What to look for in the 2nd Republican presidential debate

Seven Republicans vying to challenge former President Trump for the party’s presidential nomination will line up for the GOP’s second debate Wednesday night at 9 p.m. ET at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, Calif.

All of them are trying to stand out in a news environment crowded with major news events: an impending government shutdown, an impeachment proceeding and an auto worker strike.

No one has yet emerged as a significant Republican alternative to Trump, who holds a commanding lead in the polls. In fact, the central question of the GOP race is whether Trump will even face a credible challenge at all.

Scott Reed, co-chair of a super-PAC backing former Vice President Mike Pence, told Yahoo News he still believes that the GOP field will consolidate and put someone forward to challenge Trump.

“Someone will emerge as the conservative alternative to Trump,” Reed said, adding that he thinks it will be Pence. “Some national polls may appear that Trump is waltzing, but time is not his friend.”

Pence is polling around 3% in FiveThirtyEight’s average, but Reed’s argument is that as voters focus more on the race and on the criminal charges Trump is facing, he will lose support.

Only seven Republicans will take part, after eight were in the first debate. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson did not make the cut.

A key divide among the candidates on stage Wednesday, in an event televised on Fox News, will be between those who are running to be Trump’s opponent, and those who are running with an eye to be his running mate.

Angling for the vice presidency

Only two Republicans among the top six non-Trump contenders have really left themselves a wide-open door to be picked as a running mate by the former president: Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

A third, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, might have played her cards carefully enough — as she often does — to leave the door cracked open.

The other three — Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — have all been openly critical of Trump in a way that probably would foreclose any reconciliation.

Read more on Yahoo News: Haley gets a bounce in New Hampshire — right into the veepstakes, from Politico

So these three have the least to lose when it comes to speaking their mind about Trump’s alleged crimes, the Republican Party’s huge number of lost elections with Trump as its standard-bearer, and the likely impact on the country of a potential second Trump term.

And if Scott wants to keep his options open, he’ll have another ho- hum debate like the first, where he doesn’t stand out all that much.

Read more on Yahoo News: Scott says he won’t need breakout moment in second GOP debate despite lagging poll numbers, from The Hill

Pence is now openly criticizing his former boss after beginning the year with a more cautious approach. It has yet to pay dividends in the polls, but expect Pence to be just as aggressive in this second debate as he was in the first.

Christie, too, will likely take some swings at Trump. Will DeSantis? He has lost more altitude than the Hindenburg while trying to be a Trump imitator and an opponent. Is there anything he can do to resurrect his candidacy?

The crucial early states

The national polls show Trump with a wide lead over the rest of the field. But in order for him to be the nominee, he’ll need the backing of a much more specific group of voters: just over a million Republican primary voters and caucus-goers in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and a few other early-voting states.

The same goes for those who would like to defeat Trump. Their message is aimed at a tiny minority of Americans who will decide next winter — in contests that most people don’t participate in — who the rest of us get to choose from in the fall election of 2024, more than a year from now.

In those early states, polls show Trump ahead by a lot as well, though his lead is slimmer in New Hampshire in particular. Compared to 57% support in national polls, Trump has 43% support in New Hampshire, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average.

Trump is at 49% in Iowa, and 47% in South Carolina.

Haley rising

It’s really when you look at the rest of the field that the state-based polling tells a story worth noticing: Haley is on the verge of breaking out as DeSantis’s replacement in second place.

In New Hampshire, Haley has rocketed past DeSantis. A month ago, Haley was at 4% in the Granite State, while DeSantis stood at 13%. Since then, Haley has surged to nearly 14% in the RCP average, while DeSantis has fallen to just under 10%.

In South Carolina, Haley has a natural advantage as the state’s former governor, and she is all alone in second place in the RCP average. And in Iowa, Haley is closing in on DeSantis as he loses support there as well.

Haley's strong first debate performance is widely viewed as the reason for her recent upswing, and she'll look to build on that.

A slightly smaller debate stage

There were eight Republicans on stage for the first debate; on Wednesday there will be seven. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is out because did not meet the elevated criteria for appearing in the second debate.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum narrowly qualified and is the seventh candidate on stage.

For the first debate, in August, candidates had to have received at least 1% in two national polls, or 1% in one national poll and two state-based polls. Candidates also had to show financial contributions of at least $1 from 40,000 different people, with 200 or more donations coming from at least 20 different states.

For the second debate, that polling criteria went up to 3% and covered opinion surveys conducted in September. And the donation requirement went up to 50,000.


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How to watch the next Republican presidential debate

Want to watch the next GOP debate for yourself? Here's everything you need to know.

What time is the next Republican presidential debate?

The second GOP presidential debate will be held on Wednesday, Sept. 27 at 9 p.m. ET.

What channel is the next Republican debate on?

The second GOP presidential primary debate will air on Fox News and Fox Business, with a Spanish-language feed airing on Univision.

As with the last Republican debate, Wednesday night’s event will also be livestreamed on Rumble. You can also watch the debate livestream on Foxnews.com when you login with your TV provider.

How to watch the Republican presidential debate without cable:

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