Why the Colts can win — and why they might not — for each game on 2022 schedule

The Colts are pushing through the offseason schedule, the first since 2019, which now has a clear road map in place: The schedule is out, and it lays out 17 obstacles to reaching the postseason.

That's certainly the goal after falling short in embarrassing fashion during last year's 9-8 campaign. It's become more front-of-mind since the trade for Matt Ryan, who turned 37 years old this month. But to make it happen, they must avoid some of their pitfalls of recent seasons.

Here's a case for why they could win each game on this year's schedule -- and a case for why they might not:

Sept. 11: Colts at Texans (Week 1)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET (NRG Stadium)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: The Colts certainly could have had a tougher first game for the new Matt Ryan offense and Gus Bradley defense than a Texans team they trounced by a combined score of 62-3 last season. After trading Deshaun Watson this spring, the Texans have made it clear they're embracing a rebuild that will feature quarterback Davis Mills behind a young offensive line. It's a prime setting for Yannick Ngakoue, DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye to try out this new attacking scheme, leaving a reasonable first task for Ryan as a Colt.

Why they might not: It's possible the Texans are better than people realize, with a new coach in Lovie Smith and a quarterback in Mills who threw nine touchdowns to two interceptions with a 102.4 quarterback rating in the final five games last season after facing the Colts. Indianapolis has found ways to lose season openers since 2013, and a new defensive scheme and quarterback could find another way on the road in Week 1.

Sept. 18: Colts at Jaguars (Week 2)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET (TIAA Bank Field)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: Both of these teams spent money in the offseason, but the Colts landed better players such as Ngakoue, Stephon Gilmore and most notably Ryan, who will not wilt with the game on his shoulders the way Carson Wentz did on this field last season. The Jaguars are hurrying to fix Trevor Lawrence with a new coach in Doug Pederson and shouldn't be rolling by Week 2. If the Colts can block Josh Allen better with either Matt Pryor or Bernhard Raimann and with Ryan's quick release, the Jaguars don't have enough other star players to take over the game.

Why they might not: Logic often doesn't mean anything when the Colts travel to Jacksonville, where they have not won since 2014. If this team plays its worst game again in this spot, it doesn't have the continuity with Ryan and the new defense to wake up quickly and pull out of it. Jacksonville made life tough on Jonathan Taylor for the final seven quarters they faced off last season, so it could put the pressure on Ryan to win the game.

Sept. 25: Colts vs. Chiefs (Week 3)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. (Lucas Oil Stadium)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: The Colts have a nice couple of tune-up games before they have to take on a giant in the AFC, but that giant might not be as mighty this year. Kansas City has to pay the premium rate to quarterback Patrick Mahomes now, which means losing toys like Tyreek Hill. Instead, a reworked Colts secondary will contend with a receiving corps of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore in their third game together. Add in a Chiefs defense that has to replace Tyrann Mathieu and struggles early in the season, and this could be a nice spot for Ryan and Taylor to take over.

Why they might not: The Chiefs still have Mahomes and Andy Reid, which means every team is at a disadvantage at the most important position. Ryan might not be gelling enough with a young receiving corps to match scores if the Chiefs are finding ways to exploit the Colts' single-high looks. With Julian Blackmon coming off a knee injury, the back end could be shaky enough early in the season to spring a leak.

Oct. 2: Colts vs. Titans (Week 4)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET (Lucas Oil Stadium)

TV: FOX

Why the Colts can win: After being swept by Tennessee last season, the Colts went out and upgraded the position that cost them most in those games at quarterback. They should be able to trust Ryan to play a much more safe and steadily productive game than Wentz, who completed just 52% of his passes in two meetings last season. The bar for the offense should be lower after the Titans swapped out A.J. Brown for a rookie in Treylon Burks, a scheme-able chess piece who will need time to get going.

