Weekly COVID-19 update puts Arizona above 2 million total known cases and 29,200 deaths

Arizona's weekly COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are continuing decreases seen since the most recent surge of the virus in January.

Health officials on Wednesday reported 10,143 new COVID-19 cases and 385 new known deaths over the weeklong period ending March 26.

The high case addition is because most of the cases are from a reporting partner adding cases and tests dating back to October, according to state health officials. Just over 2,000 new cases were added for the past week, state data shows, continuing recent weeks' lower case reports.

Reported cases since the pandemic began are at more than 2 million, and known deaths in Arizona passed 29,200.

Wednesday marked the fifth of the weekly updates to the state's data dashboard, instead of daily updates that Arizonans became accustomed to following for the latest data on infections, illnesses and deaths.

The previous week's update added 4,566 cases and 336 deaths, compared with 5,153 cases and 457 deaths, 6,549 cases and 382 deaths, and 9,647 cases and 449 deaths the three weeks prior.

This week's update shows the differences between data reported for the week of March 20-26 and the week of March 13-19.

Health officials say moving to weekly updates matches how public health monitors trends and other disease reporting.

Case numbers have been declining significantly, and public health experts estimate cases of the highly contagious omicron variant peaked in Arizona around mid-January.

Hospitalizations for the disease have been dropping steadily since late January.

This week there was a daily average of about 430 patients hospitalized across Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19, continuing a steady decrease over roughly the past nine weeks. An average of about 170 ICU beds were available across the state.

The number of known deaths in the state was at 29,268 as of Wednesday, after passing 28,000 known deaths in the March 9 update, 7,000 deaths on Feb. 10 and 26,000 deaths on Jan. 28. The state surpassed 25,000 deaths on Jan. 13. Deaths are now reported with a four-week lag.

Arizona's overall pandemic death rate since early 2020 is third-highest nationwide.

State data on breakthrough infections

The state in December began publicly disclosing data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, and state officials say the data underscores the effectiveness of the vaccine — especially for people with booster doses.

The vast majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are among people not fully vaccinated and boosted.

Data from January show that 43.2% of cases, 31.5% of hospitalizations and 28.6% of COVID-19 deaths were among fully vaccinated people without a booster, with nearly all the rest among unvaccinated people. Fully vaccinated people with a booster made up 2.8% of reported cases, 1.9% of hospitalizations and 1.6% of deaths in January.

Unvaccinated adults in Arizona had an 11 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19, 67 times greater risk of hospitalization from COVID-19 and 180 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 in January compared with fully vaccinated people with a booster, according to state data.

Unvaccinated adults had a 1.3 times greater risk of testing positive, 4.1 times greater risk of hospitalization and 7.2 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 compared with individuals who were fully vaccinated without a booster.

As of March 23, there had been 1,683 breakthrough deaths in fully vaccinated individuals, according to state health officials’ preliminary data, which works out to a breakthrough death rate of 0.04% among fully vaccinated people.

Case rates and death reports

The omicron variant remains dominant in Arizona, according to results from sequencing labs, which are also showing an increase in the prevalence of another version of omicron, BA.2.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it's measured. It was high in recent weeks, a sign of more community spread, but has been gradually decreasing.

For most of December, Arizona's percent positivity for COVID-19 testing was at 11%-13%, before rising to 22% for the week of Dec. 26, 29% for the week of Jan. 2, 32% for the week of Jan. 9, 34% for the week of Jan. 16, 29% for the week of Jan. 23, 22% for the week of Jan. 30, 16% for the week of Feb. 6, 11% for the week of Feb. 13, 7% for the week of Feb. 20, 4% for the week of Feb. 27, 3% for the week of Mar. 6, 3% for the week of Mar. 13 and 3% for the week of Mar. 20. The percentages are now for all diagnostic tests conducted, rather than for unique individuals tested, following a change to the state dashboard.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the disease's spread is under control.

The state's overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020 still remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 396 deaths per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, putting it third in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 293 deaths per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 477 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by Mississippi at 416.

Arizona's first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks before because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 2,007,180 COVID-19 cases had been identified across the state through March 26.

Hospitalizations continue to drop

The Arizona data dashboard shows an average of 90% of all ICU beds and 93% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use this week, with 7% of ICU beds and 5% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Statewide, an average of 168 ICU beds and 620 non-ICU beds were available this week.

The number of patients hospitalized in Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19 cases was at 429 one day this week, lower than previous weeks. During the week of Jan. 25, the daily average was 3,432 inpatients. The record was a daily average of 4,955 during the week of Jan. 5, 2021.

