Our wet February iced Austin but has diminished Texas drought. Here's what we know
Not many people have anything good to say about the freezing rain earlier this month that, when it turned to ice, led to power outages across the Texas capital for a week. But the silver lining on that dark cloud is that we’re seeing drought in Texas receding again and cumulative rainfall totals in Austin trending higher than normal for an otherwise dry winter month.
Here's what we know about drought in Central Texas so far:
What is the drought status in Texas?
Drought data released Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor, a joint effort of the National Drought Mitigation Center, the U.S. Agriculture Department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, indicate that drought conditions across Texas have eased slightly, with about 78.4% of the state experiencing drought.
This week's percentage is lower than last week by 2 percentage points — the first decrease after rising for four consecutive weeks. It's a drop of nearly 11 percentage points from mid-November 2022 as rainfall became more frequent in that especially dry year.
Drought Monitor data also indicate that only about 7.1 million of the state's 29 million residents live in drought-stricken areas.
More:We could say adios to La Niña by spring. Here's what it means for a parched Texas.
Unfortunately, drought conditions continue to maintain a grip on parts of Central Texas:
About 19% of Hays County, along its western border, remained in exceptional drought, which is the worst level of drought and is typified by widespread crop loss and sensitivity to fire danger.
The southwest corner of Travis County, or about 12%, remained in extreme drought, the second-worst level, which includes cracked soil, decreased crop yields and the need for supplemental feed for livestock.
About 30% of Caldwell County, or most of its western half, remained in severe drought, which is typified by poor pasture conditions, hard soils and low crop yields.
About 63% of Williamson County remained in moderate drought, which often can mean stunted crops, early cattle sales and increasing frequency of wildfires
Most of Bastrop County, or about 81%, was considered abnormally dry, the lowest level of drought, with only its northern corner drought-free.
How much rain have we gotten in February?
Austin's pelting by freezing rain and normal rain this month has yielded about 1.68 inches at Camp Mabry, the site of the city's main weather station. At this point in February, Austin on average would have recorded only 0.78 inch of rainfall, according to National Weather Service data.
For the year to date, though, the city remains slightly below normal for cumulative rainfall. Since Jan. 1, gauges at Camp Mabry have measured about 2.94 inches of rainfall, which is about a half-inch short of normal for this time of year.
How are Austin-area water supplies holding up?
Readings from critical water sources, such as underground aquifers and the Highland Lakes west of Austin, continue to reflect a lack of replenishing moisture from regional watersheds.
Data from the Lower Colorado River Authority, which manages the Highland Lakes for hydroelectricity and flood control, show the volume of water stored in the reservoir lakes, Travis and Buchanan, would be full at about 2 million acre-feet. As of Sunday, that number was around 1.04 million acre-feet. An acre-foot is the amount of water it takes to cover an acre a foot deep.
Lake Travis, which doubles as a regional water source and aquatic playground, was considered to be at only 46% of capacity, LCRA data show. The water elevation at Mansfield Dam, which forms the lake, was about 639.7 feet above mean sea level, which is 28.9 feet below the historical average for February.
Readings from index wells in the Edwards Aquifer, an underground layer of porous, water-bearing rock sitting beneath Central Texas, show slight improvement. At the start of February, the aquifer level at the J-17 index well in Bexar County had a 10-day average reading of 637 feet, which is 31.5 feet lower than the historical February average, according to the National Weather Service. On Sunday, however, the J-17 well's 10-day average was 638.1 feet, with a daily reading of 638.6 feet, the Edwards Aquifer Authority reported.
What's the weather forecast this week?
This time of year, those of us in Central Texas live in a no man's land where otherwise predominant warm air from the Gulf of Mexico sometimes surrenders to powerful cold fronts sweeping in from the northwest. This week's extended forecast from the National Weather Service typifies this epic contest of natural forces and shifting winds.
Balmy southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph will return to the region Monday, introducing more clouds and pushing Austin temperatures to a daytime high of 69, forecasters said.
Rain will come back to Austin starting late Monday, with a 50% chance in the wee hours before dawn Tuesday. Overcast skies will help keep nighttime temperatures above 58 degrees amid gusty south-southeast winds of 15 mph.
By Tuesday afternoon, sunshine will take over again in Austin, this time with blustery west winds of 10 to 15 mph and a maximum temperature of 74 degrees. In the evening, more clouds and humid air will roll in from the south, which will keep overnight temperatures above 50.
Wednesday is expected to bring the highest temperatures of the month: a daytime high approaching 80 degrees, thanks in part to warm southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts as strong as 25 mph.
But then temperatures in Central Texas will take a chillier turn with the passage of a cold front before dawn on Thursday, when temperatures will stay below 57 degrees amid fierce north-northwest winds of around 20 mph.
"The best chances for any showers or storms will be early Thursday morning as the front passes, generally along the I-35 corridor and into the Coastal Plains," the weather service said in a bulletin Sunday. "Dry and breezy wind return behind this system with a significant temperature decrease seen Thursday compared to the previous day."
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Wet February iced Austin but has diminished Texas drought, data show
