The week in polls: Biden gains on Trump nationally, leads in most swing states
With the 2020 election fast approaching, and voters in many states are already casting ballots, new national polls and swing states surveys are being released every day.
That flood of (often conflicting) data can be a bit overwhelming and confusing. So, each week between now and the election, USA TODAY will save you time and headache by compiling all the polling information you need to know on the state of the presidential election – as well as top Senate races and interesting glimpses at where voters stand on issues.
First, we look at the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on the national averages compiled by polling sites RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, and see how the race has shifted from the week before. Next, we look at the average polling data on key swing states. Then, we look at the latest polls on tight Senate races. Finally, we look at any interesting outliers, voter stances on important issues and any other pieces of data that jump out.
This week, Biden gained a half a percentage point in his national polling average lead over Trump, as the president reeled from damaging news reports and books, and the death toll in the U.S. from the coronavirus surpassed 200,000.
Many of the polls in the past week were conducted wholly or partially before Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, so it remains to be seen how Trump's push to fill her seat with Judge Amy Coney Barrett will affect the race.
National average
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.1%, Trump 42.9% (Biden +7.2)
Last week: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.2% (Biden +6.7)
Net change: Biden +0.5
RCP: 49.8% Biden, 42.8% Trump
FiveThirtyEight: 50.3% Biden, 43.0% Trump
Swing state averages
Arizona: Biden +3.6
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.4%, Trump 44.8%
Florida: Biden + 1.6
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.4%, Trump 46.8%
Georgia: Trump +1.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.8%, Biden 45.6%
Michigan: Biden +6.1
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.6%, Trump 43.5%
Minnesota: Biden +9.1
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.6%, Trump 41.5%
Nevada: Biden +5.9%
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.9%, Trump 43.0%
North Carolina: Biden +1.0
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.3%, Trump 46.3%
Ohio: Biden +2.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.5%, Trump 46.3%
Pennsylvania: Biden +4.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.4%, Trump 44.6%
Texas: Trump +2.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 47.9%, Biden 45.2%
Wisconsin: Biden +6.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.7%, Trump 43.8%
USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll: Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 7 points in battleground Minnesota
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Senate races
Arizona
After months of polls showing former astronaut Mark Kelly with a commanding lead over Republican Sen. Martha McSally, the race has tightened to a dead heat, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Wednesday.
The ABC/Post poll, conducted from Sept. 15-20, found McSally trailing by just one percentage point among likely voters, 49%-48%.
Iowa
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is a tough battle for a second term against Democrat Theresa Greenfield. Two polls released Thursday found Greenfield with a narrow lead over Ernst.
A New York Times/Sienna College poll found Greenfield up 42% to 40%, and a Monmouth University poll found Greenfield up 49%-46% if voter turnout is high and 48%-47% if turnout is low.
Maine
Veteran GOP Sen. Susan Collins remains in a tight contest with her Democratic challenger in the closely watched Maine Senate race. A poll released by Colby College found Democrat Sara Gideon, the speaker of the Maine House, leading Collins with 45% support among registered Maine voters to the incumbent's 41%.
Michigan
At least eight polls were released last week on the race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and his Republican challenger, businessman John James. All eight polls found Peters in the lead by margins ranging from 2-8 percentage points.
The most recent poll, conducted Sept. 19 through 23 by NBC News/Marist College, found Peters up 49%-44%.
Montana
After an Emerson College poll found incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines leading Gov. Steve Bullock by six percentage points in August, a New York Times/Sienna College poll released Sept. 20 found Bullock had closed to within one point of Daines. Bullock has won three statewide elections in Montana – once as attorney general and twice as governor in a state Trump carried by more than 20 points in 2016.
Battle for Senate control: Here are the 2020 Senate races to watch as the COVID-19 election comes into focus
Poll-pourri
Cities under siege
Roughly two-thirds (64%) of Americans say they believe protesters and counter-protesters are overwhelming American cities, according to a USA TODAY/Ipsos poll.
Demonstrators have gathered for months to denounce racial discrimination and police brutality after several high-profile cases in which Black Americans were killed or injured by officers.
Significantly more Republicans (83%) than Democrats (48%) say cities are under siege, 83% to 48%, and those who live in rural areas (71%) are more likely to agree with that sentiment than those in urban areas (59%).
Swing state voters: Don't fill RBG seat before election
An NBC News/Marist poll found the majority of likely voters in Michigan (54%) and Wisconsin (56%) say that the Supreme Court seat left vacant by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg should be filled by the winner of the 2020 presidential election.
Thirty-seven percent of likely Wisconsin voters and 35% of likely Michigan voters said Trump should fill the seat immediately.
A 'crisis' election
A majority of Biden voters and half of Trump voters think it will be a national crisis if their presidential candidate loses the election, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll.
The found that 59% of voters who support Biden think it will be a "crisis" if Trump wins. Twenty-three percent said it would be a "setback, but not a crisis," and 15% said it would be "OK."
Fifty percent of Trump voters said it would be a crisis if Biden wins, 28% said it would be a setback and 15% said it would be OK.
Contributing: Phillip M. Bailey, Rebecca Morin and Sarah Elbeshbishi
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Biden gains on Trump, leads most swing states in this week's polls
