Why Karabakh conflict erupted once again – NV analysis

Despite the latest statements by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan about the possibility of signing a peace treaty before the end of this year, Azerbaijani forces launched strikes on targets in Karabakh on Sept. 19. NV explores how the region has been living recently and what preceded the latest violent outbreak in the decades-long conflict.

After months of blockade and amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Baku announced the start of “anti-terrorist measures” in Karabakh. This is what everything was heading towards, Azeri political commentator Shahin Rzayev explained regretfully to NV.

“This is pressure on Armenia to fulfill its obligations,” he says. In particular, it was required to disarm military formations in Karabakh and open a road through its territory to the Azerbaijani exclave of the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.

According to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, the goal of the military operation is to disarm pro-Armenian forces, neutralize their infrastructure, and ensure peace and Azerbaijani sovereignty in Karabakh, which has been controlled by pro-Armenian authorities for the past three decades.

Read also: Azerbaijan to begin gas supplies to Hungary by year’s end

All this time, the conflict between neighboring states smoldered and periodically flared up – from skirmishes on the border to a four-day war of 2016 and the second Karabakh war of 2020. The situation has recently worsened. As reported by the UK newspaper The Telegraph, citing information from the Center for Information Resilience (CIR), Azerbaijani armed forces increased their military capabilities near Armenia in early September. Moreover, Azerbaijani military equipment began bearing V and Z symbols, which are used by the Russian army in Ukraine, CIR researchers noted.

After the start of the Azerbaijani military operation, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan stated that his country was not involved in the hostilities and would not take “any rash” steps. Meanwhile, Russia, which has “peacekeeping forces” in Karabakh, stated that it was “deeply alarmed” by the escalation.

“The tacit consent of the Russian contingent and the Russian Foreign Ministry was unexpected for me,” admits Rzayev. “I suspect that [everything] was agreed in advance.”

History lessons

Karabakh is an internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, the vast majority of the population of which are ethnic Armenians. In the early 1990s, members of the Armenian community proclaimed an independent republic in this territory, which was not recognized by any country in the world, not even Armenia. In April 2023, Yerevan agreed to affirm Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh, after which representatives of Baku expressed hope for establishing peace between the two states.

However, now Karabakh Armenians fear ethnic cleansing and attempts by Azerbaijan to expel them from their own homes. Baku is really not ready to provide any security guarantees to the Karabakh Armenians, Rzayev explains, even though he admits that they are necessary.

“I really want the Karabakh Armenians to become the same citizens as the Karabakh Azerbaijanis, like Baku Azerbaijanis,” Rzayev says. “They should have the same rights and the same responsibilities: pay taxes, serve in the army.” Sure, not immediately, but after 10-15 years of a transition period, he adds, citing historical examples of the use of such practices in Northern Ireland and the Balkans.

Read also: Breaking: Ceasefire announced in Nagorno-Karabakh

Karabakh Armenians themselves, recalling the previous steps by Azerbaijan, do not expect loyalty from it. Baku has already applied pressure in the past: in addition to blocking the Lachin corridor – the only route through which the Armenian population can enter and leave Karabakh – the Azeris have periodically cut off gas and electricity supplies to Karabakh residents in order to establish control over the region, recalls Richard Giragosyan, director of the Center for Regional Studies in Yerevan.

“The final step in Azerbaijan’s strategy to drive the Armenian population out of the region was the use of siege warfare,” says the Armenian analyst, “and this strategy was largely successful due to both the growing strength of Azerbaijan and the growing weakness or complicity of Russia.”

Without fruit, salt, and fuel

Since the beginning of the year, Karabakh, with its population of 140,000, has been suffering from a humanitarian crisis due to Azerbaijan blocking the Lachin road. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, the only non-governmental organization allowed to deliver aid along this route, Baku stopped allowing humanitarian supplies into Karabakh in mid-June. Since then, local supplies of food, medicine, water and fuel have only dwindled.

Less than two weeks ago, on Sept. 8-9, the parties agreed on the simultaneous opening of two routes to Karabakh: through the Azerbaijani Agdam and through the Lachin road from Armenia. Thanks to this, on the morning of Sept. 18, the first trucks with humanitarian aid drove to Stepanakert along both roads. As reported by Armenian media, 23 tons of flour from Armenia and medical and hygiene products from Azerbaijan were delivered to Karabakh’s largest city.

