It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Allegheny Technologies (ATI). Shares have added about 7.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegheny Technologies due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Allegheny Beats Earnings and Sales Estimates in Q4
Allegheny slipped to a net loss of $1,121 million or $8.85 per share in fourth-quarter 2020 from net income of $56.5 million or 41 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.
Excluding one-time items, adjusted loss per share was 33 cents, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 37 cents.
The company delivered revenues of $658.3 million in the quarter, down 35.4% year over year. Nevertheless, the figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $589.5 million.
In the fourth quarter, revenues in the HPMC segment declined 55% year over year to $222.3 million. The company stated that 74% of unit sales were attributable to the aerospace and defense markets. EBITDA in the unit was $7.5 million against $92.9 million in the prior-year quarter. Reduced asset utilization rates and lower overall demand affected operating margins.
The AA&S segment’s sales fell 16% year over year to $436 million. Total sales to all energy markets declined 18% year over year. EBITDA in the division totalled $29.5 million compared with $48 million in the prior-year quarter. Improved sales of high-value products at Specialty Alloys & Components business and the STAL joint venture and cost reduction had a positive impact on EBITDA.
Loss (as reported) for full-year 2020 was $12.43 per share against earnings of $1.85 per share a year ago. Net sales fell 27.7% year over year to roughly $2.98 billion.
Allegheny ended the year with cash and cash equivalents of $645.9 million, up 31.6% year over year. Long-term debt increased 11.7% year over year at $1,550 million.
Cash provided by operating activities for the fourth quarter of 2020 was $121.9 million.
Allegheny expects first-quarter of 2021 results to be affected by the resurgence of coronavirus cases and low global air passenger travel. For 2021, it anticipates demand to start rebound with the approval and administration of vaccines around the world.
The company is expecting an improvement in demand in second half of 2021 owing to rising narrow-body engine production volumes, jet engine-related share gains and new business in airframes. It is focused on delivering the best to its customers, transform its specialty rolled business as well as sustain strength of its balance sheet and cash-generation efforts.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted 24.32% due to these changes.
At this time, Allegheny Technologies has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Allegheny Technologies has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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