Why former Tennessee Vols star Todd Helton will – or won’t – get into Baseball Hall of Fame

Todd Helton, a Knoxville native and former Tennessee Vols star, hopes to hear the call from the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Inductees will be announced at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday on MLB Network and MLB.com.

Fred McGriff already has been elected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee. Helton has as a good of a chance as any to join him in the 2023 class.

Helton, a Knoxville Central graduate, was elected to the National College Baseball Hall of Fame in 2021. His No. 3 was permanently retired by Tennessee in 2008, and he also played quarterback for the Vols.

Here is Helton’s case for Cooperstown.

Resume with Rockies is (mostly) strong

Helton played 17 years for the Colorado Rockies, retiring in 2013 with a .316 batting average and 369 home runs. He was a five-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger, three-time Gold Glove winner, the 2000 batting champion and a multi-year MVP candidate.

But Helton’s postseason resume is short and unimpressive. He hit only .211 with no home runs in 57 at-bats in the Rockies’ two postseason trips.

So far, his chances are pretty good

A candidate must appear on at least 75% of ballots for induction. Helton has steadily climbed from 16.5% in 2019, 29.2% in 2020, 44.9% in 2021 and 52.0% in 2022.

It suggests that Helton hasn’t peaked yet. And the early returns are good.

Almost half of this year’s voters have made their ballots public already, and Helton is on 79.3% of them, according to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker.

Third baseman Scott Rolen (79.3%), pitcher Billy Wagner (73.2%), centerfielder Andruw Jones (67.6%) and slugger Gary Sheffield (63.7%) round out the top five so far.

Stat nerds of all eras like Helton

Baseball records were hallowed, and then the steroid era wrecked that. Then came analytics, which redefined stats for elite players, at least in the eyes of some voters.

Helton hits the mark for both groups.

Traditionally, Helton had a career batting average above .300, on-base percentage above .400 and slugging percentage above .500. He also had more than 2,500 hits, 1,400 runs, 1,400 RBI and 300 home runs. Helton is among 10 players to reach all seven marks. Only he and Manny Ramirez aren’t in the Hall of Fame.

Considering the new school of stats, Helton has a career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 61.8.

That’s a solid No. 170 in MLB history, according to Baseball-Reference.com. He sits just behind “Shoeless” Joe Jackson and Mark McGwire – among the best players not in the Hall of Fame, albeit due to alleged game-fixing and steroid scandals, respectively.

Helton appears above fray in steroid era

Helton played in the steroid era. That association hurts some Hall of Fame candidates. But it helps others who are perceived as clean players from that period (see Ken Griffey Jr.).

Helton, who was never directly linked to PEDs, appears to be drifting toward the favorable category. And that’s evident on this ballot, where he’s gotten more support than Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield and Andy Pettitte.

Sheffield and Pettitte were listed in the Mitchell report, the investigation into PED use in baseball that was published in 2007. Ramirez was suspended twice for testing positive for PEDs. Rodriguez admitted to PED use, and he was suspended for the 2014 season.

But did Coors Field juice Helton’s career?

Helton played his entire career in Denver, where the thin air made Coors Field a launching pad for hitters.

That created a roadblock to Rockies entering the Hall of Fame until Larry Walker was elected in 2020. Walker played most of his career, and certainly the best part, with the Rockies.

Helton is the best Rockies player of all time, holding franchise records in games played (2,247), hits (2,519), runs (1,401), home runs (369) and RBI (1,406).

But home-field advantage is still the biggest argument against Helton.

His 1.048 home OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging) is the sixth-best in MLB history among players who appeared in at least 1,000 games. His .855 road OPS was still pretty good, but the discrepancy fuels opposition to Helton’s candidacy.

Still, the case for Helton’s election to the Hall of Fame has never been stronger.

Reach Adam Sparks at adam.sparks@knoxnews.com and on Twitter @AdamSparks.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Why Todd Helton will – or won’t – get into Baseball Hall of Fame