Where are the best chances for a white Christmas in Arizona this year?

Hallmark sometimes seems to have ownership of Christmas time, sharing movies of family, snow and holiday miracles. To many people in Phoenix, the real holiday miracle would be a white Christmas, but it is far more likely in other parts of Arizona.

According to the National Weather Service, some of the places with good chances of snow on the ground Monday are Flagstaff, Grand Canyon Village and Williams. With storms moving into the state this week, rain is anticipated to spread across metro Phoenix, with snow in the higher country as Christmas nears.

For the record, measurable snow has never fallen in Phoenix on Christmas Day, dating back to at least the turn of the last century. According to the weather service, there have been only seven instances of measurable snowfall in Phoenix, and only two occurred in December.

The most snow ever recorded in Phoenix was 1 inch, at the federal building at Central and Fillmore, once in January 1933 and again in January 1937. Other parts of what is now known as the metro area have recorded up to 4 inches. In February 1939, half an inch of soft powder quieted the Valley, making the 1930s a memorable decade.

It does snow in Arizona — and it's not uncommon

Although Phoenix has not seen snow during the holidays, higher elevations across the state have. In February 2019, north Scottsdale and Cave Creek residents came outside to enjoy the flakes that covered the ground until rain melted it away.

Further afield, about 40 miles northeast of Phoenix, sit the Four Peaks, part of the Mazatzal Mountain range. The highest point reaches 7,903 feet in elevation.

At that elevation, seeing snow on these points during this time of year is not at all uncommon, said Mark O’Malley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Phoenix.

“That’s common,” O’Malley said. “That happens maybe a couple of times every winter where you’ll get snow on Four Peaks. It’s only during the really dry winters you won’t (get any snow) because of a lack of storms. But at that elevation, it’s not uncommon to see it."

Perhaps less surprising is the amount of snow Flagstaff receives during winter. In 14 of the past 20 years, residents have seen snow on Christmas Day, according to the weather service, and in over half of those years, more 3 inches covered the ground.

Schools and roads were closed in Flagstaff last winter due to a winter storm that brought up to 8 inches of snow, icy roads and high winds. Crews used 17 graders, 12 snowplow trucks, a salt truck and two loaders were used to remove up to a foot of snow across Coconino County.

Phoenix residents have grown accustomed to warm, sunny winters, and this Christmas is not anticipated to be any different, with the forecast showing mostly sunny with a high near 63 degrees.

It should come as no surprise that there have been several unusually warm Christmas Days across the state, even without breaking heat temperature records like this year. The warmest Christmas Day on record in Phoenix was 1980, with a high of 78 degrees. The next warmest was a high of 76 degrees, in eight different years.

Who can expect a white Christmas?

Arizona's higher elevations will be most likely to have snow on Christmas this year, places like Flagstaff, Williams, Grand Canyon Village, Payson and Prescott.

“Many areas have seen snowfall already this month with a chance for some high elevation snow around the middle of next week,” said Valerie Meola, lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service.

For those hoping to go skiing in Flagstaff this winter, whether it snows won't matter. Snowbowl, the ski resort in Flagstaff, makes use of artificial snow so everyone can enjoy the slopes. The resort has 13 trails open from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., weather permitting, and six of their lifts open.

Arizona's other ski resort in Greer is open daily from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Sunrise Park Resort offers night skiing from Dec. 26-31, from 4:30 p.m. to 8 p.m.

While Arizona may not see a ton of Christmas snow, other parts of the West are likely to have snow on the ground for Christmas, according to forecasts released this week. Chances are also good near the Canadian border from North Dakota to Maine, as well as in the mountains of West Virginia.

Caralin Nunes writes about weather and related topics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral. Email her with story tips at caralin.nunes@arizonarepublic.com

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: A white Christmas in Phoenix is unlikely, but not impossible