Where LSU basketball stands heading into its SEC opener vs. Arkansas

BATON ROUGE — LSU basketball will face its first big test of the Matt McMahon era when No. 10 Arkansas travels to Baton Rouge on Wednesday (8 p.m., ESPN2).

LSU (11-1) hasn't been challenged much this season, having only faced two Power 5 opponents and holding one of the 20 weakest strengths of schedule in all of Division I, according to KenPom.com.

But even with a light non-conference slate, LSU has been far from dominant. The Tigers have only won one game by more than 16 points. They also had to claw out single-digit wins over East Tennessee State, Wofford, UT Arlington, Winthrop and Arkansas State. All but one of those teams (Wofford) are outside KenPom's top 250 national rankings.

That will change starting Wednesday. After the Tigers face off against Arkansas (11-1), they'll play No. 19 Kentucky, No. 9 Alabama, No. 24 Auburn, No. 8 Tennessee and the Razorbacks again over their next eight games.

The schedule lightens up again after that stretch, but this string of games will likely determine LSU's fate this season.

If the Tigers can go 4-4 or better, it has a good shot of making the NCAA Tournament. If not, LSU's first season under McMahon may only reach the NIT.

Here's a preview of LSU's first matchup against a ranked opponent this season.

Arkansas will be without its star guard

Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas' star guard and the No. 1 player in the nation from the 2022 class, according to the 247Sports Composite, is expected to be sidelined with a nagging knee injury that forced him to sit out the first six games of the season.

When Smith has played this season, he's lived up to his billing. He has averaged 12.8 points per game and scored 22 points against UNC Greensboro earlier this month.

Arkansas has the depth to replace Smith's production and has shown that it can win games without him. But his presence would help an offense that is outside the top 30 in KenPom's rankings.

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KJ Williams and Adam Miller will have to step up

Murray State transfer KJ Williams and Adam Miller have undeniably been LSU's two best players on offense this season. Both are averaging better than 13 points per game and hitting over 50% of their shot attempts from two-point range.

Williams has been on fire from 3-point land, connecting on 50% of his 46 attempts. Miller hasn't been as efficient but has looked explosive after missing last season with a torn ACL.

Both scorers will have to be on their A-game on Wednesday. The Tigers have received little production from their other potential scorers, plus Arkansas has the 11th-best defensive rating in Division I and holds the No. 9 defense in KenPom's rankings.

LSU may need to shake up its starting lineup again

Arkansas will come into the Pete Maravich Assembly Center on Wednesday with a pretty big team.

The Razorback's top six scorers are at least 6-foot-6, and their length has been the driving force behind their success on defense.

LSU has the size to counter, if it decides to. But recently the Tigers have rolled out their starting lineup around Williams as an undersized center and three guards: Miller, Cam Hayes and Justice Hill. At 6-foot-10, Mississippi State transfer Derek Fountain starts but he's the only player big for his position in the starting lineup.

Replacing one of the guards – perhaps Cam Hayes – with a forward like Mwani Wilkinson, Jalen Reed or Tyrell Ward could help the Tigers, especially on defense.

Score prediction: Arkansas 77, LSU 60

Arkansas's defense shuts down an LSU attack that's too reliant on Miller and Williams. With such an easy nonconference slate, this game will be a wake-up call for the Tigers. How they react from there will be telling for this team.

Koki Riley covers LSU sports for The Daily Advertiser and the USA TODAY Sports South Region. Email him at kriley@theadvertiser.com and follow him on Twitter at @KokiRiley.

This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: LSU basketball vs. Arkansas score prediction and scouting report