What's best strategy for undeclared anti-Trump voters in NH primary: Haley or Biden?

WINDHAM — When Chris Christie announced he was suspending his campaign for president last week, his supporters in the crowd were immediately confronted with the question: How do they stop Donald Trump now?

Christie’s supporters agreed with the message he led his campaign with: Trump is dangerous and must be stopped. But without Christie in the race, they'll need to find another way to prevent the former president from being nominated or winning the presidency.

“It just sucks,” said New Hampshire resident Jan Considine at the town hall. “(Christie) had actual plans and policies lined up. You don’t hear any of that from anybody else.” Now if they want to stop Trump, she said, “It’s going to have to be (Nikki) Haley in the primary.”

New Hampshire undeclared voters who don’t want to see Trump regain the presidency seem to be weighing two choices for the primary: vote for Haley or write in President Joe Biden. Registered Democrats and Republicans face more limited options as they can only vote in their party’s primary. But unaffiliated voters in New Hampshire, of which there are almost 400,000 (39.9 percent of the electorate), can choose to vote in either primary. So, what is the best way to defeat Trump?

How should undeclared voters cast their vote?

Nearly 4,000 New Hampshire Democrats changed their party affiliation to undeclared or Republican during the window from Sept. 14 to Oct. 7, indicating they may participate in the Republican primary.

Toni Pappas, a registered Republican who had planned to cast her vote for Christie in the primary, sees the need to attract these voters, and others, to make sure Trump doesn’t become the nominee.

“We need to attract independents, we need to attract Democrats, and moderate Republicans,” Pappas said. “I think Governor Christie was thinking about that. It was a very patriotic decision for him to make to save our country.”

Another Christie supporter, Tom Barton, believes undeclared voters will come to their aid. He said he knows many Democrats voting in the Republican primary.

Terie Norelli, a Democrat and former and New Hampshire House speaker from Portsmouth, has been working with the write-in Biden grassroots campaign.

“People who are certain they don’t want Donald Trump to be the next president and may be 150% planning to vote for President Biden in the general election, they may still be trying to hedge bets in the primary,” said Norelli. “But I believe that voting for President Biden is the best way to oppose Donald Trump. Obviously, Chris Christie backers may be wondering what to do now that he has stepped aside, and we, the write-in Joe Biden effort, certainly welcome anyone who truly wants to stand against Trump to join us in writing in Joe Biden, assuming they are unaffiliated.”

Biden wants Trump to be the nominee, NH expert says

Andy Smith, the director of the UNH Survey Center, thinks it doesn’t make sense for those who are registered undeclared but lean Democratic to vote in the Republican primary.

“That defeats the purpose of what the Biden campaign wants,” he said. “I know there have been efforts by some people to get people to do that, but it doesn’t makes sense to me that the place to beat Trump is in the Republican primary for Democrats because they want to see him on the ballot.”

He also believes the number of people who change their affiliation year to year is too small to make a difference, except in a super close race.

“We have to start with the premise that the Biden campaign wants to have Donald Trump as the Republican nominee,” said Smith. “They know how to beat Trump, they did it once before. They’ve already started their campaign against him this time around.”

Smith said the Biden campaign doesn’t want to see Haley win the nomination because she would be more difficult to beat. A Wall Street Journal poll conducted between Nov. 29 and Dec. 4 showed Haley beating Biden by 17 percentage points. The same poll saw Trump leading Biden by just 4 points.

So for Democrats and undeclared voters who lean Democratic, “the best thing for them to do is to let the Republicans fight it out,” said Smith, and then defeat Trump in November.

Democrats supporting Biden also think a strong showing in New Hampshire will bolster his chances against Trump.

“I think it’s important for President Biden to come out of New Hampshire with a win,” Norelli said. “I think this particular year, it’s way too critical for us to just sit on the sidelines.”

How should Republicans who don’t want Trump to be their nominee vote?

About 40-45 percent of the Republican electorate in New Hampshire are likely to vote for Trump, most polls are showing. The rest will have to coalesce around one candidate if they want to beat him. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second in Iowa, just ahead of Haley. But DeSantis hasn't invested as much time or enjoyed as much success in New Hampshire polls as Haley.

“I think New Hampshire needs to get out and vote for Nikki Haley at this point. She has the polls to stop Donald Trump,” said Joshua Ye, a college student and Massachusetts resident who came to see Chris Christie. “If New Hampshire goes for Haley, other states would probably do so as well.”

Former Airman Roy Williamson, 74, agrees: he thinks Haley can take the most delegates away from Trump and hopes she will win in New Hampshire.

Smith said it’s going to be important to see who drops out after Iowa.

“If just Haley is a viable candidate, she’s going to get most of the support from the non-Trumpers,” he said. “Not necessarily because they want Haley, but because they don’t want Trump and she’s the only alternative.”

Considine is one of those people: while she’s not happy about it, she’s likely going for Haley in the primary now that Christie is out. Polling indicates many Christie supporters will do the same.

However, Smith cautions against too much optimism for anti-Trump Haley backers. Unaffiliated voters, he said, are less likely to come out to vote.

“Haley support is really just coming from the undeclared,” he said. “Frankly, not really where you want to get your support from.”

This article originally appeared on Portsmouth Herald: Anti-Trump undeclared voters in NH primary consider Haley and Biden