Why Middle Tennessee State women's basketball can - and can't - reach March Madness' Sweet 16
Middle Tennessee State women's basketball is a No. 11 seed and begins March Madness on Saturday in Durham, North Carolina, against No. 6 seed Colorado.
The Lady Raiders (28-4) captured both the Conference USA regular season and tournament title en route to the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
How far can the Lady Raiders go? We give reasons why MTSU can and can't reach the Sweet 16, including a prediction on how far it will advance:
MORE:MTSU women's basketball, an 11-seed in NCAA Tournament, will face Colorado in March Madness
Why MTSU will reach the Sweet 16
Lady Raiders are balanced all-around
MTSU is not a one- or two-player team, and the Lady Raiders have gotten big performances from different players all season.
For example, junior guard Savannah Wheeler, who led the team in scoring entering the Conference USA Tournament, was held to 12 total points on a combined 1-of-17 shooting combined in the semifinals and finals, but MTSU combined for 150 points in those two games.
MTSU has four players averaging in double figures in scoring, led by senior forward Kseniya Malashka (15.2) and Wheeler (15.1).
The Lady Raiders are also capable of adapting their offense, whether it be pounding the ball into the post to 6-foot-6 center Anastasiia Boldyreva or 6-foot Malashka, or getting hot from 3-point range (hitting 11 3-pointers in the C-USA finals).
MORE:March Madness: What to know about Middle Tennessee State women's basketball
MTSU is one of nation's best defensive teams
MTSU is one of the nation's top defensive teams, allowing an average of 57 points a game. The Lady Raiders held a then-ranked Louisville team to just 49 points earlier in the season. The Cardinals are a No. 5 seed.
The Lady Raiders are forcing 18 turnovers a contest and averaging 37 rebounds a game. They're aggressive, quick and have gritty intangibles on the defensive end.
That type of defensive effort will go a long way in pulling off first- and second-round upsets in March Madness. Colorado (23-9) averages just 68 points a game and potential second-round foe Duke (25-7) averages just 63.1 per contest and its top player averages just 11.5 points a game.
Why MTSU won't reach the Sweet 16
Lady Raider offense will face one of nation's top defenses
While defense is a reason MTSU could reach the Sweet 16, the Lady Raiders would have to face the nation's second-best scoring defense in No. 3 seed Duke in order to pull that off.
The Blue Devils are allowing just 50.8 points a game and opponents are shooting just 34% from the floor, which will make it difficult for MTSU to get into an offensive flow. Duke is allowing just 18 field goals a game, just 4.4 a game from 3-point range.
Colorado is allowing just 58 points a game.
Road disadvantage will be a tough obstacle
If MTSU gets past Colorado, the Lady Raiders would likely face Duke on its home floor in the second round.
Duke (25-6) is 13-1 at home with its only loss at Cameron Indoor Stadium coming to rival (and No. 6 seed) North Carolina, 45-41.
While MTSU has just four losses, all of them have come on the road or at a neutral site.
How far will MTSU go?
With a No. 11 seed, it's likely MTSU will be an underdog throughout the tournament. However, the early matchups are winnable if the Lady Raiders play their best.
MTSU will play its best to upset over Colorado, but will succumb to Duke and its home-court advantage in the second round in what will be a very low-scoring affair.
It will be the first time since 2007 MTSU advanced past the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
This article originally appeared on Murfreesboro Daily News Journal: March Madness predictions: Why MTSU women's basketball can reach Sweet 16
