West Virginia at Penn State predictions: How will Drew Allar fare in his debut?

Penn State opens its season Saturday night against West Virginia on NBC and in front of what should be a massive crowd in Beaver Stadium. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Mountaineers.

Allar is worth the hype

This doesn’t feel like I’m going too far out on a limb but it’s still worth discussing. Saturday night could be a momentous night for the James Franklin era of Penn State football. This is arguably his best team and it will be led by his most talented quarterback. It is unlikely that Drew Allar — who will almost certainly start despite technically not being named the starter — will break career records in his time as a Nittany Lion but that’s partially because, if things go well, he won’t be in school for more than two more seasons. He’s that level of talent and the type of player that NFL scouts will probably try to get their eyes on this year to preempt what’s coming down the road.

For now, he’s nowhere near that benchmark. He’s a sophomore starting quarterback with endless talent but limited experience. That being said, I fully expect him to put on a show this season and Saturday night is an excellent opportunity for him to do that for the first time. West Virginia’s defense is far from vaunted and should be ripe for the picking for Allar in his debut. He has the arm talent and the highlight reel ability to make a defense look foolish and I’m betting that happens to the Mountaineers at least once in the game. The sophomore will drop his arm down and throw side arm to fit passes into windows and is more than capable of throwing a no-look pass or two.

Those plays will be plastered on social media if they happen, but they’ll be outweighed by how consistent I expect him to be in the game. Surely there will be ups and downs. He’s a first-time starter, after all, but there’s a reason everyone glows about his poise. Saturday night will either give Penn State fans reason to believe this team can be everything it aspires to be, or it will slow that faith. My money is on the former.

Finding a No. 1 receiver

Long term, Allar’s ability and performance will dictate how good this offense can be. But the second biggest area of importance is what the wide receivers look like for the Nittany Lions against WVU. KeAndre Lambert-Smith is expected to be the No. 1 option on the outside with Harrison Wallace III as the No. 2. There positions at the top of the depth chart seem strong, but even they have questions coming into the year. Lambert-Smith has flashed brilliance thanks to his route running and athleticism, but he’s struggled with drops in the past. Wallace is unproven and is still evolving into being a true wide receiver. Even so, they’re both good enough to start and can improve the team’s ceiling if Lambert-Smith fixes his drop issues and Wallace becomes more polished as a route runner.

Beyond them, though, things get really murky. In my depth chart projection this week, I had Liam Clifford as the team’s slot receiver. I don’t know that he’s going to start, but he seems to be one of the more consistent receivers beyond the top two and that’s an area wide receivers coach Marques Hagans has emphasized leading up to the season. There are other options, though, with higher upside. Kaden Saunders enrolled in January 2022 as a five-star recruit but redshirted his freshman year. Dante Cephas joined the program from Kent State after putting up big numbers in the MAC, but has yet to establish himself as a clear starter. Omari Evans has elite speed but still has to work on the finer points of playing the position after playing quarterback in high school just two years ago.

Saturday night will likely be a mixed bag in that regard with the top two getting as many snaps as they can handle and the rest of the room figuring out where they fit in. The upside is that Lambert-Smith and Wallace are versatile, allowing outside receivers to come in when one of them moves into the slot. That should help with rotation this week as the team deciphers who should be the third receiver. It helps, too, that tight end Theo Johnson should be an elite pass catcher and alleviate some of that stress on the offense. Still, this is the start of the process for a team in need of a third starting receiver — and for its top two to continue growing into their potential.

Establishing an elite defense

I don’t think many people are going to be questioning Penn State’s defense after this weekend — and frankly if they are it’s a terrible sign for what the Nittany Lions want to achieve this year. This group should be one of the absolute best in the country. I don’t know if that’s top three or top five but it’s up there. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has the ability to marry an elite pass rush with an elite secondary and that’s going to leave opposing offenses without many places to go when they want to throw the ball. It’s hard enough to get passes off when defensive ends like Chop Robinson, Adisa Isaac and Dani Dennis-Sutton are barreling down on you. It’s even harder when Kalen King and Johnny Dixon are taking up the personal space of your receivers.

There is a potential for real ugliness in this matchup if those players win and win early. Any turnovers could prove to be backbreaking for the Mountaineers because if they want any chance in this game, they’re going to have to follow the formula Michigan did last season. That means controlling the game on the ground and limiting possessions for the Penn State offense. It helped that the Wolverines had two of the best backs in the country in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. The Mountaineers do not. And they’ll be taking on a Penn State defense that should be better against the run this season.

Barring a surprise, this is going to be a showcase game for Penn State’s defense to show how good it can be this season. If it feels like there hasn’t been as much discussion about Diaz’s unit, it’s probably because there aren’t many questions it has to answer heading into the year. I can’t imagine West Virginia posing anything new in that regard Saturday night.

Final predictions

Penn State 45, West Virginia 10: I have a hard time seeing the Mountaineers even keeping this one close. Penn State has advantages on both sides of the ball and if the Nittany Lions get an early lead, WVU is going to struggle to catch up. This one has opening week blowout written all over it.

MVP: Nick Singleton. I’m tempted to go with Allar, but this could be a breakout game for Singleton. Of course, he already broke out last year and people know who he is, but this is a chance for him to have an enormous week one and put himself at the forefront of the “best running back in the country” conversations. I’ll say he goes for over 150 yards on the ground and two touchdowns, including a big-time 50+ yard touchdown run.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on what he hopes to learn about Allar in Saturday’s game:

“You’re gonna learn a lot. He’s played so we kind of have an understanding of that. But there’s a difference being the starter and playing starter type reps. Obviously, at the end of the day I want him to continue to play like he did last year with poise and a really good understanding of how to manage the game. I also want him to let the plays come to him because with our running game and with the weapons that we have at tight end and at wide receiver, he doesn’t need to force anything. He doesn’t have to feel like he’s got too much on his shoulders. Between our defense, our special teams, our running game, I feel like we can go out there and just call the game the way we want to call it. But I want him to feel like, ‘Hey I’ve got enough weapons around me. I’ve just gotta manage the game and allow my experience and confidence to grow as the season goes on.’”