Welcome rain for Rochester: September was dry. What about October in NY?

William Ramsey, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
·4 min read
1
One of our summer 2023 rains soaked downtown Rochester, but September was parched. October won't be.
One of our summer 2023 rains soaked downtown Rochester, but September was parched. October won't be.

Rain has arrived, and it's being welcomed.

As weather dips from hot, late summer-like days in Rochester to a more typical, much lower temperature, we will see more rain than the last five or so weeks.

Rochester, New York,* as of Oct. 5 was a bit parched. We had gotten half an inch below normal in the first 5 days of October, said Bob Hamilton, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Buffalo.

And the area received 1.8 inches below normal in the month of September.

The summer was wet:

  • Rochester registered 2.1 inches of rain above normal in August.

  • There were 3.25 inches above normal in July.

  • June was average.

"We’re going to make that (dry September) up in the next few days," Hamilton said on Thursday. On Friday, it's raining. Here's an emoji version of the outlook from Accuweather:

Today/Friday: 🌧️ 🌧️ 🌧️

Saturday: 🌧️

Sunday: 🌧️ 🧥

Monday: 🌥️

Tuesday: ☁️ ☁️ 🌧️

Wednesday: ☁️ ☁️ 🍁

Thursday: ☁️ ☁️ 🍁

Friday: 🌧️ ☁️

Saturday: 🌧️ ☁️

Drought forecast for the Northeast

From Brad Pugh at NOAA and Curtis Riganti, National Drought Mitigation Center:

"A drier-than-normal September led to an expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate short-term drought across the Upper Ohio Valley, Eastern Corn Belt, and western parts of Pennsylvania, New York, and West Virginia. ...

Northeast: ... Severe drought was added to western New York, based on 60-day SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and 28-day average streamflows below the 10th percentile. Despite near to above-average precipitation last month, longer-term precipitation deficits support a continuation of (dry conditions) across parts of southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and eastern West Virginia.

Check out our fall foliage coverage at democratandchronicle.com.
Check out our fall foliage coverage at democratandchronicle.com.

Looking ahead to October forecast in New York

"During the next five days (October 5-9, 2023), a strong cold front is forecast to progress across the central and eastern U.S. with precipitation amounts of an inch or less across the Ohio Valley with heavier amounts (locally more than 2 inches) for southeastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas. The remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe may become entrained within this eastward-advancing cold front and bring heavy rain and flooding to New England on October 7 and 8. ... A major temperature pattern change is likely during this 5-day period as cooler-than-normal temperatures overspread the central and eastern U.S.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid October 10-14, 2023) favors above-normal precipitation along the Gulf and East Coasts."

Check out our FALL FOLIAGE coverage:

Where is the peak foliage in NY?:

Vibrant peak fall colors are aplenty in the Adirondacks and are starting to emerge in other parts of the Empire state, including the Catskills and in western New York.

5 destinations for stunning fall foliage photos in the Finger Lakes:

They say "Ithaca is gorges" with good reason. Located at the southern end of Cayuga Lake, autumnal views are breathtaking in Ithaca.

Adirondacks fall foliage 2023: Where to see best colors this weekend:

Look for shades of cinnamon, copper, honey, dandelion, pumpkin, saffron, magenta, cranberry, and vermillion-colored leaves of above average brilliance.

Fall foliage in the Finger Lakes 2023: Where to see best colors this weekend:

Spotters in Cortland predict foliage will be at midpoint of change with 45% transition and average to bright shades of red and yellow.

7 must-try restaurants while enjoying fall foliage in the Finger Lakes:

Get some homemade dumplings at Kemmeter Wines ― run by husband and wife Johannes and Imelda Reinhardt —in Penn Yan, Yates County. It's takeaway only, but there are picnic tables for enjoying them on nice days.

Photos: Fall brings a canopy of color to the area:

Lake Road in Webster looks like a ribbon with the dips and rises.

Will climate change affect the fall colors in Upstate New York and Rochester in 2023?:

Yes.

* I have fully learned now, after an earlier error this summer, that there is a Rochester International Airport weather station in both New York and Minnesota! Mistakes bug us more than anything. It's not much comfort that we are not the only ones who get mixed up in the data. Recently, a climate expert mentioned Rochester, New York, had a record dry summer. Top 10 driest. Luckily, the feedback from D&C readers had me on my toes and we caught the boo-boo in real time on the phone.

Executive editor: 'City on Fire' shows our connection to real Rochester issues

The Democrat & Chronicle has been investigating the effects of a rapidly heating planet on people who live in our city. Contact D&C journalist William Ramsey with any ideas for coverage of weather or general climate impact. Also, we are hiring for a weather/climate reporter!

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Rainfall in western NY: Oct. outlook for Rochester has precipitation