What went wrong for Phoenix Rising in disastrous 2022 season?

On April 23, Phoenix Rising hosted Miami FC and won, 2-1. Luis Seijas’ winner made SportsCenter’s top 10. Rising carried a six-match winning streak in all competitions. In USL play, they were 5-0-2.

Everything was good. For a club that had long established itself among the USL’s elite, that meant everything was normal.

Then, the season changed. Over the next three months, Rising won just twice in 15 games. They cratered all the way out of the playoff positions. Eventually, on Aug. 17, longtime manager Rick Schantz was fired.

The disastrous season has one game left — on Saturday against Atlanta United II — but it met its competitive end last weekend, when a loss to the RGV Toros ensured Rising would miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

So, where did it all go so wrong?

No Solomon Asante replacement

From 2018 to 2021, Rising was either the Western Conference regular season champions or the Western Conference playoff champions. It’s no coincidence that, in each of those seasons, they had Solomon Asante starring on the right wing. In 114 appearances with the club, Asante scored 54 goals and assisted 44 more.

This season, without Asante, no attacker came close to that production. Winger Santi Moar went from scoring 16 goals last season to just one this year. Marcus Epps, a right winger, was signed in the off-season to replicate the six goals and five assists he provided for Tulsa in 2021, but struggled mightily before being traded in July. JJ Williams, whom Epps was traded for, sparked in flashes at striker but was never consistent enough.

As a result, Phoenix produced just 60 plays defined as big chances by Opta this season. That’s down from 86 last year. It’s not surprising, then, that they’ve scored 19 fewer goals

“In the final third, we've gotta be better,” manager Juan Guerra said. “We have to take more risks. We have to make sure that we're more successful in our one-v-ones. We have to make sure that we deliver earlier crosses that can lead to more scoring opportunities.”

Too much tinkering

For the entirety of Schantz’s tenure until this year, Rising had a simple ideology. They played a 4-3-3 formation and pressed opponents mercilessly, creating transition moments.

But in the off-season, Schantz spoke of wanting to be more versatile and capable of switching formations when needed — likely as a means of adding the sort of pragmatism required to win playoff games, a noted shortcoming of the club under Schantz.

In 2022, though, Rising took versatility to the extreme. As soon as things started to go wrong in May, Schantz began tinkering. At different times, he toyed with playing five at the back, three at the back, four in the midfield, two up top, trying to be more defensive and trying to be more possession-based. The result was a team that never had a clear identity, until Schantz went back to his roots in July. By then, it was too late.

Just look at what midfielder Luis Seijas said on Aug. 31, after Rising’s first win under Guerra.

“We are going to that identity of Juan’s,” Seijas said. “That's important. You don't change patterns from one day to another.”

Lack of depth at key positions

During Rising’s late-Spring tailspin, Schantz repeatedly blamed injuries for his team’s struggles. The club Rising did suffer injury woes, the impact of those injuries was their own doing.

By far the two most damaging injuries were to center-back James Musa, who missed 10 of the first 11 USL games, and defensive midfielder Kevon Lambert, who missed parts of six games right at the turning point of the season in May and June.

Those two players comprised the spine of Rising’s team — the stabilizing force in the middle of the pitch. Yet, Phoenix didn’t have a capable replacement for either. When Musa was out, Lambert had to play center back, creating a domino effect of instability in a midfield that often played with too many creative players and not enough players who can control a game.

Eventually, Rising signed players to deputize at those positions, but they need to prioritize depth in the middle during the off-season. The trade-off might be fewer options at outside back and attacking midfield, but those holes are easier to cover up.

Midfield disappointed

Before this season, Rising’s midfield was tabbed as its biggest strength. In Lambert, Aodhan Quinn and Arturo Rodriguez, the unit had three returners all considered among the best midfielders in USL.

Instead, the trio never quite clicked. Part of that was injuries, but each had disappointing seasons to varying degrees even when healthy.

In addition to their aforementioned struggles creating chances, Rising managed just 48.64% possession — their first time below 50% since 2018. Critically, their passing accuracy in their own half was the worst it’s been since 2017. That produced a common theme all season: Turnovers leading to big chances for the opposition.

“We have to start avoiding those transition moments in which we're building out at times and it's just cheap, easy giveaways,” Guerra said. “... Sometimes we look very good and other times, we just look poor.”

Theo Mackie covers Arizona high school sports and Phoenix Rising FC. He can be reached by email at theo.mackie@gannett.com and on Twitter @theo_mackie.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: What went wrong for Phoenix Rising in disastrous 2022 season?