Why did Nikki Haley outperform Donald Trump in Austin?

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AUSTIN (KXAN) — With the Texas presidential primaries in the rearview mirror we wanted to know: what does Nikki Haley’s strong primary performance in Austin mean for the general election?

So we dug into digital data reporter Christopher Adams’s precinct-level primary result maps. They show how the presidential candidates fared in different parts of the state, precinct by precinct.

MAP: How Texans voted in the 2024 Republican presidential primary

President Joe Biden — represented in blue on these maps — dominated against his challengers in the Democratic primary in Texas.

The map below is interactive. Hover over or click on a precinct to see results.

In the Republican primary, former President Trump — represented in red on these maps — walked away with a strong win statewide.

The map below is interactive. Hover over or click on a precinct to see results.

However, when we zoomed into the city of Austin specifically, we noticed a different pattern. Austin’s precinct map showed a lot more orange than red. That orange represents Nikki Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and governor of South Carolina who has since dropped out of the race.

Other big Texas cities like Houston and Dallas didn’t follow the same pattern. Their primary result maps show a strong lead for Trump.

We asked St. Edward’s University professor Brian W. Smith for context on Austin’s primary results, and he said Austin’s unique trend is most likely explained by low Republican voter turnout.

“We’re seeing much lower numbers of turnout among the Republicans than we are as we go further east away from Austin or further west out towards Lakeway and Cedar Park,” Smith said. “The city of Austin tends to be more liberal, more progressive, and a candidate like Donald Trump, even among Republicans, is going to maybe make people a little bit angry.”

The Biden campaign has worked to lure those former Haley supporters through messaging and political ads.

Smith said Trump and his team are likely relying on history, and they’re confident Haley’s followers will eventually coalesce behind the former president.

“In 2016, we kept hearing about all these Republicans saying, ‘you know what? I’m never going to vote for Donald Trump,’” Smith said, “But at the end of the day, the ‘never Trumpers’ never materialized.”

Smith said he think’s Haley’s voters will eventually vote for Trump in the general election, “simply because if you’re a Haley voter, you’re looking and saying, ‘between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who am I worse off with?,’ not necessarily, ‘who am I better off with?’ For a lot of [Republicans], they’re going to say, ‘we’re worse off with four more years of Biden than four years of Donald Trump.’”

Smith said Trump winning Texas will likely hinge on cities like Midland, Odessa and Lubbock, not Austin. When it comes to winning the White House, Smith said Biden has a path to victory with or without Texas, but Texas is a “must win” for Trump.

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