What's happening in the key midterm battleground states

This year's midterm elections have arrived, meaning pundits' predictions will finally be proven right or wrong. A close battle for the Senate has many eyes trained on the races that could secure control for either party, while controversy over election fraud has others watching the gubernatorial races since governors play an important role in overseeing elections. 

Here is the state of key battleground states ahead of the upcoming midterm elections:

The latest

Public polls are showing an interesting trend emerging in key battleground states. The New York Times reports that their latest polls "indicate a deeply volatile and unpredictable Senate contest." In the Times/Sienna polls for four critical Senate races, pollsters noticed an increase in people who said they wanted Republicans to gain control of the Senate but preferred the Democratic candidates in their states. This indicates that Republicans may struggle to overcome less favorable contenders in key battleground states on Nov. 8.

In an analysis of recent Senate poll trends, CNN senior political analyst Ronald Brownstein writes that the outcome of the elections might come down to whether or not voters "are moved more by these personal doubts about the GOP contenders or by their policy objections to Biden's performance." He posits that Democrats could benefit from "the large number of voters in those battleground states who view the Republican Senate candidates as extreme, unqualified, or both."

Arizona

Governor: Katie Hobbs (D) v Kari Lake (R)

The gap between the opponents for the race for Arizona governor has widened in recent weeks. Data from the latest Fox 10/InsiderAdvantage poll reveals that Republican candidate Kari Lake is now leading by about 3 points, with 51 percent to Hobbs' 48.  An earlier Fox10/InsiderAdvantage poll had shown Lake leading nearly 11 points, but Pollster Matt Towery now says that may have been an anomaly, per Fox. He previously suggested the gap may be the result of Hobb's reluctance to debate.

Hobbs currently serves as Arizona's secretary of state, where political sentiments have historically favored Republicans, per The Guardian. Her opponent is a former news anchor and a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump. Lake has repeated Trump's false claim that he won the state of Arizona during his bid for re-election in 2020. On Sunday, Lake refused to commit to accepting the election results if she were to lose. In an interview for CNN's State of the Union, Lake stated, "I'm going to win the election, and I will accept that result." Additionally, she said, "The people of Arizona will never support and vote for a coward like Katie Hobbs."

Hobbs' campaign office was recently burglarized, and her team indicated that the aggressive campaign tactics of her opponent were at least partly to blame. In response to the allegations, Lake said she was "saddened that Hobbs and her camp would try to pin this on us" while calling the legitimacy of the complaint into question.

Senate: Mark Kelly (D) v Blake Masters (R)

The Fox10/InsiderAdvantage poll results also show that Democratic candidate Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters are tied in the state's Senate race, with both polling at 48 percent.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D) has outpaced his opponent in raising election funds in the third quarter, according to Federal Election Commission Records, per CNBC. Earlier, a surprising jump in support for Libertarian candidate Marc Victor hinted at further trouble for Masters. At the time, results of Arizona-based pollster OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) and the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) predicted Victor could have earned close to 15 percent of the vote — a 9-point increase from their survey in September. Victor has since dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.

The Fox10/InsiderAdvantage poll included responses from 550 registered voters in Arizona with a margin of error is +/- 4.2 percent, and was conducted on  Nov. 2. OHPI's AZPOP surveyed 674 Arizona likely voters between conducted Oct. 4-6 with a margin of error of +/- 3.77 percent.

Pennsylvania

Governor: Doug Mastriano (R) v Josh Shapiro (D)

Non-partisan poll aggregator RealClearPolitics' average shows Pennsylvania attorney general Josh Shapiro (D) with a 10.7-point lead over his opponent Doug Mastriano (R). The RCP poll average includes the latest InsiderAdvantage/Fox 29 poll, where Shapiro is ahead by 8-points with 51 percent compared to Mastriano's 43 percent.

Mastriano, a far-right senator, has been the center of many controversies since he falsely claimed that Trump had won his state during the 2020 presidential election and was subpoenaed by the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 capitol attack. Mastriano was photographed outside of the U.S Capitol on Jan. 6, per The Associated Press.

Senate: John Fetterman (D) v Mehmet Oz (R)

The battle for the Pennsylvania Senate seat has been one of the most closely followed this midterm season: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) is up against Trump-endorsed former TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz. The InsiderAdvantage/Fox 29 poll shows Oz gaining a slight his lead ahead of Fetterman, 48 percent to 46 percent.

