Argus Research
The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index, will be released today. The index differs from the better-known Consumer Price Index in that its composition is changed more frequently and is quicker to reflect the impact of real-time pricing fluctuations. In the most recent report (November), PCE inflation was reported at 5.5% (the latest CPI report, from December, had inflation at 6.5%). We forecast a rate of 5.0% for the November PCE Price Index. Core PCE, which removes volatile food and energy prices, was 4.7% in the latest month. We expect the Core PCE to tick lower to 4.5% this month. Overall, inflation appears to have peaked during the summer and continues to decline. We indicate that prices are rising at a 4.8% rate year-over-year, down from 8.7% six months ago. Focusing on core inflation -- which we obtain by averaging Core CPI, market-based PCE Ex-Food & Energy, the core GDP PCE Price Index, the five-year forward inflation expectation rate and the 10-year TIPs Break-even Interest Rate -- our reading is 3.9%, down slightly from our 4.2% reading last month. We note some movement among our components. Producer Prices appear to be cooling, with substantial declines in PPI Intermediate Prices for Processed and Unprocessed Goods. The rate of wage increases also is slowing down. Investors are expecting that the Federal Reserve's series of rate hikes ultimately will tame inflation, with the three-year forward expectation rate now down to 3.0% and the five-year forward expectation rate at 2.3%.