Why Joe Biden and rich Democrats should go big in Ohio: If they win it, Trump is history

Michael Bloomberg is vowing to spend up to $100 million to help Joe Biden win Florida. That's about one-tenth of what he promised to defeat President Donald Trump and just a tiny sliver of the billions that have fallen into the laps of billionaires since the COVID-19 crisis began. If any of our other benevolent oligarchs feel like saving democracy, here's their best bet: Go all in on Ohio.

This election, obviously, is not normal in many ways. One of the main reasons is that the president of the United States has told us in advance that he will not accept defeat. He has said before cameras that “the only way we're going to lose this election is if the election is rigged.” And Roger Stone, Trump’s longtime political adviser who should be in prison but thanks to Trump is not, is calling on the president to go total totalitarian on this election — from seizing ballots to martial law.

Trump has never accepted losing anything, including his hair. He made up ratings for "The Apprentice" and has done the same on his presidential performance. He made up new metrics so he could claim he “won” the ratings war he created between the Democratic and Republican national convention. We can assume he won't exit the White House quietly.

Slow vote count helps Trump

Whether Trump has a good case or not, expect him to contest any loss through the middle of December, knowing there may be a second chance to swipe the election, thanks to the 1887 Electoral Count Act. “By the simplest reading of the act, whoever is ahead on December 14 gets the electors and, with them, the presidency,” Edward-Isaac Dovere wrote in The Atlantic. “Many analysts believe that President Donald Trump will appear to be ahead during the early vote-counting — a fact that creates an incentive for him to slow the counting as much as possible.”

Which brings us to Ohio. Almost.

Some Democrats argue convincingly that this December deadline means the party should focus on winning Florida, because its results are counted and revealed on Election Night. Take Florida and take the election.

But no Democrat alive should ever count on the Sunshine State for anything as important as this election. And not just because of the stolen 2000 election and the ominously questionable 2018 election. Florida is a genuinely odd political environment populated by retired QAnoners and Cuban-Americans who don’t seem to despise Trump the way many other Latinos do.

With polls suggesting that Biden could compete in states that even his former running mate Barack Obama didn’t contest in 2008 and 2012 — like Georgia and even ¡Texas! — the suddenly very rich Biden campaign and its supporters can easily find places to dump tens of millions of dollars quickly. These red states are trending blue and demand attention, especially for down-ballot races that will help decide electoral maps for the next decade, but Democrats haven’t come close to winning their Electoral College votes in decades.

Betting big on these uppercuts could result in a grand-slam victory or, just as easily, in a series of whiffs that leads to 2016-like loss or the sort of razor-thin Biden victory Trump seems to be planning to contest.

Trump economic debacle: Biden's central message must be his plan for American recovery

There are a number of reasons why it makes sense to funnel a big chunk of Biden's record August haul of $364 million to Ohio, as David Pepper, chair of the Ohio Democratic Party, explained to me. Like Florida, Ohio has a month of early voting, which a national strategy many Democrats are promoting given the assault on the mail. Everyone in the state can vote by absentee — which is the good type of mailed ballot, according to Trump. And the state’s Republican secretary of state has defended the use of absentee ballots.

Ohio’s count historically also comes in quickly on election night. The early vote (except for votes still in the mail) may be processed and counted before Election Day and the results announced soon after the polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

So why are so many eyeing Florida and ignoring Ohio, which has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1964?

Democrats should not write off Ohio

Trump’s convincing 2016 victory in Ohio took the state off the radar for many Democrats, including one of the party’s most prominent Super PACs. Despite big Trump spending and almost no spending by national Democrats through the summer, the state is basically tied.

That mirrors 2018, when, driven by a surge of Democratic support in the large and previously red suburbs, Sen. Sherrod Brown won by more than he did in 2012. Democrats broke a GOP lock on the Supreme Court by electing two justices, and the vote breakdown for the statehouse was nearly tied. Yes, household name Gov. Mike DeWine won in a late surprise thanks in part to Gov. John Kasich’s last-minute help. But now Kasich is endorsing … Joe Biden.

On the table: Ohio is still a battleground and that's bad news for Trump

Pepper also notes that Biden’s “Scranton strategy” focused on his roots and the manufacturing economy is perfect for Ohio, which struggled through Trump’s trade war, saw its worst year for job growth last year since the Great Recession, and would be immune to Trump’s claims that everything was “great” before the virus.

Here’s the crucial thing. By trying to win Ohio, you’re also trying to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the states it shares the Great Lakes with, better known as the states that decided 2016 and will likely decide 2020. All four states require Democrats to win big in the cities and cut Trump’s margins in the rural areas. They all require the same message.

No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. No matter what thievery and denial Trump can come up with, if he can’t claim the Buckeye State on election night, he won’t be the first.

Jason Sattler, a writer based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, is a member of USA TODAY’s Board of Contributors and host of "The GOTMFV Show" podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @LOLGOP

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Biden win in Ohio would prevent risky election night Trump victory lap