'We're definitely turning the page now': A week of rain, cooler temps forecast for Phoenix area
Last Tuesday, widespread monsoon storm hit a majority of the Valley, bringing residents much-needed relief. Will that continue this week, and will it finally reach Phoenix?
August is usually the peak month for monsoon storms, and the Valley is on the path to have a wetter later half to the monsoon season. Rainstorms are forecast every day this week until Sunday.
"Today and tomorrow, we'll have some decent chances of rain and then it's going to dry out in the middle of the week and heat up," said National Weather Service Phoenix meteorologist Matt Salerno. "This weekend, on Saturday and Sunday, rain chances will increase dramatically."
Along with these storms, a drop in temperatures — under 110 degrees — is forecast as well. Temperatures under 100 degrees are even possible this week.
Since the season started, 144 days have passed with no measurable rainfall at Sky Harbor Airport as most storms have skipped downtown Phoenix. Because of this, this year is tied with 1995 for the driest start to the monsoon season in metro Phoenix on record.
Back in 1995, Phoenix did not see measurable rain until Aug. 14, and if the city does not see rain tonight, Phoenix will break that record. But is it likely Phoenix can keep the tie?
When will it rain and what are the chances?
The rain showers are forecast to begin Monday night and early Tuesday morning, with a 30% chance mainly between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. across the Valley with a low of 90 degrees. This is following a daytime high of 108 degrees.
These rainstorms may creep into Tuesday afternoon with a 30% chance of storms forecast after 11 a.m. That evening before 11 p.m., the chances increase to 40%.
Wednesday could also have some daytime storms as there is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11 a.m., but the afternoon will be mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 111 degrees and no chances of rain that evening.
On Thursday, chances increase again with a 20% chance of daytime showers and thunderstorms after 11 a.m. and a 30% chance of storms into the evening.
During the weekend, chances shoot up and become more consistent all day, with Friday having a forecast 40% chance of showers all day and a high of 108 degrees. On Saturday, storm chances increase to 50% with a high of 100 degrees and a low of 83 degrees.
Following those storms, Sunday holds onto a 40% chance of showers all day with one of the lowest high temperatures forecast this summer so far — 98 degrees.
How widespread will the rain be in Phoenix?
Salerno said the weather this week is the highest forecast chances for Sky Habor to finally see rain this season, as the storms will be more consistent and widespread.
Storms will tend to gravitate toward the East Valley and near the Superstition Mountains, and it is unlikely the record will continue to be tied, according to Salerno.
"Unfortunately, Phoenix is not going to reap the benefits tonight, but tomorrow we're going to have scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area; hopefully one can make it to central Phoenix," Salerno said.
The best chances for seeing the most widespread downpour will be this weekend, and it is likely that is when Phoenix's dry streak will come to an end.
When did it last rain in Phoenix?
The East Valley got almost an inch of rain last Tuesday with strong winds and lightning, but that monsoon storm skipped Phoenix, continuing the city's dry spell.
The heaviest activity was in the East Valley and areas outside of downtown Phoenix, with pockets of Chandler and Scottsdale receiving more than a half inch of rain and some areas up to 0.70 inch. Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport recorded no rain, while much of central Phoenix received only trace amounts.
Before that, the last storm to hit the Valley was on July 26, which slammed parts of Phoenix and the East Valley in Mesa and Apache Junction. Up to 0.94 inch of rain was recorded in Paradise Valley.
That storm did reach more of central Phoenix than Tuesday's storm but barely, with only 0.04 inch of rain recorded, but Sky Harbor recorded no measurable rain.
When will temperatures cool down?
After a record-breaking summer of heat, temperatures are not expected to drastically cool anytime soon. The month of August is still forecast to be a dry and hot month and although it has been slightly cooler than last month, over-110-degree temperatures have persisted.
Occasionally, monsoon rains are able to cool temperatures temporarily and this week may be a clear example of that, but the cool weather is not expected to remain.
"We're definitely turning the page now," Salerno said. "Mid-August to potentially the later half of this month is looking like we'll have better chances of storms moving forward."
The National Weather Service Phoenix predicts that temperatures will not consistently drop below 100 degrees until late September and around the beginning of fall.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Phoenix-area weather: Valley could see a week of rain, cooler temps
