Westmoreland again expected to be major factor in 2024 presidential race

Apr. 30—Eyes could once again be on Westmoreland County as a key indicator ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

With President Joe Biden's announcement last week that he will seek a second term in office, political observers said the county is expected to play an outsized role in determining who wins Pennsylvania and, ultimately, the White House.

The county's political leaders said with the presidential election about 18 months away, preparations are underway to leverage Westmore­land's more than 243,000 registered voters' impact on the race.

"It's one of those key counties in Pennsylvania, and it had an enormous role in 2016 in Donald Trump's victory in Pennsylvania. It was the engine of his victory," said Muhlenburg College political science professor Chris Borick. "In 2020, the Trump campaign again had success beating Joe Biden, but Biden was able to do better than Hilary Clinton four years earlier."

Trump won Westmore­land County by a 31-point margin in 2016 en route to a slim statewide victory. Four years later, Trump again topped the race in Westmoreland, but by a slimmer 29-point margin despite a much larger pool of voters who cast ballots.

It's a model local Democrats said they want to repeat and say is necessary to keep Biden in the White House.

"Going into 2024, the vibes I'm getting are positive. President Biden's announcement was pitch perfect," said Westmoreland County Democratic Party Chairwoman Michelle McFall. "Westmoreland County voters narrowed the margin in the state last time, and we will help to deliver a statement to the nation next year."

Democrats, once the political power in Westmoreland County, have seen the party's influence decline steadily over the past two decades.

According to the latest voter registration statistics, the party has more than 92,000 members in Westmoreland, the 11th highest population of Democratic voters among Pennsylvania's 67 counties. Still, that total is about 30,000 fewer than the number of registered Republicans in Westmoreland County.

"We do have a staggering disadvantage, but we have to match or beat their turnout," McFall said. "We know what our job is: to close the margin. We're good at it, and we're getting better at it, so Westmoreland is very much in play."

------

Related

—Pittsburgh region could prove pivotal in Biden reelection chances

—2024 race won't be like 2020. That's good and bad for Biden

—Bill allowing counties to process mail ballots early clears 1st hurdle in Pa. House

------

Westmoreland was a key battleground in 2020. Trump made multiple campaign stops during the lead-up to the election, and Biden did a whistle-stop tour of the county.

Political leaders expect that to continue in 2024.

"I think Westmoreland County is pivotal again," said Paul Adams, an associate political science professor at the University of Pittsburgh at Greensburg. "Westmoreland County is a county where Biden did a bit better than Hillary Clinton had done, and that's meaningful. Those votes add up statewide. If Trump is going win, he has to win by a big margin in Westmoreland."

Borick agreed and said Westmoreland's position as one of one the larger Republican strongholds in the state means its success is essential to the GOP's hopes in 2024.

"Westmoreland is still a big county, and that's important because other counties that have become Republican have overwhelmingly lost population," Borick said.

And while Westmoreland has also lost population, it remains one the most populous in the state outside of Democratic strongholds counties like Philadelphia, its suburban neighbors and Allegheny County.

And Westmoreland Republicans continue to grow their ranks. With that growth that comes heightened importance on a statewide scale, according to local GOP head Bill Bretz.

"It's why in the last two cycles we've delivered some of the widest margins of victory in the commonwealth. We need to drive out the vote to increase that," Bretz said.

One way Republicans hope to bolster their advantage is to lean into mail-in voting and reverse what has been a substantial advantage for Democrats locally, across Pennsylvania and throughout the country.

That's a reversal of the efforts by Trump and national GOP leaders, who sought to discredit the system that allowed voters to cast ballots outside of traditional polling locations on Election Day.

"That's the biggest thing the GOP has been working on, is to engage our voters in using mail-in ballots to increase our turnout," Bretz said. "We need to get folks to participate in order to drive up the margins of the people we get out to vote."

Rich Cholodofsky is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Rich by email at rcholodofsky@triblive.com or via Twitter .