Where do Trump, Biden stand in battleground states? What polls show 5 days out

Bailey Aldridge
·4 min read

Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading Republican President Donald Trump in all six battleground states with Election Day less than a week away.

But he’s ahead by razor-thin margins in some, polling numbers show.

All six — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — went for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. But this year, they are all considered key swing states that could determine the outcome of the presidential election.

Nationally, Biden is leading Trump by an average of 8.9 percentage points as of Thursday, poll analysis group FiveThirtyEight shows.

Biden has gained ground in some red states not traditionally considered battlegrounds.

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Monday found Biden leading Trump 47% to 46% in Georgia with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In Texas, a poll from The New York Times/Sienna College found Trump leading 47% to 43% with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

Five days out from the election, here’s where the candidates stand in polling averages in key battlegrounds.

Arizona

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 3.5 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 1.3 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight ranks Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes up for grabs, as the fifth most likely state to “deliver the decisive vote” in the presidential election with a 6% chance. It gives Biden a 70% chance of winning the state, which means he is “slightly favored.”

Arizona has historically been a Republican stronghold — last picking a Democrat for president in 1996 when President Bill Clinton defeated Republican nominee Bob Dole, according to Ballotpedia.

Donald Trump carried the state with 48.7% of the vote in 2016.

Florida

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 2.1 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 0.5 percentage points.

Biden had been leading Trump in the RCP average until Tuesday, when the president inched ahead by 0.4 percentage point. The average showed the two tied Wednesday before Biden took back a narrow lead Thursday.

Florida comes in at the No. 2 most likely to be the deciding vote in the presidential election with a 9.3% chance, according to FiveThirtyEight.

FiveThirtyEight says Biden is slightly favored to win the state’s 29 electoral votes, with a 61% chance.

Trump narrowly won Florida in 2016 with 49% of the vote. The state picked Democratic President Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, according to Ballotpedia.

Michigan

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 8.1 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 8.2 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight ranks Michigan as the third most likely to state to be the tipping point in the 2020 presidential race, with an 8.4% chance. It gives Biden a 94% chance of winning the state’s 16 electoral college votes, meaning he is “clearly favored.”

Trump narrowly carried Michigan in 2016 with 47.5% of the vote, per Ballotpedia. It was the first time the state picked a Republican for president since 1988, when former George H.W. Bush beat Democrat Michael Dukakis.

North Carolina

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 2.3 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 0.7 percentage points.

North Carolina ranks sixth on FiveThirtyEight’s list of state’s likely to be the deciding vote, with 5.6% chance.

FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 66% chance of winning the state, meaning he is “slightly favored” to claim the state’s 15 electoral votes.

North Carolina went for Trump by 3.6 percentage points in 2016.

The state picked Obama in 2008 but his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012. The 2008 election was the first time North Carolina went for a Democrat since picking Jimmy Carter in 1976, according to The Charlotte Observer.

Pennsylvania

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 5.2 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 3.5 percentage points.

Pennsylvania is the most likely state to tip the presidential election, with a 40% chance, according to FiveThirtyEight’s predictions.

Biden is favored to win in the state, with an 86% chance, FiveThirtyEight says.

Trump won the state in 2016 with 48.2% of the vote, according to Ballotpedia. But, like in Michigan, it was the first election in which Pennsylvania was won by a Republican since 1988.

Wisconsin

FiveThirtyEight average: Biden leads Trump by 8.5 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics average: Biden leads Trump by 6.4 percentage points.

An ABC News/The Washington Post poll released Wednesday found Biden up by 17 points in Wisconsin — 57% to Trump’s 40% — a massive lead compared to other polling conducted in the state this month. The poll of 809 likely voters and 906 registered voters had margins of error of 4 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points for the two samples, respectively.

Wisconsin is ranked the fourth most likely to be the tipping point by FiveThirtyEight, with a 6.1% chance.

Biden is “clearly favored” to win the state’s 10 electoral votes with a 93% chance, FiveThirtyEight predicts.

Trump scraped by in Wisconsin in 2016, winning 47.2% of the vote compared to Clinton’s 46.5%, per Ballotpedia. It was the first election since 1984 — when President Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic nominee Walter Mondale — that the state went for a Republican.