Read also: Armenian PM claims his country not Russia’s ally in war against Ukraine, Kremlin reacts

Before this, Karabakh’s self-proclaimed  authorities stated that dairy products, cereals, fish, chicken, vegetable oil, sugar, salt, fruits and vegetables, as well as fuel and hygiene products were not available in the region. The situation in the region “has grown from a humanitarian crisis into a humanitarian catastrophe,” Giragosyan argues.

“The Armenian population of Karabakh is forced to endure serious shortages of basic food products, essential medicines, and other essential goods,” he says.

As local residents told foreign journalists, the months-long blocking of the Lachin road caused a fuel shortage, which in turn led to a halt to public transport, daily eight-hour power outages, a stop in water treatment and, as a result, a surge in disease. There have been dangerous problems with local emergency services such as fire and police, Giragossian adds. Garbage collection is also halted.

However, the Azerbaijani side has always rejected accusations of blockading the region. Rzayev calls what happened in Karabakh not a humanitarian crisis, but a political crisis. He recalls the refusal of local separatist authorities to accept humanitarian aid from the Azerbaijani Red Crescent Society and suggests that it aims to renew its demands for annexation to Armenia.

“And this contradicts international principles of territorial integrity,” Rzayev argues.

Moscow’s Hand

Yerevan’s dependence on Russia for security turned out to be a “strategic mistake,” Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan admitted in early September.

Read also: In a betrayal of longstanding ally Armenia, Russia recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan’s

“The security architecture of Armenia was 99.999% linked to Russia, in particular when it came to the purchase of weapons and ammunition. But today we see that Russia itself needs weapons and ammunition [for its war against Ukraine], and in this situation it is clear that Russia will not be able to ensure the security of Armenia, even if it wanted to,” he said.

Recall that after the brief war in the fall of 2020, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed an agreement to cease hostilities through Russian mediation. At that time, Baku brought under its control part of the territories of Karabakh and adjacent regions of Azerbaijan which had been occupied by Armenian troops in the early 1990s, and Russian “peacekeeping forces” were stationed in the region. But Pashinyan recently stated that they had failed in their mission.

Russia is bogged down by its failed invasion of Ukraine, and it is now clear that Karabakh and Armenia should not count on Moscow or the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to fulfill their security obligations, Giragosyan states.

Russia is on Azerbaijan’s side, and has been since the failure of the 2003 negotiations, Rzayev emphasizes. “Now, unfortunately, Russia’s influence in Azerbaijan is much greater than in Armenia, and Azerbaijan is taking advantage of this,” he says. “I am 90% convinced that after 2025, when the [basing] of Russian peacekeeping forces [in Karabakh] expires, Azerbaijan will extend it – why not, if the interests of Aliyev, Putin, and Erdogan align.”

Peace until the end of the year?

Meanwhile, bilateral diplomatic negotiations continue between Armenia and Azerbaijan, focusing on a draft Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty. According to a recent statement by Pashinyan, it could be signed before the end of this year.

It is important that the parties agree on the delimitation of borders, Rzayev emphasizes. Indeed, due to the lack of an agreement on establishing state borders between the two neighboring states, Azerbaijan still controls some territories that belonged to Armenia in Soviet times and vice versa.

However, signing agreements between Yerevan and Baku may not be enough to ensure peace in the region. After all, any agreement will be limited to bilateral interstate relations, Giragosyan notes. It will have no real impact on the status of Karabakh and will not contain a “binding security element” for the region.

Read also: Azerbaijan to claim Nagorno-Karabakh after Armenia withdraws all troops in ceasefire agreement

At the same time, Giragosyan believes that Baku has a domestic political agenda that encourages escalation. “The Aliyev father-son dynasty has ruled the country for more than a quarter of a century,” he notes, “and to distract from the lack of democracy and entrenched family corruption, the Azerbaijani leadership needs an enemy.”

That is why, after the conclusion of the agreement, the West must do a great deal of work to ensure a strong and lasting peace, Giragosyan insists.

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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine