Why Kansas and K-State are both among the best bets in college football for Week 3

I don’t mean to brag, but Best Bets is off to such a hot start that we suffered through the definition of a bad beat last weekend and are still sitting pretty with a 10-4 record against the spread through two weeks.

Anyone who took Texas Tech +7.5 knows what I’m talking about.

The Red Raiders led for much of the game and had an opportunity to drive downfield and win with a field goal in the final minute. They looked like a lock to cover. But Jeffrey Bassa returned an interception 45 yards for a touchdown that put Oregon ahead for good at 38-30. The smart play would have been for him to take a knee short of the end zone to preserve a 31-30 victory for the Ducks.

But no, he scored the touchdown, even though it meant giving Texas Tech another shot to win. It did give his team a cover, though.

Brutal.

Like I said, though, we went 5-1 in our other six games ... and Washington State (+200) came through as a money-line dog against Wisconsin. So it was a great week, even with that bad beat.

Now let’s look ahead and hopefully find some more winners.

Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.

Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 3:

Kansas (-27.5) at Nevada

It’s scary to think about laying this many points with the Jayhawks given how rarely they have beaten teams by four touchdowns over the past decade. But I am here to tell you this is one instance where it makes sense to bet on Kansas as a big favorite, even on the road.

Nevada is quite possibly the worst FBS team in college football. The Wolf Pack started off the season with a 66-14 loss at USC and then followed that up with a 33-6 home loss to Idaho. They have lost 12 straight games dating back to last September, with a pair of home defeats against FCS opponents highlighting their misery.

Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are off to a 2-0 start with a 48-17 win over Missouri State and a 34-23 win over Illinois. Kansas is absolutely 28 points better than Nevada. The only fear here is that the Jayhawks take a big lead, get bored and allow a backdoor cover. You could get around that by betting KU to score 45 or more points and go over its team total for points.

K-State (-4) at Missouri

At this time last week, you could find K-State favored by as little as one point over Missouri in some look-ahead lines. On Sunday, the number climbed to three. As the week went on, the Wildcats ballooned all the way up to -5.5.

Even though some value has been lost, I still like K-State in this situation. Missouri clearly looked past Middle Tennessee to this game, as Eli Drinkwitz and his team want to avenge last year’s 40-12 loss at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. I expect the Tigers to play their best in front of a sellout crowd on Saturday. But the Wildcats have also been looking forward to this game. They don’t like the Tigers and they don’t care who knows it. Motivation shouldn’t be a factor.

Bottom line: K-State is the better team. It has eclipsed 40 points in each of its games and is also playing strong on defense. Outside of Luther Burden, Missouri has done little to impress through two games. I would feel comfortable recommending the Cats up to -7.

Best Bets

Last Week: 5-2

Season Record: 10-4

South Carolina (+27.5) at Georgia: The Bulldogs have more or less sleepwalked their way to big victories over Tennessee-Martin (48-7) and Ball State (45-3). Well, now they have a reason to play with some intensity against South Carolina in their SEC opener. Georgia tends to annihilate teams when it cares, as evidenced by the way it beat South Carolina 48-7 on the road in its first SEC game last year. Pick: Georgia.

Northern Illinois at Nebraska O/U 45.5: These two offenses stink. Nebraska has scored a grand total of 24 points this season, and Northern Illinois has only scored 38. If those averages persist, we’re looking at just 31 combined points on Saturday. Pick: Under.

Iowa State (-3.5) at Ohio: There are only a handful of teams that the Cyclones should be favored against on the road. Ohio isn’t one of them. The Bobcats were in position to upset San Diego State in their opening game before quarterback Kurtis Rourke suffered an injury. Then they beat Florida Atlantic on the road with him back in the lineup. Ohio could easily beat Iowa State as the Cyclones try to bounce back from an emotional loss to Iowa. Pick: Ohio.

South Alabama (+7) at Oklahoma State: I think South Alabama is overrated. Sure, it won 10 games last season, but it lost all the biggest games on its schedule — at UCLA, Troy, Western Kentucky. A similar trend is unfolding this season, as it lost 37-17 at Tulane. The Jaguars are also dealing with some key injuries this week. Oklahoma State should be able to build off its victory at Arizona State and win this game by double digits at home. Pick: Oklahoma State.

Alabama (-31.5) at South Florida: Something tells me the Crimson Tide will cover this number against a completely overmatched team one week after they lost to Texas at home. Pick: Alabama.

Kansas (-27.5) at Nevada: The Jayhawks are good. The Wolf Pack are really bad. Don’t be surprised if Kansas is able to run up the score. Pick: Kansas.

K-State (-4) at Missouri: If you’re really confident in the Wildcats, you can get them at -13.5 with escalated odds of +255. Pick: K-State.

Upset Pick of the Week

Florida International (+260) at Connecticut: Backing the Huskies to cover against Georgia State was my worst bet of the season. Georgia State rolled to a 35-14 victory. Sorry about that. Connecticut hasn’t looked good at all through two games. Now its starting quarterback, Joe Fagnano, is out for the season with an injury. I’m going to take a stab here on FIU, which just beat North Texas 46-39 and played Louisiana Tech close on the road in its opener.

Other lines worth considering

Liberty (-3.5) at Buffalo: The Flames are off to a 2-0 start against the spread and now get to play a Buffalo team that is coming off a loss to Fordham. Lean: Liberty.

UTEP (+17.5) at Arizona: I regret not taking the Wildcats at -16.5 when I had the chance. But it might not matter. UTEP could be cooked after the way it lost 38-7 at Northwestern last week. Lean: Arizona.

Fresno State (-3) at Arizona State: The Bulldogs already beat Purdue on the road. I think they can also knock off Arizona State. Lean: Fresno State.

Miami of Ohio (+14) at Cincinnati: The Bearcats have looked much better than expected in their first two games. It might be time to back them. Lean: Cincinnati.

Navy (+14) at Memphis: The Tigers beat Navy 37-13 last season and crushed Navy 35-17 two seasons ago. They know how to defend the triple option. Lean: Memphis.