Fetterman is recovering from a stroke he suffered in May, and he recently addressed the debate over the state of his health. In early October, he told a crowd at a rally that he has "auditory processing" issues and sometimes stumbles over his words, The Washington Post reports. His opponent has made his recovery a focus of his aggressive ad campaigns against Fetterman. Oz has also called Fetterman soft on crime due to Fetterman's celebratory response to Biden's recent pardon of those with simple marijuana possession charges.

Fetterman's unsteady performance at the sole televised debate against Oz has reignited worries that his health concerns could affect how voters perceive him. Democratic leaders still seem to remain hopeful, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer overheard telling Biden, "It looks like the debate didn't hurt us too much in Pennsylvania as of today." Independent candidate Everett Stern recently dropped out of the race and endorsed Fetterman.

The InsiderAdvantage/Fox 29 poll surveyed 450 likely voters on Nov. 3. The margin of error was +/- 3.58 percent.

Georgia

Governor: Stacey Abrams (D) v Brian Kemp (R)

Voting rights activist Stacey Abrams (D) is facing Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in a rematch after she lost to him in 2018. The RCP average has Kemp with an 8-point lead, an increase from the previously reported average. The final Insider Advantage/Fox 5 poll shows 50 percent of likely voters supporting incumbent Kemp, while 45 percent support Abrams.

Abrams has been admonishing Kemp for his pro-abortion stance, while Kemp has largely avoided the issue to focus on inflation, The New York Times reports. The two candidates faced each other in their first debate since 2018 on the evening of Oct. 17. During their second, and final, debate, the two rivals focused heavily on crime rates, gun rights, and public safety concerns. Abrams urged voters to look at Kemp's track record while in office, while Kemp indicated that she was deflecting from her own political past.

Senate: Herschel Walker (R) v Raphael Warnock (D)

Another highly anticipated Senate faceoff pits Republican Herschel Walker against Democrat Raphael Warnock. This race is being closely watched, as it has the potential to determine which party ends up with control of the Senate. Walker maintained the slight lead he gained in the previous poll. The latest Insider Advantage/Fox 5 poll shows him polling at 49 percent to his rival's 47 percent.

Walker, who supports strict abortion bans, recently came under fire when a woman claimed he paid for her to get an abortion in 2009; Republicans and Trump have rallied behind him after he deemed the story an outright lie. In a recent debate, Warnock called Walker out for previous false claims he made about being a police officer, despite never having a job in law enforcement, CNN reports. Walker responded by displaying a badge, which he later admitted was an honorary badge, per CNN.

Another woman has since surfaced with allegations that Walker pressured her to get an abortion. Walker continues to vehemently deny both women's claims, rejecting them as outright lies.

Insider Advantage/Fox 5 surveyed 550 likely voters throughout Georgia on Nov. 6. The margin of error was +/- 4.2 percent.

Nevada

Governor: Joe Lombardo (R) v Steve Sisolak (D)

The contest for Nevada governor is another competitive race that could have long-term effects on the state legislature's political leanings. Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) is facing off against Sherrif Joe Lombardo (R), and the latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll has them locked in a tie, with 43 percent each. Lombardo is another Trump-backed candidate who is seeking to keep Sisolak from securing a second term. This poll is included in the latest RCP average, which has Lombardo with a 2.3-point lead.

The USA Today/Suffolk University poll surveyed 500 likely Nevada voters from Oct. 24 to Oct. 28. The margin of error was +/- 4.4 percent.

Senate: Adam Laxalt (R) v Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

The Silver State's Senate race will likely be among the crop of elections that could help determine if Republicans can secure a congressional majority this year. The latest The Hill/Emerson College poll found Republican Adam Laxalt leading with 50 percent support among very likely voters, compared to 45 percent for Democrat incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, and 3 percent said they were undecided.

Former state attorney general Cortez Masto had a historic victory in 2016 when she became the first Latina elected to the Senate. Laxalt is an Iraq War veteran and was endorsed by both Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

The Hill/Emerson College poll surveyed 2,000 likely voters from Oct. 26  to Oct. 29. The margin of error was +/- 2.1 percent.

Update Nov. 7: This article has been updated throughout to reflect the latest polls out of the battleground states.

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