Why the Film Industry Is Bracing for October’s Box Office to Be Down From 2021

Jeremy Fuster
·4 min read
8

With one month down in the fall box office season, the worst of the expected theatrical drought is now behind us. But while this month should mark an improvement over last month — the worst September at the box office in 25 years — the film industry is still bracing for a 20% to 30% dip in October ticket sales compared to last year.

In fact, multiple distribution chiefs are projecting a cumulative gross around $435-$500 million, which would be the lowest October total since 2001 (excluding the pandemic shutdown in 2020).

And it’s a far cry from last October, when a trio of hits — Sony’s “Venom: Let There Be Carnage,” MGM’s “No Time to Die” and Warner Bros.’ “Dune” — led the domestic box office to an October monthly total of $623.8 million. While that was 20% down from the $781.6 million seen in that month in 2019, when “Joker” began its run to $1 billion worldwide, it was 11% above the $559.6 million total recorded in October 2017, when the highest grossing film was the financially disappointing “Blade Runner 2049.”

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Warner Bros.’ next DC film, “Black Adam,” has the potential to perform like “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” with early tracking predicting a $70 million-plus opening. Like “Venom,” audience reception will matter far more than critics for this Dwayne Johnson blockbuster. And if that audience buzz is strong, a $200 million-plus domestic run is possible.

But the drop from “Black Adam” to the film likely to be the second-highest grossing film this month, Universal’s “Halloween Ends,” is likely to be steep. With a day-and-date release on Peacock for Jamie Lee Curtis’ final film in the “Halloween” franchise, box office grosses are likely to be significantly curtailed.

If word-of-mouth is stronger for “Halloween Ends” than for the critically panned “Halloween Kills,” which also was released day-and-date, it could exceed that film’s $49 million opening and $92 million domestic cume. But otherwise, both Universal and theaters are expecting hardcore fans to drive most of the film’s theatrical revenue while those with more casual interest will seek the film out on Peacock, which is trying to keep up against other studio streaming services like Paramount+ and HBO Max.

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A large factor in whether October totals will hit the upper or lower end of that $435-$500 million range will play out this weekend with Sony’s “Lyle Lyle Crocodile.” The adaptation of the classic children’s book will be the only family film on offer until Disney’s “Strange World” comes out on Thanksgiving, so theaters will be counting on it to draw out that audience subset. Expectations for “Lyle” are quite low, with a projected $11-$14 million opening weekend, which would likely mean a domestic cume of $40-$50 million unless the film manages to catch on with its target audience.

In earnings calls, theater execs have expressed optimism that Q4 2022 would see a significant improvement in box office revenue over Q3, but that optimism was never rooted in the films coming out this month.

The hope is that a stacked November and December slate, led by Disney/Marvel’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and 20th Century’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” will provide stronger holiday season numbers than 2021. Last year, ongoing concerns over COVID-19 caused Oscar hopeful films to struggle as older audiences stayed home. Meanwhile, Disney’s “Encanto” performed tepidly in theaters before getting strong streaming viewership upon its Disney+ Christmas release.

Instead, it was up to “Spider-Man: No Way Home” to deadlift the box office with a $760 million domestic/$1.9 billion global box office run. Neither “Black Panther 2” nor “Avatar 2” is likely to exceed that total, but with public confidence in moviegoing still high despite warnings of more potential COVID variants coming this winter, there’s hope that those two films will not only perform well themselves but also attract interest to smaller titles like “Strange World,” “The Fabelmans,” and “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.”

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