While China stays on sidelines, pace of in-person international diplomacy quickens

Some of Europe and Asia's most powerful leaders are clocking thousands of air miles in a flurry of diplomatic activity, but there has been one major absentee: China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has not left the country since the coronavirus pandemic began in early 2020 and now, with the country fighting its worst Covid-19 outbreaks yet, is left watching from the sidelines as Europe steps up its engagement with Asian rivals India and Japan.

The whirlwind of diplomacy "is the result of political and economic rationales combined", said a senior EU official. "These [rationales] have long been there, but with the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine they have become more pressing."

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It has gathered momentum since last month's EU-China summit, held by video link, and viewed in European capitals as a disaster. European leaders failed to convince Beijing to use its influence to stall Russia's war on Ukraine, or to address other grievances over trade, human rights and economic coercion.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel hold talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) and his delegation on Thursday in Tokyo. Photo: ZUMA Press Wire/dpa alt=European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel hold talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) and his delegation on Thursday in Tokyo. Photo: ZUMA Press Wire/dpa>

Observers say China's absence from top-level, face-to-face diplomacy could exacerbate these divisions.

"Chinese leadership's absence from in-person meetings increases the risk of Beijing suffering from an echo-chamber effect and further losing touch with reality in the EU, which makes it even harder to navigate an already complicated relationship," said Grzegorz Stec, a Brussels-based analyst of EU-China relations at the German think tank Merics.

It also opens the door for China's rivals.

On May 6, Italian Foreign Affairs Minister Luigi Di Maio finished a three-day visit to India, where he met counterpart S. Jaishankar and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.

This was the first time in 10 years an Italian foreign minister had travelled to India, after two Italian marines fatally shot a pair of Indian fishermen off the coast of Kerala in 2012, starting a legal saga that strained bilateral relations.

Earlier, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met Italian counterpart Mario Draghi, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded a tour of Germany, Denmark and France.

On his first official trip to Asia at the end of April, meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz chose to visit Tokyo instead of Beijing, signalling a departure from the approach of his predecessor, Angela Merkel.

Last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel flew to Tokyo for the EU-Japan summit, in their first visit to East Asia since the start of the pandemic.

By contrast, Xi met European leaders, including von der Leyen, Michel, Sholz and France's Emmanuel Macron, by phone or video conference, while China dispatched a mid-ranking diplomat to Central and Eastern European countries this month to try to dampen the backlash against its stance on the Russian war in Ukraine.

Xi welcomed a series of friendly world leaders in Beijing at the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in February - including Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders from Serbia, Egypt, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan - but has skipped a series of high-level international summits.

"This [absence] in turn encourages the EU to double down on diversifying its relations in Asia under its Indo-Pacific strategy," Stec said.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met with his Italian counterpart on May 6. Photo: EPA-EFE alt=Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met with his Italian counterpart on May 6. Photo: EPA-EFE>

But while China may not be a stop-off point in any of the travel itineraries, it still features on all of the agendas.

Italy's Di Maio and India's S. Jaishankar discussed the Indo-Pacific "in the context of recent geopolitical developments".

Giuseppe Marici, spokesman for the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said of Di Maio's trip to Delhi: "In light of the conflict in Ukraine, we intend to reinforce our presence in Asia, and India is an important market for our exports."

In Rome, Kishida and Draghi both expressed concern about current issues in the region. "Italy, the European Union and Japan share the importance of stability and security in the Indo-Pacific - also with reference to the China Seas and in the Strait," Draghi said.

"The [Russian] aggression in Ukraine undermines the foundations of both the European and international order, including the Indo-Pacific" Kishida added.

EU officials said mainland China and Taiwan were topics for discussion on Thursday in Tokyo, while a joint statement from Modi and Macron insisted on an Indo-Pacific region "free from coercion, tensions and conflicts", confirming their bilateral strategic entente.

This is despite the fact that India has also failed to condemn the war and continues to buy large volumes of Russian fuel.

It all comes as European companies are souring on conditions in China.

A recent survey by the European Chamber of Commerce in China showed that Beijing's zero-Covid policy is negatively affecting European businesses, with 23 per cent of respondents considering shifting their investments to other markets.

Covid-19 restrictions have damaged the supply chains of 92 per cent of respondents, prompting chamber president Joerg Wuttke to describe China's leadership as "prisoners of their own narrative", in an interview with Swiss publication The Market.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi (right) welcomes Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Rome on May 4. Photo: Xinhua alt=Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi (right) welcomes Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Rome on May 4. Photo: Xinhua>

As the war in Ukraine is disrupting supply chains and driving up material and energy prices, business leaders are now forced to account for geopolitical tensions as well.

The current situation "is an opportunity for India and Japan to further pursue closer political and economic relations with Europe", said Frederic Grare, a senior policy fellow with the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

With the negotiations on EU-India agreements on trade, investment and geographical indicators scheduled to restart next month, "perhaps the EU might be willing to compromise on some issues that have stalled talks in the past", he added.

There are, however, signs that senior Chinese leaders may have opted for a less stringent approach to overseas engagement. On Tuesday, Vice-President Wang Qishan attended the inauguration of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in Seoul.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2022 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2022. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.