As millions of Americans continue to cast their ballots in early voting, the polls have finally caught up to most of the biggest news events around the campaign, and their results include voter reactions to the first debate, the vice presidential debate, Trump's COVID-19 infection and his subsequent recovery.
They have found Biden still holding a commanding lead nationally (though down slightly from last week) and leading in 10 of 12 swing states. But Trump regained a slight polling average lead in Ohio and ate a big chunk out of Biden's leads in Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Trump also erased much of Biden's gains in Florida from last week. Some Democrats had hoped those gains signaled Biden was pulling away in the crucial Sunshine State.
The USA TODAY average of averages is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. This week, we added Iowa to the list of swing states we are monitoring between now and the Nov. 3 election.
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
Net change: Trump +0.3
RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4%
FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7%
At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5
Swing state averages
Arizona: Biden +3.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5%
Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2% (Biden +3.3)
Net change: Biden +0.5
Florida: Biden +2.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.0%
Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5% (Biden +4.0)
Net change: Trump +1.3
Georgia: Biden +1.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.9%, Trump 46.6%
Last week: Biden 47.1%, Trump 46.9% (Biden +0.2)
Net change: Biden +1.1
Iowa: Biden +0.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 47.0%
Last week: NA
Net change: NA
Michigan: Biden +7.5
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 42.9%
Last week: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.2% (Biden +7.3)
Net change: Biden +0.2
Minnesota: Biden +7.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.0%, Trump 41.2%
Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 41.1% (Biden +9.3)
Net change: Trump +1.5
Nevada: Biden +5.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 43.4%
Last week: Biden 50.2%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +6.4)
Net change: Trump +0.5
North Carolina: Biden +2.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.8%, Trump 45.9%
Last week: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.5% (Biden +2.2)
Net change: Biden +0.7
Ohio: Trump +0.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.7%, Biden 46.4%
Last week: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +0.7)
Net change: Trump +1.0
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.5
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.5%
Last week: Biden 51.0%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +7.2)
Net change: Trump +1.7
Texas: Trump +2.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.9%, Biden 46.0%
Last week: Trump 48.8%, Biden 45.8% (Trump +3.0)
Net change: Biden +0.1
Wisconsin: Biden +6.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6% (Biden +6.3)
Net change: Biden +0.4
Alabama: Don't count Jones out?
Polling has been relatively sparse on the Senate race between Sen. Doug Jones, a Democrat who eked out a surprise special election victory in 2017, and former football coach Tommy Tuberville, but the three surveys conducted since the end of July have found Jones trailing by double-digits.
According to a FM3 Research poll released Friday, however, Jones is not out of the race. The survey found him leading Tuberville by 1 point, 48%-47%, among Alabama voters.
Maine: Collins down 7 points to Gideon in new poll
Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins continues to trail state House Speaker Sara Gideon, according to Pan Atlantic Research's Omnibus Poll which found Gideon up 47%-40%. Most polls for the past few months have Gideon with a slight lead and she is up by 4.2 points in the RCP polling average.
Montana: Signs of life for Bullock
After an Emerson College poll last week found Sen. Steve Daines leading former Gov. Steve Bullock 52%-43% among likely Montana voters, two polls this week indicated the race is virtually dead even.
A Public Policy Polling survey released Monday found Bullock and Daines tied among registered voters and a poll from Montana State University-Bozeman released Wednesday found Bullock leading Daines 49%-47%.
North Carolina: Can Cunningham survive texting scandal?
It remains to be seen how much political fallout Democrat Cal Cunningham will suffer after admitting he had sent texts of a sexual nature to a woman who is not his wife.
An Emerson College poll conducted since the scandal broke and released Thursday found Cunningham had slipped 5 points to a 45%-44% lead over Sen. Thom Tillis since its last poll on the race in September. But a Siena College/New York Times survey released Wednesday found Cunningham up 41%-37% over Tillis, just a 1-point slip for Cunningham from the month before.
A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday found Cunningham's lead had grown in the past month by between 1 and 5 points, depending on the level of turnout. Only 14% said the texts were disqualifying, while 51% said the issue was a private matter and 32% said the scandal called his character into question.
"North Carolinians may frown on Cunningham’s behavior but few think it has any bearing on his fitness for office," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
South Carolina: Graham pulling away from Harrison?
After several recent polls that found Sen. Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie with his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, a New York Times/Siena College poll on Thursday found the incumbent with a 46%-40% lead. It was the second survey to find Graham with a 6-point lead this week after a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday found him up 48%-42%.
Most minds are made up: Who's undecided? Donald Trump's toughest hurdle to pull off a win
A Georgia peach of an outlier?
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Biden up 7 points among likely voters in Georgia, 51%-44%. Most other polls in the state have indicated a much tighter race, including one released the same day by SurveyUSA that found Biden up by 2 points, 48%-46%.
The Quinnipiac poll also found Biden and Trump in an essential dead-heat in Ohio, with Biden at 48% among likely voters and Trump at 47%.
White Christian support for Trump slips
Though Trump still leads Biden in overall support among White Christians in the U.S., that support dropped by 8 points among White Catholics to 52%-44%; 6 points among White non-evangelical Protestants to 53%-43% and 5 points among White evangelicals to 78%-17%, according to a Pew Research Center poll.
The poll found Biden leading among all other religious groups surveyed, including Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Jews and the religiously unaffiliated.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Election 2020 polls: Trump surges in Florida, Biden up in Georgia