Why they might not: The Titans still have the defense that gave the Colts fits last year, and Ryan can only fix so much if Harold Landry, Denico Autry, Jeffery Simmons and Bud DuPree are breathing down his neck. The same goes for a receiving corps banking on a rookie in Alec Pierce and a slot receiver in Parris Campbell to be healthy and productive. If the Colts have an early offensive dud this season, it wouldn't be surprising if it happened here.

Oct. 6: Colts at Broncos (Week 5)

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (Empower Field at Mile High)

TV: Prime Video

Why the Colts can win: Short trips are never fun on the road team, but at least this one comes early in the season. Both teams are breaking in new veteran quarterbacks, but the Colts have more in place with Frank Reich, Taylor and the rest of the playbook returning. As both passing games are looking to find their stride and hampered by a shortened week, the team that can hand off to Taylor should have the advantage.

Why they might not: Like Mahomes, Russell Wilson is the type of quarterback who can kill a team that plays so many single-safety sets. He's the type of unique player who doesn't need as much built-in structure to deliver, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him create some explosive plays with Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton. With Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory off the edges and Patrick Surtain and Justin Simmons in coverage, Denver has the defense to hurt an offense on a short week.

Oct. 16: Colts vs. Jaguars (Week 6)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET (Lucas Oil Stadium)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: The game isn't in Jacksonville, for one. The first meeting between these teams should give the Colts a better understanding for how a new coaching staff wants to attack them. Even if Lawrence is making strides, it's a developing passing game going on the road against a crowd that's sick of dealing with them, and Indianapolis has the veterans on defense to make them pay. Theoretically.

Why they might not: It's still Jacksonville, and even the games in Lucas Oil Stadium are a challenge. Marvin Jones has given Kenny Moore II fits in a couple of matchups, and now the Jaguars have Christian Kirk to move around and create additional stresses. If the left tackle spot is still a question mark, Allen has the ability to create a game-changing play against an aging quarterback.

Oct. 23: Colts at Titans (Week 7)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET (Nissan Stadium)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: This is a short turnaround from the first meeting to the second, but it offers an opportunity for the Colts to exploit any Titans holes that formed in the first matchup. Namely, Tennessee's young cornerbacks could be in a tough spot if Michael Pittman Jr. has gotten something rolling with Ryan, who has been delivering YAC opportunities across the middle of the field his whole career. On the other side, the Titans passing game seems to have a ceiling with Tannehill and with Burks still a rookie.

Why they might not: It's not often the Colts face a team with a running game that can match their own, but Derrick Henry offers that, and it should keep these games within reach. The Titans are likely to bring their best to this game given its enormous and obvious divisional implications, and the reigning champions are not going to give away their crown without a fight. Tight games go to the home teams more often than not.

Oct. 30: Colts vs. Commanders (Week 8)

Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET (Lucas Oil Stadium)

TV: FOX

Why the Colts can win: The return of Wentz to Indianapolis comes at an interesting time, in semi-primetime at Lucas Oil Stadium and, potentially, as Ryan has gotten a chance to get rolling. The Colts will be no stranger to the concepts that cause Wentz problems, such as disguised blitzes, safety cloud coverages and situations where he has to throw to win the game. If they play it right, their defense should be too much for Washington on the road.

Why they might not: It's possible Wentz has a few big plays to make in this game, and he has the talent to take advantage in Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin and first-round rookie Jahan Dotson. Washington is so strong up front defensively with first-round picks Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen that if Indianapolis has any leaks on an offensive line with two new starters, it could spell trouble.

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Nov. 6: Colts at Patriots (Week 9)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET (Gillette Stadium)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: If Taylor is anywhere near as effective as he was against this team last year, when he ran for 170 yards and a back-breaking 67-yard touchdown, it might be enough against a Patriots offense in a very strange transition. Josh McDaniels is gone and they have not named another offensive play-caller. That's a murky spot to put second-year quarterback Mac Jones in, and the Colts had their way with him last season when they did have McDaniels.

