Whitmania: Dems eye Michigan gov’s sister for battleground House race

The Whitmer political dynasty might be expanding — into the New York City suburbs.

Liz Whitmer Gereghty, the Westchester County-based sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, is seriously considering a run for one of the House’s most high-profile battleground seats this cycle, according to two people familiar with her thinking who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss her plans.

If she runs, Gereghty would be targeting GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, who shockingly upset House Democrats’ campaign chief last cycle. A launch is tentatively planned for mid-April, according to a person familiar with her plans — which would likely make her the first Democrat to declare a bid. And Gereghty, who’s lived in the area for two decades, boasts connections to one of the party's most prominent figures that could bring a dose of star power to any potential bid.

Reelected last year as a Board of Education trustee for the Katonah-Lewisboro school district, Gereghty graduated from Duke University’s business school and serves as a small-business consultant. She's a neophyte to congressional politics, though. And she's unlikely to have the field to herself.

Democrats see the Hudson Valley seat as one of their best pickup opportunities in next year’s election, given that the district remains deeply blue — voters there favored President Joe Biden by 10 points in 2020 — despite the GOP’s gains during last year’s midterms. It’s still early in the cycle, but party strategists say recruitment here and in several other New York battlegrounds will be their top priority for 2024.

The New York-based seats are of particular interest to House Democratic leaders, given their Biden-friendly lean and proximity to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ district.

House Majority PAC has already signaled it’s willing to spend heavily in the state, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has singled out Lawler’s seat among several other New York districts that the party aims to flip next year to try to return to the majority. And Jeffries, along with Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), has called for an after-action report on the 2022 elections in New York and the party’s shortcomings.

Republicans remain confident in Lawler, however, given his high name ID and lifelong roots in the community. They expect the first-term incumbent to attract plenty of party support — fundraising and otherwise — ahead of next November in light of his high-profile win last year.

Asked about the potential challengers, a spokesperson for Lawler's campaign said the New York Republican is focused on policy issues like reducing congestion pricing, lifting the SALT cap and bringing down energy prices. "His focus is, and will continue to be, serving the people of the Hudson Valley and getting things done that improve their quality of life," said Chris Russell, Lawler's chief strategist.

On the Democratic side, some more familiar names could enter the mix against Lawler. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) has publicly expressed interest in a run but is still undecided, according to two people familiar with his thinking.

Jones is likely to make a decision in the next month or two, one of those people said. (Jones represented a large part of the district before it was redrawn in 2022, though he ultimately ran and lost for a New York City-based district instead.) He has stayed active in local politics and is set to headline a local party dinner later in April.

“I’ve been encouraging him to run. I think he can win it and we can take that district back,” said Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), who is a friend of Jones. “I really, quite honestly, think he got the short end of the stick in 2022.”

Former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the onetime DCCC chief who lost the seat by roughly 1,800 votes last November, also hasn’t ruled out a bid, according to a person close to him. Several Democratic members and strategists, though, were privately skeptical he would jump into the race.

So far, Gereghty is generating perhaps the most buzz among New York political circles. While she has a limited public presence so far, her sister, Gretchen Whitmer, is one of the most popular figures in Democratic politics and won reelection in a swing state last year by 11 points.

Since redistricting reforms gave Democrats control of both chambers of Michigan’s state legislature and the governorship for the time in 40 years, they have been on a legislative tear, enacting protections for LGBTQ residents and anti-gun violence laws as well as codifying abortion rights.

And Gretchen Whitmer isn't the family's only political stalwart: Their father served in the administration of former Gov. William Milliken, a Republican, and her mother was a state assistant attorney general. Her family is also close to the Dingells, including Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), who has been helping Gereghty with the early stages of her New York run.

The Detroit Free Press reported in 2020, as the governor's star began to rise, that Gereghty saved Whitmer’s number in her phone as “The Woman from Michigan” — a reference to the derisive nickname that Gretchen Whitmer earned from then-President Donald Trump.

Michigan, the Whitmers' home state, is known for its political dynasties, such as the Levins, the Conyers, the Dingells and the Kildees. But the Mitten isn't alone there: Indiana GOP Rep. Greg Pence captured an open congressional seat in 2018 while his brother Mike was serving as vice president. And Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) served in Congress with his brother, Lincoln. On top of that, countless children have replaced their parents in office.

But famous relatives don’t always propel their families to electoral success. One recent example: Levi Sanders, the son of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), was trounced in a 2018 Democratic primary for a New Hampshire House seat.