Where Heat’s rotation players should have gone in a redraft: Perspective as draft looms

The question has been repeated throughout the Heat’s playoff run, in television studios and press conferences and living rooms across America:

How could the Heat have made the NBA Finals with so many undrafted players (seven overall and now five rotation members)?

The inference is that these players weren’t good enough to be drafted.

In truth, they’ve proven to be plenty good enough.

More reflective of the Heat’s talent is where these players would be selected if there were a re-draft of their draft classes.

With Thursday’s NBA Draft on tap, we looked back at the year where all Heat players were draft eligible to determine where they should have been drafted, with the benefit of hindsight.

An analysis of the 2018 NBA Draft class and the undrafted players from that group strongly suggests that Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent would each be selected between 15 and the mid-20s if all of the players from that year were re-drafted today.

An analysis of the 2019 NBA Draft class and the undrafted players from that group indicates that Caleb Martin and Max Strus would be chosen between 17 and 25.

So was the Heat’s talent underestimated?

“When we say the other teams still playing, the teams they’re going against, have more talent, is that the truth?” ESPN’s Kendrick Perkins asked on “NBA Today” during the conference finals.

When colleague Richard Jefferson quickly said, “yes,” Perkins was having none of that.

“Why? Is that the truth because where guys were drafted?” Perkins said. “Because what I’m looking at is Caleb Martin is a hooper. I’m looking at him and Derrick White and thinking they bring the same thing to the table. These guys are finally getting their chance.”

White was selected 29th overall by the Spurs in 2017. Martin, in a re-draft, likely would go ahead of 8 to 10 players selected in the first round of the 2019 draft.

Of the eight best undrafted NBA players from those 2018 and 2019 drafts, four play for the Heat: Vincent, Robinson, Martin and Strus. Only OKC’s Lugentz Dort - signed by the Thunder after going undrafted out Arizona State in 2019 - would be considered a better undrafted find from those two drafts than some of those four Heat players.

Minnesota’s Naz Reid, Sacramento’s Terence Davis and Portland’s Drew Eubanks also would be in the discussion of the best handful of undrafted players from those 2018 and ‘19 drafts.

That’s why one scout recently wondered whether Robinson, Vincent, Martin and Strus would be as good with another team, or whether the Heat’s development system helped make them what they are. (Either way, the players deserve enormous credit for maximizing their skills.)

“I think anybody denigrating the talents of the Heat players is making a mistake,” ABC’s Jeff Van Gundy said. “You don’t get to where they’ve gotten to, earned the minutes that they’ve earned, performed the way they’ve performed and not have tremendous talent.”

Here’s a look at where Vincent, Robinson, Strus and Martin should have gone, if there were a redraft, without regard to players’ current salaries:

2018 DRAFT

▪ Still ahead of Vincent and Robinson (14): DeAndre Ayton (selected first that draft), Luka Doncic (3), Jaren Jackson Jr. (4), Trae Young (5), Wendell Carter Jr. (7), Collin Sexton (8), Mikal Bridges (10), Shai Gilgeous Alexander (11), Michael Porter Jr. (14), Kevin Huerter (19), Anfernee Simons (24), Robert Williams (27), Jalen Brunson (33), Gary Trent Jr. (37).

▪ Debatable about where they should be selected compared with Vincent and Robinson (some more than others): Marvin Bagley Jr. (2), Mo Bamba (6), Donte DiVincenzo (17), Lonnie Walker (18), Grayson Allen (21), Mo Wagner (25), Devonte Graham (34), Mitchell Robinson (36), Jarred Vanderbilt (41), Bruce Brown (42), Shake Milton (54), Miles Bridges (12; suspended 30 games for domestic violence charge), Portland’s Drew Eubanks (undrafted).

▪ First round picks that Vincent and Robinson should be drafted ahead of (11): Kevin Knox (9), Jerome Robinson (13), Troy Brown (15), Zhaire Smith (16), Josh Okogie (20), Chandler Hutchinson (22), Aaron Holiday (23), Landry Shamat (26), Jacob Evans (28), Dzanan Musa (29), Omari Spellman (30).

▪ Comment: Factoring in all drafted and undrafted players from that 2018 class, a case could be made to pick Vincent and Robinson in the late teens - and no later than the early to mid 20s if a team prefers the size of a Mitchell Robinson, Bagley, Wagner and Bamba.

▪ FYI: Vincent, who went undrafted out of Cal-State Santa Barbara, signed an Exhibit 10 deal with the Kings in October 2018 but was waived a few days later, developed his game in the G-League and signed a two-way contract with the Heat in January 2020… Robinson signed a two-way contract with the Heat two weeks after going undrafted out of Michigan.

2019 DRAFT

▪ Still ahead of Strus and Martin (16): Zion Williamson (drafted first overall), Ja Morant (2), RJ Barrett (3), De’Andre Hunter (4), Darius Garland (5), Coby White (7), Rui Hachimura (9), Cam Johnson (11), PJ Washington (12), Tyler Herro (13), Brandon Clark (21), Grant Williams (22), Jordan Poole (28), Keldon Johnson (29), Kevin Porter Jr. (30) and Luguentz Dort (undrafted).

▪ Debatable about where they should be drafted compared with Strus and Martin: Darius Bazley (23), Nic Claxton (31), Talen Horton-Tucker (46), Terance Mann (48), Jalen McDaniels (52), Naz Reid (undrafted), Terence Davis (undrafted).

▪ First-round picks that Strus and Martin should be drafted ahead of (14): Jarrett Culver (6), Jaxson Hayes (8), Cam Reddish (10), Romeo Langford (14), Sekou Doumbouya (15), Chuma Okeke (16), Nikiel Alexander Walker (17), Goga Bitadze (18), Luka Samanic (19), Matisse Thybulle (20), Ty Jerome (24), Nassir Little (25), Dylan Windler (20), Mfiondu Kabengele (27).

▪ Comment: Mid to late teens - and at worst, early 20s - would seem the sweet spot for Strus and Martin in a re-draft. And if the Eastern Conference finals version of Martin becomes who he is next season, then Martin could jump Kevin Porter Jr. (who put up big numbers for a bad Houston team) and possibly some or all among Clark, Dort, Washington, Hachimura and Grant Williams.

▪ FYI: Martin signed with Charlotte (which had drafted his twin brother Cody in the second round that year) in the summer of 2019 after going undrafted, had his Hornets deal converted to a two-way that October and was waived Aug. 7, 2021. He then was scooped up by the Heat in a two-way deal that was eventually converted to a standard contract in the 2021-22 season…

Strus, after going undrafted out of DePaul in 2019, signed a two-way deal with Boston a month later, then was converted to a standard deal in training camp but was cut, then signed a Bulls two-way deal in October 2019.

He signed with the Heat before the 2020 season (which didn’t start until December because of COVID-19) and was converted to a two-way deal in training camp, eventually signing a standard deal with Miami the following offseason.

WHAT ABOUT FOUR OTHERS?

In a re-draft, Jimmy Butler would go far higher than 30th overall in 2011, Kyle Lowry far higher than 24th in 2006, and Bam Adebayo and Herro higher than 13th and 14 in their respective drafts.

Butler has had a better career than everyone picked ahead of him except Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson and arguably, Kyrie Irving.

Lowry was arguably better than 23 players selected before him; only he and Rudy Gay remain active from that draft.

Adebayo likely would be a top five pick in a 2017 re-draft, Herro a top eight pick in a 2019 re-draft.

So if the Heat’s top eight players were drafted those years in a manner commensurate with what they became, this likely would be a roster with four top-10 picks and four others picked from the mid teens to mid 20s.