Why Erie County childhood vaccine rates have dropped, and what concerns doctors most about it

David Bruce, Erie Times-News
Updated ·4 min read

Erie County's childhood immunization rates have declined since before the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially exposing children to disease like the recent measles outbreak in Philadelphia.

Pennsylvania Department of Health data shows that the county's immunization rates have fallen 1-3 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2022-23 for nearly every childhood vaccine. Rates for the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine have dropped near or below 95% — the threshold for herd immunity against measles, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.

"The fact is that the more people out there who don't get vaccinated, the more we can get these diseases that once were eliminated," said Dr. Nadia Asif, a Saint Vincent Hospital pediatrician.

No measles cases have been reported in Erie County for at least 33 years, but doctors and health officials are concerned the lower immunization rates could result in a local outbreak. Twenty-three measles cases have been reported in the United States since Dec. 1.

Erie County Department of Health officials were not available for this story, but they did say in an earlier interview that the department is putting together a team to handle any future outbreaks.

"It's also important to work with the local health systems because that is where we will learn if there is anything unusual happening in that regard," Erin Mrenak, county Health Department director, said in an earlier interview.

Erie County's immunization rates have decreased in recent years, though they remain higher, in most cases, than they were a decade ago. Theories for the decline include the politicization of COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic, government mistrust and the amount of vaccine misinformation spread online.

More: COVID-19, RSV and flu cases all decline in Erie County. Is this mini-surge finished?

How much have immunization rates declined in Erie County?

Here is a comparison of some of the 2018-19 and 2022-23 school year immunization rates for Erie County students:

  • Measles-Mumps-Rubella — (2018-19) 96.7% for kindergarteners, 98.7% for seventh-graders, 98.5% for 12th-graders; (2022-23) 94.6% for kindergarteners, 97.1% for seventh-graders, 96.9% for 12th-graders.

  • Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (main series) — (2018-19) 96.9% for kindergarteners, 98.9% for seventh-graders, 98.6% for 12th-graders; (2022-23) 94.2% for kindergarteners, 97% for seventh-graders, 97.3% for 12th-graders.

  • Polio — (2018-19) 96.9% for kindergarteners, 98.6% for seventh-graders, 98.5% for 12th-graders; (2022-23) 94.6% for kindergarteners, 97% for seventh-graders, 96.4% for 12th-graders.

  • Varicella — (2018-19) 96.4% for kindergarteners, 98.2% for seventh-graders, 94.8% for 12th-graders; (2022-23) 94.2% for kindergarteners, 96.7% for seventh-graders, 95.7% for 12th-graders.

  • Tetanus-Diphtheria-Pertussis (booster) — (2018-19) 97.7% for seventh-graders, 98.3% for 12th-graders; (2022-23) 93.2% for seventh-graders, 96.9% for 12th-graders.

New PHC4 report: What Erie County did right during COVID-19 pandemic

As immunization rates drop, exemptions increase

As vaccine rates decline, the percentage of county students excluded from vaccines due to religious, medical and philosophical reasons rose, the state Health Department reported. Here is a look at the rates:

  • Religious exemptions — (2018-19) 1.1% for kindergarteners, 1.1% for seventh-graders, 1.1% for 12th-graders; (2022-23) 2.9% for kindergarteners, 3.1% for seventh-graders, 1.8% for 12th-graders.

  • Medical exemptions — (2018-19) 0.3% for kindergarteners, 0.3% for seventh-graders, 0.8% for 12th-graders; (2022-23) 0.4% for kindergarteners, 0.7% for seventh-graders, 0.8% for 12th-graders.

  • Philosophical exemptions — (2018-19) 1.8% for kindergarteners, 1.2% for seventh-graders, 1.1% for 12th-graders; (2022-23) 1.3% for kindergarteners, 2% for seventh-graders, 1.7% for 12th-graders.

Not all physicians have seen a decreased demand for childhood vaccines among their patients.

"I have parents who strictly follow the CDC immunization guidelines," said Dr. Micalyn Baney, a family medicine physician with LECOM Health's Waterford Family Practice. "We also have a small group of patients who are anti-vax. Some physicians will discharge those patients, but I will not. I want those children to get their routine screenings."

Baney said she will mention immunizations at these subsequent screenings, especially if the family plans to travel.

When Asif sees patients at the Saint Vincent Family Medicine Center, she will work with parents who have concerns about their children getting multiple vaccines during a single office visit.

"There is no proof that getting multiple vaccines at once is a problem, but if having the patient come back in a couple of weeks gets more children vaccinated, then it's a good thing," Asif said.

Immunizations protect those who can't get vaccine

Keeping immunization rates high also protects the children who can't get certain vaccines due to severe allergies or weakened immune systems.

"These are some scary diseases," Baney said. "Chicken pox (varicella) can be fatal for pregnant women and their unborn child, and parents are often afraid of their child getting tetanus because there isn't a good treatment for it."

Parents can schedule immunization appointments with their child's physician or contact the county Health Department, which runs an immunization clinic. For more information, call 814-451-6777.

Contact David Bruce at dbruce@timesnews.com. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @ETNBruce.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Childhood vaccination rates: Erie County sees decline in immunizations