Why they might not: It would surprise nobody if Bill Belichick had a master plan we're just not seeing yet, and if it leads to Jones taking a step forward now that he has better receivers, it'll be a different game than a year ago. Belichick will again sell out to stop Taylor in this game, and if the plan is more effective, it'll challenge young Colts receivers to make plays in a pretty hostile environment. New England's defense isn't a fun time for any offense trying to find itself.

Nov. 13: Colts at Raiders (Week 10)

Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET (Allegiant Stadium)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: The Colts would have beaten this team last season had they had anything resembling a passing game by the time they played. Even with Rock Ya-Sin now starting for them, the Raiders are vulnerable in the secondary, and Ryan should be able to find those mismatches pre-snap to give his lengthy receivers opportunities. The Raiders offense could still be in transition with McDaniels running a different scheme, and it has enough leaks on the offensive line for a revenge game for Ngakoue to play a significant role.

Why they might not: This Raiders offense is loaded now that it has DaVante Adams in addition to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, who gave Moore II a hard time in their matchup last season. Derek Carr will know what he's facing in Bradley's defense after practicing against it last season, and those single-high safety looks could become a problem. With Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby, the Raiders have the pass rush to make their secondary questions not matter all that much.

Nov. 20: Colts vs. Eagles (Week 11)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET (Lucas Oil Stadium)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: In a battle of familiar coaching staffs, the edge should go to the better quarterback. Playing in a dome in late November will place the spotlight on the passing game a little more, and Ryan could find Pittman Jr., Pierce or Campbell for explosive gains against a secondary without great safety play. The Colts have the athleticism at linebacker with Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke to handle Jalen Hurts as he plays on the move, and taking away scramble lanes could make for a limited offense.

Why they might not: Nick Sirianni and Jonathan Gannon will know what Reich and the Colts offense are doing about as well as anyone could. The addition of James Bradberry opposite Darius Slay gives the Eagles two cover corners they can press into the grills of Colts receivers who aren't the most experienced at winning in those situations. Brown has beaten the Colts defense up before and could do it again if Hurts can get on the move to find him.

Nov. 28: Colts vs. Steelers (Week 12)

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (Lucas Oil Stadium)

TV: ESPN

Why the Colts can win: Lucas Oil Stadium was a rocking venue for last year's primetime showdown against the Patriots, and though the Steelers don't carry quite the same vitriol, it's reasonable to expect a fan base that doesn't get many of these to show out. Whether it's Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett starting for the Steelers, the quarterback could be overwhelmed by the moment, the crowd and the pass rush of Ngakoue, Buckner, Paye and Odeyingbo.

Why they might not: It's possible Trubisky or Pickett is in a groove by Week 12, allowing skill players such as Najee Harris and Chase Claypool to make the plays to negate the Colts' pass rush. Elite defenses tend to travel, and the Steelers could have one again this season with Pro Bowlers Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt messing things up front for Minkah Fitzpatrick to clean up on the back end. If the Colts have left tackle issues, Watt is the kind of player who can single-handedly wreck the game. After all, he is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.

Dec. 4: Colts at Cowboys (Week 13)

Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET (AT&T Stadium)

TV: NBC

Why the Colts can win: This could be the part of the schedule where the new Ryan-led offense gets rolling. He of all quarterbacks won't be overwhelmed by a primetime game in Dallas, and he could have a big night in a dome setting in December against a Cowboys defense that features a great pass rush but some exploitable young players in coverage. Dak Prescott lost his security blanket in Amari Cooper this offseason, so if Stephon Gilmore can neutralize CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys could struggle to answer the blows.

Why they might not: Back-to-back primetime games with the second on the road can exhaust some energy. With such a late bye week, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Colts limping into this game, and they're playing on a short week. Prescott has the mobility to get away from Indianapolis' rush, and he, Lamb and Dalton Schultz could exploit some young members of the secondary. Like Watt, Micah Parsons is the type of rusher who can wreck a game.

