Why Chelsea need to transition to a back four to challenge Manchester City next season
Chelsea and Manchester City seem to go hand in hand at present: Champions League finalists, the first two Premier League clubs to walk away from the Super League and two of the only clubs in Europe able to spend unperturbed by the financial carnage of a global pandemic. Could they be first and second in the league table next season?
With both clubs expected to 'go again' in the transfer market, nobody would be surprised especially given the seamless start made by Chelsea coach Thomas Tuchel since his appointment in January. Despite the packed schedule and no pre-season, Tuchel's Chelsea have already developed clockwork reliability with and without the ball. Players always seem to know their options in possession, while the use of a back three has offered Chelsea much needed stability. Since Tuchel arrived, Chelsea have kept 11 clean sheets in 17 league games, conceding just 10 goals. It is the kind of frugality that defined their title-winning sides.
A quick scan of the underlying numbers suggests Chelsea are viable contenders. At the time of writing, their expected goals tally in attack is behind only Manchester City. In defence, their expected goals against tally is bettered only by City. Expected goal difference has them second in the league behind, you guessed it, City. In short, Chelsea are unlikely to budge from the top three of four.
One area they will be keen to improve on though - as links with Erling Haaland not so subtly reveal - is goals scored. Chelsea have scored 55 league goals to United's 68 and City's 72. That is almost exactly aligned with an expected goals tally of 54.68, so Chelsea's finishing has been lukewarm with 10 Premier League teams recording a bigger positive differential between goals scored and expectation. This corresponds closely to their shot conversion rate of 11.1 per cent, bettered by 11 teams. Chelsea have not been especially unlucky or wayward in front of goal, just very middling.
If they are to wrestle the title away from City, they will need to either create more chances or go on a hotter finishing streak. One way to achieve the latter is to spend big money on an elite striker to offer more penalty box threat and devastation. Tuchel's Chelsea have looked at their best, against Real Madrid in the Champions League for instance, when they are sprinting through teams with pacy counter-attacks.
When teams bank up behind the ball, goals do not always come freely. Chelsea have been held to goalless draws by Wolves, Manchester United, Leeds United and Brighton under Tuchel and were beaten at home by Arsenal. Their proportion of possession in those games was 78 per cent, 57 per cent, 62 per cent, 64 per cent and 68 per cent. Against deep-lying defences, Chelsea can lack the penalty area punch that makes the difference. A more muscular No 9 who wants to engage centre-backs physically could make all the difference. Tammy Abraham and Olivier Giroud are internal solutions but look like moving on.
Alternatively, Chelsea could put their faith in Timo Werner's luck changing. Unlike other players who have suffered the Chelsea striker curse, Werner does not look disenchanted or out of place. Fans have appreciated his endeavour and the way his movement creates chances for others. After out-stripping expected goals in his final two seasons in Germany, Werner has lagged well behind this season scoring six goals from an xG of almost 12. Add in all those close offside calls, and it is entirely possible that Werner's goal tally increases simply as the result of natural variance.
Tuchel could also look to evolve Chelsea's system to get another forward into the team. Playing three central defenders is usually considered something of a compromise. Even Antonio Conte - who has won plenty with a back three, notably at Chelsea - professes a preference for 4-2-4. Tuchel has not been tied down to one formation throughout his career but is certainly happy to play with four if the personnel is right. He would need to settle on a preferred centre-back pairing, which could be Thiago Silva and Antonio Rudier should the Brazilian extend his stay. With Jorginho, Mateo Kovacic and the revitalised N'Golo Kante central midfield options, it could be argued Chelsea would benefit from a more creative or forward-running midfielder for the sake of variety.
Chelsea have the consistency, depth and solidity to challenge for the title. Now they just need the cutting edge.
