Why Josh Heupel wouldn't — or would — leave Tennessee football for Oklahoma

Oklahoma football has a coaching vacancy, but is Josh Heupel interested?

After a good debut season at Tennessee, Heupel could be a worthy candidate for the Oklahoma head coaching job now that Lincoln Riley has bolted for Southern Cal.

Lane Kiffin left UT for USC almost 12 years, and the Trojans are giving UT fans heartburn once again.

Heupel isn’t Kiffin, but Oklahoma is his alma mater. He was the Heisman Trophy runner-up and won the 2000 national title as the Sooners quarterback.

So would he really consider leaving? Here are the arguments for and against it.

BUYOUT: Josh Heupel's buyout if he left Tennessee compared to Lane Kiffin in 2010 is stunning

ADAMS: Josh Heupel got the most from Vols talent. That's a change.

TOPPMEYER: Who's left for LSU to hire now that Lincoln Riley is off the board?

Why Josh Heupel would not leave Tennessee

He’s only been with Vols one season

Again, Heupel isn’t Kiffin. Even in an era when coaches jump from job to job frequently, most wouldn’t do it after one season at a comparable Power Five program. That’s why Kiffin’s exit was so shocking.

Heupel could go to Oklahoma, win long-term and not look for another job for several years. But there’s as much of a chance that he’d struggle in the shadow of Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley and be back on the coaching market in a few years. If so, he’d have the stain of leaving a premier Power Five job after only one season.

Also, UT athletics director Danny White brought him from Central Florida to Knoxville. Their relationship has spanned two schools, a bond that would be hard to replicate at Oklahoma.

Don't forget Oklahoma fired Heupel

Maybe time heals wounds. But being fired by your alma mater isn’t a memory that fades easily.

Despite coaching quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Jason White to Heisman Trophy wins, Heupel was fired by Stoops as Oklahoma offensive coordinator following the 2014 season.

Even worse, Heupel was canned and Stoops’ younger brother, Mike, was retained as defensive coordinator. Heupel’s offense was ranked 20th nationally in scoring in 2014, while Stoops' unit was ranked 55th in scoring defense.

And still worse, Heupel’s replacement, Riley, was elevated to head coach in 2017. Returning to Oklahoma could be awkward for Heupel, especially since Bob Stoops is serving as interim coach.

Sooners will have to win in the SEC soon

One of the best selling points to coaching at schools like Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, Notre Dame and USC is that you can get into the College Football Playoff without going through an SEC gauntlet.

OUTLOOK: Does Josh Heupel's progress have staying power? Vols believe it can last

That will soon change for Oklahoma and Texas when they join the SEC no later than 2025, and probably sooner. Oklahoma will still be a premier job, but some of its allure may go away with SEC heavyweights lining the conference schedule.

Heupel was praised for going 7-5 at UT with an SEC schedule this season. He’d be roasted in Norman with that record. Riley knew that, which undoubtedly influenced his preemptive move to a premier program in the more manageable Pac-12.

Heupel would carry weight of $8 million buyout

If Heupel left, he would owe UT a buyout of $8 million. Interestingly, Kiffin only owed UT $800,000 when he left in 2010.

Heupel's $8 million buyout is huge. By comparison, Oklahoma gets $4.5 million from Riley's buyout, and Louisville got $4.375 million when Charlie Strong went to Texas in 2014. They had among the highest buyouts ever paid to public schools.

Oklahoma, presumably, would pay Heupel’s buyout. But that kind of investment would put additional pressure on Heupel to win immediately. After all, he’s not proven to be a Power Five national title-caliber coach yet, and Oklahoma wouldn’t be willing to wait for him to get there.

Why Josh Heupel would leave Tennessee

Forget the past, Oklahoma is home

Even if Heupel’s relationship with Stoops is chilly, that can be fixed. In his memoir, Stoops said firing Heupel was the worst day of his 18-year Oklahoma tenure and called him the most valuable player he ever coached.

Heupel is a native of Aberdeen, South Dakota. But he called Norman, Oklahoma, his home for 12 years from 1999 to 2014 — interrupted only by short stints playing in the NFL and coaching at Arizona.

Since then, his longest time living anywhere else was three years at UCF. And Heupel’s parents and sister still live in Oklahoma.

Oklahoma has a better chance at a national title

At UCF, Heupel followed Scott Frost’s 13-0 team that claimed a minor share of the 2017 national championship despite not getting into the College Football Playoff. Heupel’s 2018 team went 12-0 in the regular season but was left out again.

Could UT make the CFP if it’s at or near the top of the SEC? Sure.

But there’s still more evidence that Oklahoma would get there, even in the SEC. The Sooners have seven national titles, and they’ve been much closer than the Vols to winning it the past few years.

Despite progress in Heupel’s first season, UT is still in rebuilding mode relative to its rich history. Oklahoma is in its prime with five top-10 finishes and two Heisman Trophy winners in the past five seasons.

Reach Adam Sparks at adam.sparks@knoxnews.com and on Twitter @AdamSparks.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Why Josh Heupel wouldn't — or would — leave Tennessee for Oklahoma