Week 14 - BYE

Dec. 17/18: Colts at Vikings (Week 15)

Kickoff: TBD (U.S. Bank Stadium)

TV: TBD

Why the Colts can win: It's no fun waiting 13 games for a bye week, but the flip side is the Colts will be rested at this late stage in the season while some other teams could be hobbled. The Vikings do not have the depth for Danielle Hunter or Justin Jefferson to not be at 100%. Great pass rushes have long been Kirk Cousins' Achilles Heel, and the Colts could have one licking its chops after a week to recharge. Another dome setting will be nice to Ryan and the passing game.

Why they might not: That dome setting also helps Cousins and Jefferson, and that connection is the type that even elite defenses have a hard time stopping. Hunter can take over a game just like Watt and Parsons can, but the Vikings also have Za'Darius Smith screaming off the opposite edge. With no Jack Doyle to compensate on either side, it's not hard to envision that tandem being the right recipe to mess up any game plan the Colts want to put together.

Dec. 26: Colts vs. Chargers (Week 16)

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET (Lucas Oil Stadium)

TV: ESPN

Why the Colts can win: By this point, primetime games are nothing new to the Colts. They won't be new to the Chargers either, but Justin Herbert and their other stars haven't played in as many big games. Los Angeles spent this offseason retooling the offensive line, making it an area the Colts can exploit to limit what Herbert can do. The Chargers' home-field advantage is also one of the weaker in the NFL, to the point where plenty of Colts fans could be in attendance to make for a strange atmosphere.

Why they might not: A primetime game this late in the year could coincide with Herbert taking another step into superstardom; that seems only natural after he threw for 38 touchdowns and more than 5,000 yards in his second season in 2021. Herbert's deep-ball connection with Mike Williams could torch the single-high safety looks they know to expect from a Bradley defense they saw last year with the Raiders. Joey Bosa is yet another game wrecker, and the Chargers could have the best defense on the Colts' schedule if it all comes together.

Jan. 1: Colts at Giants (Week 17)

Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET (MetLife Stadium)

TV: CBS

Why the Colts can win: The Colts could see two tanking teams in the final two weeks. The new Giants regime keeps gutting an expensive and mediocre roster that has won all of 22 games over the past five seasons. There's no telling how many young players will be playing with veterans on injured reserve by this late point in the season. A Colts defense that's really coming into its own could feast on an overwhelmed Daniel Jones, and the Giants just don't have the cornerbacks to run new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale's blitz-heavy approach.

Why they might not: After a string of dome games and warm locales, the Colts have to travel to one of the colder and more blustery places to play on New Year's Day. Those trips don't often suit teams that play their home games in a dome. If Kayvon Thibodeaux has a breakout rookie year, he could combine with Leonard Williams to give Ryan all kinds of trouble off the snap. New York hired Brian Daboll to try to fix Jones as he once did Josh Allen, and if it works, he'll have Saquon Barkley to score enough to win a cold, defensive battle.

Jan. 8/9: Colts vs. Texans (Week 18)

Kickoff: TBD (Lucas Oil Stadium)

TV: TBD

Why the Colts can win: If this game is of consequence to the Colts, it's hard to see them laying down in the final week against such an inferior opponent again. The Texans didn't score a touchdown on the Colts last year and won't have an easier time with Gilmore and Ngakoue added to the defense. Like the Giants, the Texans could be giving looks to younger players and placing veteran on injured reserve, right as the Colts are trying to hit their stride entering the playoffs.

Why they might not: We saw Week 18 in Jacksonville last season. This is another AFC South opponent who would love to have a chance to knock the Colts out of the playoffs. A total of 17 weeks will have passed since the first meeting, and perhaps Houston has taken some strides under first-year coach Lovie Smith. It's also possible the Colts have wrapped up the playoffs and are resting some starters.

Contact Colts insider Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts: The cases for and against winning each game on 2022 schedule