While DeSantis struggles with his run for president, who's next for Florida governor?

TALLAHASSEE – After sharing pizza in Fort Myers and visiting a cheesesteak landmark in Philadelphia last month with former President Donald Trump, Florida Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is becoming more than just a snacking sidekick.

Donalds has been touted as a Trump vice-presidential contender. And while electoral complexities may prevent the two Florida men from ever sharing a ticket, Donalds has emerged as a frequent Trump promoter on CNN, FOX-News and more.

Their bond also could vault the two-term congressman to the top of a growing list of potential Republican successors to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose own presidential hopes remain darkened by Trump’s shadow.

“Byron is a rock star in the Republican Party,” said Christian Ziegler, chair of the Florida GOP. “He’s led at the state level and now he’s leading at the national level. But we have a deep bench of Florida rock stars.”

Likely Republican contenders looking to follow the term-limited governor in 2026 include: Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez; New College of Florida interim president Richard Corcoran, who is also a former House speaker and state education commissioner; and potentially all three Cabinet members, Attorney General Ashley Moody, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis.

U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach, a Trump acolyte and right-wing firebrand, could also get into the race to replace the term-limited governor. So, too, could Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, now a longshot Republican presidential candidate.

First Lady Casey DeSantis also is talked of by some leading Republicans as considering a run to succeed her husband, if his presidential campaign washes out.

Of course, if DeSantis is sworn-in as president in 2025, Nuñez, the lieutenant governor, would move up to governor and could be running for the seat a year later with added muscle as an incumbent.

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the ... governor?

“I’m sure there are a lot of folks that look in the mirror and see a governor,” said Brian Ballard, a longtime fundraiser, lobbyist and Republican adviser. “But whatever these possible contenders are doing now, it’s all being done quietly and under the radar.”

Democratic candidates also will emerge. But with the party shut out of all statewide offices, gubernatorial possibilities seem to center on a roster of lesser-known members of the state Legislature.

“It’s early,” said Nikki Fried, Florida Democratic Party chair. “My number one focus right now is ‘24 and rebuilding this party. If you are contemplating running for statewide office in Florida, you have to first focus on rebuilding this party in Florida.”

While many of the GOP’s potential contenders are making small moves which could be interpreted as intended to heighten their profiles, Donalds may be garnering the most attention.

The Naples lawmaker – one of a handful of Black Republicans in Congress – earlier this year was nominated for House speaker by hard-right Republican members stalling the eventual, drawn-out win by U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy.

Weeks later, Donalds spearheaded a flood of Congress members from Florida endorsing Trump, defying their home state governor. Since then, he’s appeared alongside Trump, ushering him around his district and introducing the candidate at a Moms for Liberty event in Philadelphia.

At this month’s Turning Point USA conference in West Palm Beach, Donalds finished second to former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake as the preferred Trump running mate next year.

Siding with Trump can be treacherous

But siding with the GOP presidential frontrunner, and his rising tide of legal troubles, is treacherous. DeSantis isn’t likely to forget Donalds’ betrayal, when it eventually comes to endorsing a possible successor for 2026.

“Any Florida congressman who endorsed Trump will be on the outside looking in, either if DeSantis continues with the Republican presidential nomination or just returns to the Capitol as governor with two more years to go,” said Michael Binder, a University of North Florida political scientist and pollster.

DeSantis’ once-luminous presidential hopes have dimmed since formally announcing his candidacy in May. Under a steady barrage of personal and policy attacks from Trump, DeSantis’ poll numbers have stalled even as the governor campaigns relentlessly.

DeSantis also has just shed about one-third of his campaign staff in a belt-tightening and plans to refocus his presidential run on smaller-scale town halls and similar, more personal events.

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Anchored as a far-distant second choice for Republican voters behind Trump, DeSantis’ future appears pinned to the possibility that the former president’s bid for a third nomination will eventually collapse under the weight of his myriad legal problems.

For DeSantis: Iowa, or over?

Even many of DeSantis allies concede that the governor must win the first presidential nominating contest, the Iowa caucuses, in January to have any chance of realistically continuing his bid for the White House.

