Why GOP Senate nominees may need to say ‘thanks’ to Republican governors

If Senate Republicans win back the majority in two weeks, they might have to write a thank you note to a certain group: GOP governors.

With the hourglass winding down on the 2022 midterm cycle, Republicans are looking to governors or gubernatorial nominees in a number of key states to push their Senate candidates to victory — or at least give them a better chance of pulling off an upset.

“There’s a lot of Senate candidates who have run lackluster campaigns, but because of the environment or someone else on the top of the ticket, they’ll make it over the finish line,” one GOP operative involved in midterm races told The Hill.

As the old adage has it, a rising tide lifts all boats, and in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and other battlegrounds, incumbent Republican governors or those seeking a first term are polling well ahead of their Senate counterparts.

In Georgia, Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker remains deadlocked with Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), but Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is gliding to what will likely be a comfortable victory over Democrat Stacey Abrams.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics average of surveys, Kemp leads his two-time Democratic challenger by 8 percentage points — a major uptick from their 2018 battle when Kemp won by just north of 1 percentage point.

It’s simple: the more Kemp wins by — the more his presence on the ticket drives Republicans to the polls — the better Walker’s chances are to emerge victorious.

“Walker owes Kemp everything,” a GOP strategist involved in Senate contests said, pointing to the sprawling apparatus Kemp put into place across the state after the Georgia runoffs in January 2021 that cost the party the Senate majority.

“Walker’s about to be the big beneficiary of that,” the strategist continued. “As long as Kemp can turn out voters at the level his campaign claims, Walker will finish this race on top.”

Kemp’s ability to turn people out in November could be particularly crucial for Walker, the famed University of Georgia running back. If neither Walker nor Warnock clear the 50 percent threshold to sidestep a runoff, they will square off again on Dec. 6, this time without Kemp on the ballot.

“That’s a whole new ballgame,” the strategist involved in Senate contests continued, pointing to what the stakes are for that potential race.

Will Kiley, a spokesperson for Walker, told The Hill that the Georgia GOP ticket was united.

“Democrats like Raphael Warnock and Stacey Abrams have failed this country, given us sky-high inflation, and empty grocery stores. Herschel has a great relationship with the Governor and the entire ticket is united and going to win,” he said.

The Hill reached out to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) for comment.

The Senate majority could be decided in November. If either party wins both Nevada and Pennsylvania, for example, it would control the upper chamber, making a Walker or Warnock win in December the cherry on the proverbial sundae. If not, the Georgia race could instead be the lynchpin.

Similarly, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) holds a lead that nears 20 percentage points over Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D), giving a helping hand to J.D. Vance in the “Hillbilly Elegy” author’s bid to defeat Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and keep the state’s Senate seat in Republican hands.

While Vance remains the favorite, some polling shows a close race, and DeWine’s crossover appeal to moderates and some Democrats means Vance and other congressional candidates will receive a lift from some voters that normally might not side with him.

“He’s very strong with a bunch of squishy Republicans and a bunch of Democrats, and that’s especially helpful, and oddly helpful, to all Republicans across the ballot,” a second GOP operative involved in Senate races told The Hill. “It’s oddly helpful that a bunch of MAGA Republicans hate the governor, but that’s not a problem for J.D. Vance and other candidates running.”

“You get the best of both worlds,” the operative added.

Vance currently holds a 2-percentage point polling advantage over Ryan.

In other states, GOP gubernatorial candidates likely have less of a chance at pushing Senate nominees over the finish line but are nonetheless providing them a lift — and perhaps some hope.

New Hampshire is known for crossover voting, but the presence of Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who ironically skipped out on a Senate run of his own, could give Republican Senate nominee Don Bolduc a boost in his quest to unseat Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Still, Bolduc, who was backed by former President Trump, is polling behind Hassan by double-digits and both the NRSC and an outside group associated with Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have pulled resources from the race.

Similarly, Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D) campaign remains the prohibitive favorite over Republican Blake Masters in Arizona, but the presence of Kari Lake, the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate, has given Masters a small glimmer of hope at springing the upset.

“One of the challenges facing the GOP Senate map over the cycle has been candidate quality and the ability for some of these candidates to win in red or purple states,” said Colin Reed, a GOP strategist. “Things are closing really fast, really hard at the wrong time for Democrats.”

Not all gubernatorial campaigns are turning out to be helpful to the GOP, however. In the Keystone State, state Sen. Doug Mastriano’s (R) sagging campaign against state Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) is providing the opposite effect.

Republican Mehmet Oz is running neck and neck against state Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R). But according to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Shapiro leads Mastriano by 9 percentage points, creating a mountain for Oz to overcome in a race that is considered crucial to the GOP’s hopes of retaking the majority.

“What campaign? … They’re not running a non-traditional campaign. They’re not running a campaign,” one Pennsylvania-based GOP operative told The Hill recently about Mastriano. “There’s clearly going to be ticket splitting, and that should benefit Oz.”

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