What's the chance of a white Christmas in RI? Here's why it may be more likely in 2022

Frigid air will sweep into the United States next week, and it could come with a storm that gives Rhode Island the chance for a white Christmas.

"Very cold Arctic air masses will envelop much of the nation" between Dec. 22 and Dec. 28, "including the busy holiday travel season," NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says. "A potentially impactful winter storm may occur for parts of the eastern Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic and Northeast leading up to and including Christmas Eve."

The storm would likely hit between Dec. 22 and Christmas Eve, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Would the storm reach Southern New England and would it bring snow?

"There is a possibility of snow in Rhode Island toward Dec. 23," said Matthew Belk, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Norton, Massachusetts.

For this Christmas to meet the Weather Service's definition of a white Christmas, there would have to be at least an inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. Christmas morning, Belk said.

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"There's always the chance" of a white Christmas, said Tom Kines, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather. "There's going to be some really cold air dipping into the middle part of the country" then spreading east, he said. Such cold air masses "sometimes trigger" storms, but, he said, the storm track would play a big role in determining whether it would bring rain or snow to Southern New England.

Frigid air will make for a chilly Christmas, if not a white one

AccuWeather says the cold air will sweep in from Siberia and make this the coldest Christmas in years for much of the country. It could set low-temperature records in the middle of the country, according to Kines. The air might moderate by the time it gets to the East, but the Climate Prediction Center is nevertheless predicting temperatures dropping into the single digits and teens in the Northeast.

White Christmases are unusual in Southern New England and, with Christmas more than a week away, this year doesn't seem like a great candidate. Providence has gotten only 3.2 inches of snow so far this season. The average temperature in December has been slightly above normal, at 37.8 degrees.

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Generally speaking, chances for a white Christmas in Southern New England aren't good, Belk noted. The higher elevations of the Green Mountains and the White Mountains offer the best opportunity in New England to see snow at Christmas, he said.

Based on observations from 1991 to 2020, some parts of Rhode Island have a better historical chance than others, according to the Climate Prediction Center. For example, North Foster has a 43% chance and Woonsocket has a 36% chance, while Kingston has a 21% chance and Warwick at Rhode Island T.F. Green International Airport has just a 17% chance, according to an interactive map by the Climate Prediction Center.

"While the map shows the historical probability that at least 1 inch of snow will be observed on December 25, the actual conditions in any year may vary widely from these, because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas Day," the Climate Prediction Center noted.

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Last Christmas was white in Providence ... but not for long

The Providence area met the definition for a white Christmas last year, although the city may not have resembled the snowy scene from a Christmas card. After 2.2 inches of snow fell on Christmas Eve, the temperature warmed on Christmas Day, and the snow was washed out by freezing rain, rain, and drizzle. Still, 2 inches of snow was measured on the ground at 7 a.m. Christmas morning, according to National Weather Service records.

It was only the second white Christmas for Providence this century, and the first in 12 years. On Christmas Day 2009, Providence had 5 inches of snow on the ground, according to the National Weather Service. (The Providence area has gotten some light snowfall on Christmases this century, including 0.2 inches in 2017.)

White Christmases were a lot more common at the beginning of the previous century. The records show Providence had eight white Christmases between 1904 and 1912, with 16 inches in 1904 and 11 in 1907.

Will this Christmas look more like an early 20th-century Christmas?

"We're talking [10] days out," Kines said. "A lot can happen between now and then."

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Will there be a white Christmas in RI? Winter storm eyed for holidays