West Coast power grid at mercy of climate change — and prices may soar, study finds
Heat waves and threats of drought along the West Coast could jeopardize the region’s power grid, two studies from North Carolina State University found.
The effects could carry over to your utility bill, too. According to the research, rising heat means higher demand for climate control, including air conditioning, which will stress the West Coast power grid.
The first study of the duo, published in the Earth’s Future journal on Dec. 7, 2021, examined how climate change would affect the power grid across the West Coast. The second study, dated Dec. 28, examined if the switch to more eco-friendly power sources, like solar and wind, would make a difference in the vitality of a power grid.
The answer? Regardless of which kind of power is used to generate electricity for the West Coast, it falls to the mercy of climate change.
“Our key finding was that as the grid decarbonizes, you are still going to be left with that vulnerability to water and heat,” Jordan Kern, assistant professor of forestry and environment resources at NC State said about the study. “This is a system that can’t run away from that.”
According to the researchers, the electric power grid is heavily influenced by weather patterns, including heat waves and dwindling water supplies. Climate change may make this influence more prominent over time, the study said, since residents will have a higher demand for electricity, such as air conditioning and cooling systems.
The study also acknowledged that the West Coast grid system is connected to the Northwest system.
The study concluded that rising heat in California could require more electricity pulled from the shared power grid in the Northwest, impacting price and reliability of power in both areas.
In order to gauge just how bad a worst-case scenario would be for the West Coast’s power, researchers modeled different scenarios of varying severity. Based on the modules, the maximum shortfall for the entire West Coast power grid could last up to 72 hours, across 31 years.
The warmer it gets, the less stable the grid becomes, Kern said.
“As it gets hotter and hotter and hotter, and demand for electricity gets higher, we expect the grid to fail,” Kern said. “Those extreme heat events are going to become much more severe.”
Prices will go up, too, for all of the Pacific Northwest if California gets too hot, since the regions share power. If the demand for electricity in California rose high enough, it could result in the Pacific Northwest running out of power for its own residents.
The most likely time of year for the West Coast to experience these stresses are in the summer and early fall, according to the study. If demand was high enough in the Pacific Northwest and California at once, electricity could reach a price of $1,000 per megawatt per hour in California.
Regardless of what type of energy is used, from solar to fossil fuels, the grid system can’t escape the effects of climate change, including price increases and blackouts, according to the research. But there are still some differences between eco-friendly power and the current grid.
According to Kern, as the grid uses more wind and solar energy, the price of electricity will lower overall. But the growing popularity of electric-powered vehicles could contribute to higher power demand, the study added.
In the end, the researchers concluded that even as the West Coast grid decarbonizes, severe weather will continue to impact the accessibility and price of electricity.
“The persistent vulnerability of the US West Coast power system to droughts and heat waves as seen in the summers of 2020 and 2021 will continue to pose significant challenges for utilities, system planners, and regulatory bodies even as more variable renewable energy is added to the system,” the study concluded. “In fact, large amounts of wind and solar capacity may lead to significant levels of curtailment while still being unable to meet reliability requirements. In order to operate reliably, the current dependence on hydropower in this system may still require significant amounts of natural gas capacity to meet load during a drought.”
According to data from a Washington Post analysis, more than 40 percent of Americans live in counties hit by climate disasters in 2021.
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