Why drought conditions are spreading across NC, and might not get better until 2024

Gareth McGrath, USA TODAY NETWORK
·4 min read
Recent rains have helped refill Wilmington-area ponds, like this one at New Hanover County's Ogden Park. But the region, like almost all of North Carolina, continues to be mired in drought.
Recent rains have helped refill Wilmington-area ponds, like this one at New Hanover County's Ogden Park. But the region, like almost all of North Carolina, continues to be mired in drought.

Despite some recent rains, Southeastern North Carolina and almost all of the state remains mired in drought for the third straight year heading into winter.

The drought, which began in late summer in parts of the state but really picked up steam in the fall, has left millions of North Carolinians watching creeks, ponds and other bodies of water slowly shrivel and their lawns go browner earlier. Although few mandatory or voluntary water restrictions have been issued across the state, the streak of dry weather has state and local officials on edge.

Klaus Albertin, chair of the N.C. Drought Management Advisory Council (DMAC), said rains that fell post-Thanksgiving could help prevent the drought from getting worse, but would likely do little to change the overall picture in most parts of the state.

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“Typically, rain for this time a year is about an inch a week,” Albertin said in a release last week. “If we get an inch and a half, it could help, but may not improve conditions dramatically. The mid- to long-term forecast is still for a wet winter due to the El Niño pattern, but it’s expected to be January before we start to see big impacts.”

As of pre-Thanksgiving, nearly 94% of North Carolina was suffering from some form of drought or dry conditions, with the worst affected areas in the western parts of the state near the Georgia and Tennessee state lines. That compares to just over 66% of the state at this time last year.

According to the DMAC, more than 7.5 million state residents were in areas impacted by drought, with all or parts of 96 of North Carolina's 100 counties classified as abnormally dry or worse.

After weeks of little to no rain across most of the state, 96 of North Carolina's 100 counties are classified as facing dry conditions or worse.
After weeks of little to no rain across most of the state, 96 of North Carolina's 100 counties are classified as facing dry conditions or worse.

Sign of things to come?

Although not much is growing now and tourists have left coastal areas, easing the pressure on many water systems, the long lag time between periods of consistent rains could be a harbinger of things to come for the Tar Heel State as climate change continues to impact traditional weather patterns and conditions.

Climatologists predict climate change will bring hotter and drier conditions to the Carolinas in the coming years and decades, pocketed with a few heavy precipitation events − such as those tied to bigger and more powerful tropical weather systems fueled by the warming oceans.

In Wilmington, the wet weather has been largely absent for weeks. With tropical storms largely giving the Cape Fear region a pass this hurricane season, the region's rainfall amounts have dropped off significantly. In October, the Port City saw less than 1 inch of rain versus a normal monthly amount of nearly 4.7 inches. That trend continued into November, with the weather service recording just over 1 inch of measurable rain at Wilmington International Airport through Nov. 20 versus a normal amount of 2.4 inches. According to the National Weather Service's Wilmington office, 90-day rainfall totals before Thanksgiving were nearly 7 inches below normal.

But nearly 3 inches of rain in the past week have helped erase some of the precipitation deficit in the Port City, with ILM recording more than 4.13 inches of rain for November through Tuesday versus a normal amount of 3.33 inches. For the year through Nov. 28, Wilmington has seen just under 51 inches of rain compared to a normal amount of more than 56 inches.

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The El Niño pattern that has taken hold of the world's weather could help recharge water supplies in the region before the spring warm up, which also will see water demand surge as farmers tend to their fields and tourists again flock to Wilmington-area beaches.

According to the weather service's 2023-24 winter outlook for the Cape Fear region, the last two strong El Niño events, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016, both brought exceptional rainfall totals across the coastal Carolinas. That includes more than 23 inches of rain that fell in Wilmington between December 1997 and February 1998 − the wettest winter season in over 150 years of records.

"Given the moderate to severe drought conditions that are currently in place over large portions of the Carolinas, an outlook of increased chances for substantial rainfall is very good news," the reports states, adding that an increase in winter rainfall is the single largest impact El Niño typically brings to the eastern Carolinas.

Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at GMcGrath@Gannett.com or @GarethMcGrathSN on Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from 1Earth Fund and the Prentice Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full  editorial control of the work.

This article originally appeared on Wilmington StarNews: Another winter another drought for NC as rains dry up