Wet, hot Cape Cod summer? Weather experts weigh in

Eric Williams, Cape Cod Times
·4 min read
13

As the doldrums of late winter drone on, lovers of Cape Cod may find themselves daydreaming of summer. After all, we deserve it! While there are many sweet delights to the offseason, it is the summer that rises to an operatic crescendo of fun and watery adventure.

Bonfires burst onto beaches. Clam shacks sizzle to life. Sails are unfurled in the harbors. Tomatoes ripen on the vine. Suddenly, everything is groovy again.

But what is the key element to a great Cape Cod summer? Some might argue that good weather rules above all. We definitely want to avoid a repeat of 1816, known as ‘The Year Without a Summer,’ according to the New England Historical Society, when "temperatures dropped to as low as 40 degrees in July and August as far south as Connecticut."

The seasonal temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for June, July and August 2023 indicates that Cape Cod might see warmer weather than usual.
The seasonal temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for June, July and August 2023 indicates that Cape Cod might see warmer weather than usual.

Luckily, it appears we may avoid such a frosty fate. On Feb. 16, the Climate Prediction Center, a service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released its seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks for June, July and August 2023. Let's take a look!

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What do the Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks say about summer 2023 on Cape Cod?

According to the Climate Prediction Center, Cape Cod has a 60% to 70% percent probability of above-normal temperatures for the months of June, July and August 2023, a category called "likely above". Most of New England shares that probability with the exception of northern Maine, which has a slimmer chance of above-normal temperatures.

In the precipitation department, Cape Cod has a 40% to 50% probability of above normal precipitation for the months of June, July and August 2023, a category called "leaning above". A significant portion of New England shares that probability, although northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and much of Maine have an equal chance of more or less precipitation than usual.

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How accurate are the seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks?

Dan Collins, meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said the seasonal outlooks are "more often than not indicative" of what eventually occurs in the temperature and precipitation departments.

He added that the outlooks are not forecasts because they don't predict future individual weather events.

"At best, we can tell you what is probable over time," said Collins.

Significant staff hours and powerful computer models formulate the outlooks, he said. Collins said the outlooks are used by businesses, including the energy industry, for planning.

The seasonal precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for June, July and August 2023 indicates that Cape Cod might see more precipitation than usual.
The seasonal precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for June, July and August 2023 indicates that Cape Cod might see more precipitation than usual.

How accurate are shorter-term weather forecasts?

According to NOAA, "a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80% of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90% of the time. However, a 10-day — or longer — forecast is only right about half the time."

Here's why longer-term forecasts can be tricky, according to NOAA: "Meteorologists use computer programs called weather models to make forecasts. Since we can’t collect data from the future, models have to use estimates and assumptions to predict future weather. The atmosphere is changing all the time, so those estimates are less reliable the further you get into the future."

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What is typical Cape Cod summer weather?

Hayden Frank, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Boston office, said high temperatures on Cape Cod during the summer are reliably cooler than on the mainland. This is because of the cooling effect of the ocean. "You could have highs in the 70s on Cape Cod, when further inland it's up into the 80s," said Frank.

Typical summer precipitation on the Cape is trickier to quantify, said Frank. Early in the summer, thunderstorms moving in from the west sometimes dissipate or lessen as they travel across Cape Cod Bay, reducing the amount of rain that falls on the peninsula. But storms can also move along the coast, clipping Cape Cod with a dose of rain that doesn't make it to the mainland.

What does the Old Farmer's Almanac predict for summer 2023 weather on Cape Cod?

Sometimes, it's nice to turn to an old friend with these big weather questions. The Old Farmer's Almanac has been in the game since 1792, dishing out planting tips, recipes, moonrise times and yes, long-term weather forecasts. Here's what the almanac predicts for the Cape Cod region this summer:

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"Summer will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. The hottest periods will be in mid-July and early to mid-August. September and October will be cooler, on average, and drier than normal."

So it looks like NOAA and the Old Farmer's Almanac are in agreement about summer 2023 weather on the Cape. I guess we better stock up on air conditioners and umbrellas!

Contact Eric Williams at ewilliams@capecodonline.com. Follow him on Twitter: @capecast.

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This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Summer weather on Cape Cod may be wetter and hotter than usual