market driver in the week.

Geo-Politics

Trade Wars:  Still no progress on trade talks. Huawei is reportedly a stumbling block and could materially affect the course of negotiations near-term.  While we can expect plenty of chatter over the week, the one thing we won’t expect is a resolution…

UK Politics: The new leader of the Conservative Party and the British Prime Minister will be announced this week. The political games are over and the real Brexit strategy could be revealed. The markets are expecting a no-deal Johnson to step into number 10. There is also an expectation that the EU will be willing to return to the table.

Iran: Things escalated last week, with news of Iran seizing a UK tanker hitting the wires. It could go from bad to worse, which would support crude oil prices in the week ahead. Will Iran come face to face with the wrath of Trump???

The Rest

The ECB

It’s a big day for the EUR on Thursday, as the ECB delivers its July monetary policy decision. While the ECB is unlikely to make a surprise move, there could be suggestions for further easing. The FED’s dovish stance has certainly opened the door for Draghi to jawbone the EUR.

Earnings

It’s another big week ahead… Earnings releases and outlooks will not just influence the U.S majors, but also risk appetite across the global financial markets.

Corporate America:

Tuesday, 23rd July
  • Verizon Comm.
Wednesday, 24th July
  • The Boeing Corp.
  • Caterpillar Inc.
  • Ford Motor Co.
  • Tesla Inc.
  • Visa Inc.
Thursday, 25th July
  • Alphabet Inc.
  • com Inc.
  • American Airlines Group Inc.
  • Intel Corp.
  • Southwest Airlines Co.
Friday, 26th July
  • Twitter Inc.

Corporate Germany

Wednesday, 24th July
  • Daimler AG
Thursday, 25th July
  • Deutsche Bank AG
  • Volkswagen AG

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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