DeSantis will likely be at the Florida Capitol – briefly – less than a week before Iowa to kick-off the 2024 Florida legislative session.

But Tallahassee could be a different place, depending on DeSantis’ standing.

State Rep. Spencer Roach, R-North Fort Myers, has endorsed DeSantis and says he’s still optimistic about the governor’s chances of winning both the Republican nomination and the presidency.

If that doesn’t happen, though, Roach said, “I don’t know if it changes anything in Tallahassee. Or maybe it changes everything.”

The Republican-controlled Legislature complied with every policy proposal made by DeSantis during the legislative session completed just weeks before he declared his candidacy in a glitch-filled Twitter forum with billionaire Elon Musk.

Measures sailing through the Capitol included a ban on most abortions after 6-weeks of pregnancy, elimination of diversity programs at universities, expanded gun access, new restrictions on immigration, and a host of limits on the LGBTQ community now being cited on the campaign trail by DeSantis as proof of his get-it-done approach to governing and commitment to killing off all things "woke."

What the road to White House shows

But how compliant this Republican supermajority in the Legislature will be next year could depend on how DeSantis’ road to the White House is looking.

“If there is an implosion of his presidential candidacy, where he is embarrassed, it will weaken him here for the remainder of his second term,” said John “Mac” Stipanovich, a frequent DeSantis critic and former chief-of-staff under Republican Gov. Bob Martinez.

“But it would have to be reflected in a fall from popularity among Republican voters in Florida for that to happen,” he added, noting that DeSantis won re-election last fall by a 19-point margin, the largest in a Florida governor’s race in 40 years.

“Absent that, he’ll still be able to intimidate and terrorize the Legislature,” Stipanovich said. “He’d be more vengeful, angrier – even more than now, which is hard to contemplate.”

While one top Republican said, “you don’t start to measure the drapes,” many said they’d expect the potential field of DeSantis successors to take steps to impress during the session beginning in January.

Simpson has sparred cautiously with DeSantis over the governor’s veto of $100 million last month for an agriculture industry priority, the Rural and Family Lands Protection program. Other potential candidates like Patronis, Corcoran and Moody seem eager to cling to DeSantis on all policy matters.

Gaetz, like Donalds, has endorsed Trump over DeSantis.

None seem ready to talk much about their political futures.

Byron Donalds seems ready for ... whatever

“Oh yeah, I would do it,” Donalds told a Vanity Fair reporter for a recent story, when asked if he wants to run for governor. “Would I do it, yes. There’s a lot of other things that have to be answered between saying ‘yes, I would do it’ and...” His voice trailed off.

Donalds also gave a similar “of course,” answer to Breitbart News this month, when asked if he’d accept the role of vice-president on a ticket headed by Trump. The U.S. Constitution complicates the Electoral College vote involving two candidates from the same state on a presidential ticket, likely making a Trump-Donalds match not feasible.

But keeping his name in the national conversation can’t hurt Donalds. He’s also a member of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus, which DeSantis eagerly joined back in his congressional days.

Still, a statewide run would carry its own challenges for Donalds, including that Florida has never elected a Black governor.

“I believe the beating heart of the Republican Party today is fear,” Stipanovich said. “And the essence of that fear involves some version of white flight, and that’s why you’re hearing so much about critical race theory and immigration. It’d be interesting to see how Republican primary voters would react to a Black candidate on a statewide level.”

Democratic allies, for now, are mostly enjoying DeSantis' struggles and the prospect of a free-swinging Republican primary for governor in three years.

“I think Americans are seeing what Floridians already know,” said Anders Croy, spokesman for DeSantis Watch, a website critical of the governor and backed by progressive nonprofit organizations.

“Ron DeSantis’ anti-freedom agenda does nothing to help solve the real issues impacting them every day,” he added. “It will be up to the Legislature and the people of Florida to ensure that we finally address the issues neglected at the altar of Gov. DeSantis’ political ambitions.”

John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jkennedy2@gannett.com, or on Twitter at @JKennedyReport.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida governor race 2026: Who could replace Ron DeSantis?