When and where the snow may fall near St. Louis
Key points:
Near-record warmth today, with highs near or just above 70.
Scattered showers and a few storms are possible after sunset; strong storms are possible far south
Cooler weather for the weekend, but not cold
A southern storm is expected to bring cold rain and some wet snow late Sunday night and Monday morning
ST. LOUIS — The good news is today will be amazing and less windy than Thursday. The record high for today is 75 and I think we will approach it, but come up a little short. I doubt anyone complains about a high near 70.
Stormy weather
As the cold front arrives tonight, scattered showers will start to bubble up over central Missouri between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. Those showers may include a few thunderstorms by the time they reach the Mississippi River between 10 p.m. and midnight. One or two of those storms may produce some hail. I cannot rule out a strong storm or two over our far-southeastern Missouri counties, where a Level 1 (out of 5) risk for severe weather exists for late this evening.
There is even some evidence that a very low-end tornado risk may develop way south, near and south of a line from Lesterville, Missouri, up to around Chester, Illinois. So, folks in southern St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, Perry, Madison, Iron and Reynolds counties in Missouri, plus Perry and Randolph counties in Illinois, should check back later in the day and this evening to see how this comes together.
Cooler weather
After the storms this evening, cooler weather takes over for the weekend. This is simply “normal cool” as opposed to the record warmth we have experienced these first eight days of February. Speaking of which, the first eight days of February rank as the warmest in the 149 years of records in St. Louis. The same is true of many of the reporting stations from Missouri into the Great Lakes. This weekend will see dry weather with temperatures in the 40s to near 50. So definitely cooler, but not cold.
The only potential for winter weather in the forecast comes with a small southern storm that will scoot by the region late Sunday night into Monday morning. While the exact track of this system is still uncertain, it does appear that it will focus most of it’s unsettled weather over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois, generally southeast of I-44 in Missouri and south of I-70 in Illinois.
When will the snow fall?
At this time, the big population center of metropolitan St. Louis looks to bypass most, if not all of this system. But, it is a close call. As it stands now, the rain will mix with or change to wet snow over southeast Missouri by sunrise Monday, with a couple of hours of slushy wet snow possible before the system pulls away. There are a lot of caveats to this little system that could affect where and if rain even changes to wet snow, and where it does, what if any may be able to stick.
The air temperatures are very borderline and the ground temperatures are quite warm. However, there are some narrowly focused dynamics setting up in a very skinny zone (a county or two wide at most) that may favor briefly intense snowfall Monday morning. In that 15-20-mile-wide band of snow, the size of the flakes and rate of fall could temporarily overcome the very marginal conditions to produce some slushy accumulations.
How much snow will we get?
It is possible that several inches may actually fall, but because it will melt and compact so quickly, it may be tough to measure much more than an inch or two, if any at all. Unfortunately, falling onto the morning drive is never a good thing and at the very least, I would expect some wet, lightly slushy roads for a brief period Monday morning in the affected areas. Whatever does manage to accumulate will melt away by afternoon as daytime temperatures rebound into the lower 40s in most spots.
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