The number of patients with suspected or known COVID-19 in ICUs across Arizona has continued to drop and was at 113 this week, compared with about 125-160 for the previous two weeks. The record high was about 1,132 ICU patients during the week of Jan. 12, 2021.

Arizonans with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 on ventilators were reported at 39 this week, after sharp drops in February. The record-high daily average of 799 was for the week of Jan. 12, 2021. During the summer 2020 surge, mid-July was the peak for ventilator use, with a daily average of 646 patients.

This week's report shows an average of 1,036 patients seen daily in Arizona emergency rooms for COVID-19, a number that's held pretty steady over the past month. The record high came the week of Jan. 11, when an average of 2,325 positive or suspected COVID-19 patients were seen daily in emergency departments across the state.

Vaccination update

Arizonans age 5 and older are eligible for the Pfizer vaccine, while the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are approved for those 18 and older. Many individuals are eligible for booster doses, too.

The state reported over 5 million people in Arizona — about 70.2% of the total state population — had received at least one vaccine dose through March 26, with over 4.3 million residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The state’s data dashboard now separates out doses administered to Arizona residents versus all doses administered in the state.

Arizona's rate of fully vaccinated people out of the total population is 60.9%, which is behind the national rate of 65.5%, according to the CDC as of Tuesday.

Out of the vaccine-eligible population, people age 5 and older, 64.7% of those in Arizona are fully vaccinated, compared with 69.6% at the national level, CDC data shows.

Health experts strongly recommend booster shots for those eligible, especially with the omicron variant spreading. About 43.8% of fully vaccinated Arizonans over the age of 18 had received a booster shot as of Tuesday, below the national rate of 48.2% for that same age group.

What to know about latest numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 2,007,180, as of March 26.

Cases by county: 1,268,293 in Maricopa; 252,925 in Pima; 130,396 in Pinal; 62,571 in Yuma; 57,289 in Mohave; 47,756 in Yavapai; 43,404 in Coconino; 38,081 in Navajo; 31,305 in Cochise; 22,205 in Apache; 17,018 in Gila; 16,611 in Santa Cruz; 11,939 in Graham; 5,172 in La Paz; and 2,215 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Navajo County, followed by Graham, Apache, Gila and Maricopa counties, according to state data. The rate in Navajo County is 33,752 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 24,045 cases per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 52,933 cases and 1,728 confirmed deaths as of Tuesday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 14,851 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Tuesday, including 2,473 in Tucson, 2,281 in Eyman, 2,234 in Yuma, 1,714 in Lewis and 1,166 in Phoenix; 54,358 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 5,007 prison staff members have self-reported testing positive, the department said. Fifty-eight incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 15 additional deaths under investigation.

The race/ethnicity breakdown of cases since the start of the pandemic in 2020 has been 40% white, 29% Hispanic or Latino, 5% American Indian, 4% Black and 2% Asian/Pacific Islander. Race/ethnicity of positive cases since the onset of the pandemic is unknown in 14% of cases, and listed as other race in 6% of cases.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, about 21% were younger than 20, 42% were 20-44, 13% were 45-54, 11% were 55-64 and 12% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories had completed 18,847,342 total diagnostic tests for COVID-19 as of March 26, 12.2% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. Percent positivity was at 3% for the week of Mar. 20. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The state Health Department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes.

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results, Mayo Clinic officials said. They say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.

Arizona as of Tuesday had the 12th highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are Alaska, Rhode Island, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, South Carolina, Guam, West Virginia, Arkansas and New York City, according to the CDC.

Arizona's infection rate is 27,437 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 24,045 cases per 100,000 people, although the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 29,268

Deaths by county: 16,686 in Maricopa; 3,773 in Pima; 1,594 in Pinal; 1,424 in Mohave; 1,182 in Yavapai; 1,162 in Yuma; 877 in Navajo; 601 in Apache; 558 in Cochise; 469 in Coconino; 372 in Gila; 227 in Santa Cruz; 172 in Graham; 139 in La Paz; and 32 in Greenlee.

People age 65 and older make up 20,753 of the 29,268 deaths, or 71%. About 16% of deaths were among people 55-64 years old, 8% were 45-54 and 5% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 6% of deaths, 54% of those who died were white, 26% were Hispanic or Latino, 7% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data shows.

The global death toll as of Wednesday was 6,135,408. The U.S. had the highest death count of any country in the world, at 978,772, followed by Brazil at 659,508 and India at 521,101, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Arizona's 29,268 deaths represent about 3% of COVID-19 deaths in the United States.

Republic reporter Stephanie Innes contributed to this article.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: March 30 Ariz. COVID-19 weekly update adds 10,143 cases, 385 deaths