While overall poverty in Memphis dipped, child poverty rates remain flat, new data shows

On Sept. 12, the U.S. Census Bureau released data that showed the national child poverty rate more than doubled last year, rising from 5.2% in 2021 to 12.4% in 2022. Many experts and politicians attributed this jump to the cessation of the pandemic-era expansion of child tax credits, and they called for the program’s renewal.

Locally, however, the child poverty rate didn’t increase. Instead, it stayed the same.

A loss of momentum?

According to the 2023 Memphis Poverty Fact Sheet, the child poverty rate in the Bluff City was 32.7% in 2022, the same number calculated in 2021. Elena Delavega and Gregory Blumenthal, the creators of the report, believe that Memphis could have bucked the nationwide trend, in part, because of its role as a distribution and logistics hub ― which provided a significant number of jobs amid the pandemic’s e-commerce boom.

But at the same time, they caution people not to celebrate the lack of an increase, as 32.7% is still significantly higher than both the national average of 12.4% and the statewide average of 17.6%. Behind Detroit and Houston, Memphis’ child poverty rate is third in the nation, among cities with populations above 500,000.

And in recent years, Delavega and Blumenthal noted, the child poverty rate in Memphis had been trending downward. Now, that momentum seems to have stalled.

“When we see it being about the same, we think, ‘Yay, it's not increased,’” said Delavega, a professor at the University of Memphis School of Social Work. “But what we're not seeing is that we lost all that momentum of poverty coming down that we have had.”

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From 2009 to 2018, the child poverty rate was around or above 40%. In 2014, it reached 46.9%, and in 2018, it stood at 44.9%. Then, in 2019, the rate dropped to 35%. In 2020, amid the onset of the pandemic, it rose to 39.6%, before falling again in 2021 to 32.7% ― where it remained in 2022.

Delavega and Blumenthal noted that the end of expanded child-tax credit could have helped prevent a further decrease locally, just as it contributed to the increase nationwide. The program, which ended in late 2021, had briefly guaranteed income to families with children around the country.

But they also maintained that the doggedly high child poverty rate in Memphis stemmed from deeper root causes, like public transportation issues and low wages.

“You don't get child poverty just by magic; you get it because the parents are poor,” said Blumenthal, the owner of GMBS Consulting. “That is definitely because we still are very much a low-wage economy. You're going to have a higher percentage of children, either right on that line or falling below.”

Overall rates

Though the child poverty rate in Memphis was stagnant in 2022, the overall poverty rate dipped slightly, decreasing from 22.6% to 21.4%. When you take a closer look, you see that the poverty rate among Black residents in the city also decreased, sliding from 26.5% to 24.7%. And the poverty rate among Hispanics dropped from 27.5% to 22.7%.

“The Hispanic population continues to improve year over year,” Blumenthal said. “As it’s growing numerically in Memphis and Shelby County, it’s also growing economically in Memphis and Shelby County.”

It was the poverty rate among white Memphians that ticked upward, rising from 10.3% to 12.2% ― which Delavega and Blumenthal speculated could be the result of more middle-class white families moving to surrounding areas outside of the city.

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Overall, Delavega asserted, major disparities remain, as the median household income of a white family in Memphis was $76,861 in 2022, significantly more than the $41,974 household income of a Black family or $60,376 of a Hispanic family.

And Memphis’ poverty rate of 21.4% remained the fifth highest in the nation in 2022, among cities with a population of at least 500,000. More broadly, Shelby County had a poverty rate of 16.5% in 2022, and the entire Memphis area had a poverty rate of 15.7% ― down slightly from 17.9% and 16.9% in 2021, respectively.

How poverty is measured

While the overall poverty rates in the Mid-South have ticked downward, Delavega and Blumenthal feel that the way poverty is measured is outdated and flawed. The model used to determine poverty is largely based on the method developed by economist Mollie Orshansky, who created it while researching childhood poverty for the Social Security Administration in 1963.

“We have this very artificial poverty threshold,” Delavega asserted. “It hasn’t [fully] captured poverty for a long time.”

For example, in 2023, the poverty threshold for a family of four is $30,000, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. But according to estimates from the research-focused nonprofit Slingshot Memphis ― which noted $30,000 as the poverty line ― a living wage for a family of that size in the Bluff City would be $58,500, a significantly larger number.

And Delavega believes that a family of four "really needs around $70,000 to be in the middle class."

“We're dropping people in poverty from the count,” she said.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Poverty in Memphis: overall poverty dips, child poverty rate holds flat