New budget projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will provide a point of reference for the debate over the next farm bill. If the debate follows the pattern of recent farm bills, budgetary concerns are likely to be front and center.

CBO’s outlook suggests current policies, some standard assumptions about economic growth and the aging of the U.S. population could lead to budget challenges in the years ahead. The budget deficit has declined sharply from the peak during the pandemic but is expected to widen again over the next decade as more Baby Boomers retire.

The projected annual budget deficit increases from $1.3 trillion this year to $2.3 trillion in 2033, as federal spending increases more rapidly than tax receipts. Social Security and Medicare account for more than half of the $3.7 trillion increase in annual federal spending over the next ten years.

Policymakers in both parties have said they do not want to cut funding for Social Security and Medicare, and a Republican House is unlikely to favor tax increases. That means some policymakers will be looking for other places to make spending cuts.

At the time the bill was passed, CBO estimated that the 2018 farm bill would have no net impact on the budget deficit, reflecting a decision made early in the debate There has not been a formal decision made about the budget for the next farm bill, but we now know what CBO says continuing current laws would imply.

The largest program covered in the farm bill is the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). In the fiscal year ending last September, federal spending on SNAP totaled $149 billion. That cost is expected to fall to $127 billion this year, largely because a temporary, pandemic-related increase in benefits for many program participants will expire in March.

Still, CBO projects that spending on SNAP will average about $120 billion per year over the next decade, far more than was estimated at the time the 2018 farm bill was debated. Higher levels of program participation, higher food prices, and an administrative decision that raised benefit levels all played a role in the increase.

Some Republicans have indicated they would like to see stricter work requirements or other program changes to reduce SNAP spending. In contrast, some Democrats have argued that current benefit levels are inadequate and need to be increased.

The basic commodity programs that have often been the center of farm bill debates are projected by CBO to cost about $6 billion per year over the next decade. Several farm groups have argued for increased support to offset the impacts of higher production expenses.

CBO projects crop insurance will cost taxpayers about $9 billion per year and that conservation program spending will average about $7 billion per year under current laws.

If the 2023 farm bill is expected either to reduce or to have no net impact on the federal budget deficit, any proposal to increase spending in one program will have to be offset by equal or larger reductions in other program spending. Identifying potential areas of budget cuts that a majority of the House, the Senate and the President can all agree upon will be a major challenge.

Pat Westhoff is director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri and a professor of agricultural and applied economics. The opinions expressed here are his own and do not reflect official positions or endorsements of the University of Missouri.

This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Westhoff: What the CBO budget outlook means for the farm bill debate