What's happening on US-Mexico border? Three takeaways as Title 42 migrant policy ends

WASHINGTON – Pandemic-era immigration restrictions are finally gone, but what that means for the U.S.-Mexico border is unclear.

The Biden administration said Monday that it was still assessing the impact of the end of controversial immigration rules known as Title 42, which made it easier to expel migrants at the southern border. The rules, which ended Thursday, had been in place for three years as part of the federal public health emergency for COVID-19.

Thousands of migrants have been waiting in Mexico for the restrictions to end, and analysts predicted chaos and a surge of migrants looking to cross the border once the policy was lifted. So far, that hasn't happened.

"The situation on the border is very fluid," said Blas Nuñez-Neto, assistant secretary for border and immigration policy. "This is a continuously evolving situation that we are monitoring in real time."

Here are three takeaways from administration’s termination of the policy.

Dire prediction: Biden says border will be `chaotic for a while' when Title 42 ends

No migrant surge after Title 42. But could it still happen?

In the days leading up to the end of Title 42, the U.S. averaged roughly 10,000 migrant encounters a day along the U.S.-Mexico border as immigrants sought to enter the U.S. before the policy was terminated. Those numbers were expected to surge after the termination of Title 42.

It's early, but administration officials said they haven’t seen any signs of a surge. In fact, the opposite has occurred.

The border has remained relatively calm in the four days since Title 42 ended, and the number of migrants crossing illegally has dropped by 50%, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

The U.S. has averaged fewer than 5,000 migrant encounters a day since Title 42 was terminated, Nuñez-Neto said.

It’s too soon to draw any conclusions about why the numbers are down, Nuñez-Neto said.

But several factors could be playing a role.

For one, the administration has revamped the system to crack down on illegal crossings and to offer a new legal pathway for migrants who often pay thousands of dollars to smugglers to get them across the border.

Although Border Patrol agents can no longer expel migrants for public health reasons, the administration has a new rule that migrants seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border will be turned away unless they’ve first applied online or sought protection in a country they’ve passed through.

Migrants caught crossing illegally won’t be allowed to return for five years. They can be criminally prosecuted if they attempt to cross again. Families allowed in as their immigration cases progress will face curfews and GPS monitoring.

Another factor that might be deterring migrants from crossing the border is that Mexico has deployed large numbers of law enforcement and military troops along its border in recent days in anticipation of the expiration of Title 42.

For subscribers: 'Psychological torture': These Venezuelan migrants were among final expulsions under Title 42

Panama and Colombia also have undertaken a joint effort to crack down on networks that smuggle migrants across the border.

Even so, “we are mindful that smugglers will continue to look for ways to take advantage of the change in border policies,” Nuñez-Neto said.

It’s also important to note, Nuñez-Neto said, that the conditions that are causing migrants to flee their homes and cross illegally into the U.S. haven’t changed. Those conditions include extreme poverty, violence and war.

“We continue to see more displaced people in the hemisphere than we have in decades,” he said.

What's next? When Title 42 expires, will migrants be prosecuted for crossing border illegally?

What happens to migrants seeking asylum?

The Biden administration has expelled thousands of migrants who crossed into the U.S. illegally since the end of Title 42.

U.S. authorities have returned to enforcing the nation's immigration laws under Title 8, a section of the U.S. code that spells out who is admissible to the country, criminal penalties for crossing the border illegally and the expedited removal of migrants who are deemed inadmissible.

Since Friday, hundreds of migrants, including Venezuelans, Cubans and Nicaraguans, have been returned to Mexico. Thousands, including single adults and families, have been sent home to more than 10 countries, including Colombia, Honduras and Peru, Nuñez-Neto said.

Thousands more were being held in facilities run by Customs and Border Protection or Immigrations and Customs Enforcement and were moving through the expedited removal process in a streamlined manner, he said.

The U.S. response to the end of Title 42 relies heavily on the cooperation of other countries. But some details still need to be worked out.

The Department of Homeland Security announced on April 27 that it would open regional processing centers in Guatemala and Colombia to “reduce irregular migration and facilitate safe, orderly, humane and lawful pathways from the Americas” to countries such as the United States, Canada and Spain.

But Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei has complained about a lack of communication between the two governments and has even been calling Republican lawmakers in Congress for their help.

U.S. officials deny any discord with Guatemala over the processing centers and insist that Guatemala has agreed "in principle" to help with the processing centers but that questions about implementation need to be resolved.

Congress acts: House passes GOP border security bill as Title 42 expiration looms: What to know

Florida ruling injects uncertainty on migrant policy

U.S. officials remain concerned about the impact a Florida judge’s ruling last Thursday could have on U.S. immigration policy after Title 42.

U.S. District Judge T. Kent Wetherell in the Northern District of Florida temporarily blocked the Customs and Border Protection from going ahead with a plan to release, or “parole,” some migrants to alleviate overcrowding at immigration holding facilities.

Fearing a surge in migrants once Title 42 lifted, Customs and Border Protection said it would parole certain migrants without what's known as a notice to appear, essentially a charging document because those documents take additional time to prepare.

Wetherell said a Biden administration memorandum outlining the parole policy appeared to conflict with a decision from the court in a separate case earlier this year.

Nuñez-Neto said the administration is concerned about the effect the Florida ruling could have on the time it takes to process migrants.

“Every individual we encounter is thoroughly vetted against our national security and public safety systems,” he said, adding that people are detained if they have outstanding warrants or have any affiliation with terrorism.

The Biden administration is expected to appeal the ruling. Another hearing in the case is set for Friday.

Michael Collins covers the White House. Follow him on Twitter @mcollinsNEWS.

Contributing: John Fritze, Maureen Groppe, Lauren Villagran, Erin Mansfield, David Jackson and The Associated Press

Fact check: As Title 42 ends, post falsely claims Biden has no plan for migrants at US-Mexico border

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Title 42: Three takeaways on end of controversial migrant policy