What's in store for Manatee County's economy?

Laura Finaldi, Sarasota Herald-Tribune
·3 min read

Since the fall of 2020, Manatee County's roadways have been packed with a steady influx of new locals.

But huge gains in residents hailing from other parts of the U.S. have been offset by COVID-19 deaths and a sizable drop in international migration, according to a presentation from a Florida economist.

This assessment of Manatee County's population, and its potential growth opportunities, was delivered by Orlando-based economist Hank Fishkind, the keynote speaker at the Bradenton Area Economic Development Corp.'s annual economic forecast breakfast Wednesday in Palmetto.

By the way: Sarasota-Manatee labor force grew by 8% as unemployment remains flat

Record median home prices shattered in Sarasota, Manatee counties as trend continues

And: Amid rising cost of living, Sarasota hospitality employers struggle to hire

Economist Dr. Hank Fishkind delivers his annual economic forecast virtually at the Bradenton Area Economic Development Corporation's annual breakfast.
Economist Dr. Hank Fishkind delivers his annual economic forecast virtually at the Bradenton Area Economic Development Corporation's annual breakfast.

Florida's population grew by more than 200,000 people between April 2020 and July, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Last year was the highest level of domestic migration that we’ve ever seen,” Fishkind said. “Many people decided to retire or retire early, and labor force-age people came into Manatee County because of its over-performance in job growth but also because it’s a very attractive area.”

Real estate prices, which have been escalating at unprecedented levels over the last year, could cool off a bit because of dwindling inventory and plans from the Federal Reserve System to raise interest rates.

Unemployment also is low – Florida has gained back more than 90% of the jobs it lost since before the pandemic. That doesn't make up for the usual annual job gains that were absent because of COVID, Fishkind said, but it at least points towards a strong recovery.

At the same time, plenty of economic challenges remain, Fishkind said. The recovery from COVID-19 has been “K-shaped,” meaning it's unequal and benefits the nation's top earners while those who earn lower incomes are having a hard time. Those in the working class have had to weigh the benefits of going back to work versus caring for a sick loved one or staying home with children who are learning online.

While most industries have gained back the jobs they've lost since before the pandemic, the leisure and hospitality industry and the government sector are still down in terms of employment in Manatee County, Fishkind said.

Part of that is because the area has such a high concentration of jobs in that sector, he said, but it's also because the hospitality industry has been slow to recover in general. Fishkind expects things to change, assuming the worst of the omicron variant is over, and he doesn't expect any significant stimulus from the federal government.

The labor market should be more stable by the end of 2022, he said, and global supply chain issues should mostly resolve by then as well.

In many ways, Fishkind said, the pandemic accelerated economic changes that were already in place – especially the shift towards e-commerce and remote work.

The prevalence of e-commerce during COVID has led to slowdowns in non-residential construction, Fishkind said. Many of the new commercial centers being built are near communities where there's been a lot of residential growth, he said.

Remote work is partially responsible for the housing market boom and a national slowdown in demand for office real estate, although demand for professional workspace remains high in the Sarasota-Manatee area.

By the way: How has COVID-19 changed the workplace in Sarasota?

The hybrid office model has also been proven to be productive and favored by employers – Fishkind cited a survey from PricewaterhouseCoopers that said more than 80% of firms plan to continue with it.

Eventually, the definition of an area's “employment” will have to evolve to include people who work remotely from their homes for companies based in other areas, Fishkind said.

“It's important that we recognize the significant structural changes and opportunities that provides for places like Manatee County that are so attractive,” he said.

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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Orlando-based economist: Manatee poised for growth