Why NC State basketball can – and can’t – reach March Madness’ Sweet 16
NC State basketball is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in four years, but the Wolfpack got a tough draw with the arrival of March Madness.
NC State, the No. 11 seed in the South Region, faces No. 6 Creighton on Friday (4 p.m., TNT) in Denver. The Bluejays (21-12) were the preseason favorite to win the Big East and, despite some rough stretches earlier in the season, are one of the most balanced teams in the country.
If the Wolfpack (23-10) can advance to Sunday’s second round, a matchup with 2021 national champion Baylor (22-10) could be in the cards. The Bears have one of the top offenses in the nation.
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Can the Wolfpack, which celebrated the 40th anniversary of its 1983 national championship this season, channel some of that energy to do some damage in the Big Dance?
Here’s a look at why NC State can – or can’t – make its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2015.
Why NC State can reach Sweet 16: Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner
Leaders of the ACC’s second-best scoring offense at 78.9 points per game, NC State guards Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner are among the top bucket-getters in the bracket. The Wolfpack is 9-1 when Smith scores 20 or more points. When Joiner drops 20 or more, NC State is 10-2. Guards win in March and State has two of the best in the country.
Why NC State can’t reach Sweet 16: Creighton’s balance
Creighton won 12 of its last 16 games, including wins over five NCAA tourney teams – Arkansas, Xavier, Marquette, Providence and UConn. The Bluejays have five double-digit scorers, led by 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg), and the 15th-best defensive efficiency in the country, according to KenPom.com. That's a tough combo for any team to face.
Why NC State can reach Sweet 16: Wolfpack’s seed could be good luck
“Feels like ‘83” has been a popular Twitter phrase among NC State fans throughout the season. Well, in 2022, the 11-6 matchups produced three upsets with two of those teams – Michigan and Iowa State – advancing to the Sweet 16. In 2021, two 11 seeds pulled off upsets, and both advanced to the second weekend. The Wolfpack advanced to the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed in 2012.
Why NC State can’t reach Sweet 16: Lack of big-time wins
The Wolfpack has lost three of its last four games, including an 80-54 loss to Clemson at the ACC Tournament. In addition to its recent struggles, NC State hasn’t beaten an opponent ranked inside of KenPom.com’s top 50 since blowing out Duke in early January. The Wolfpack hasn’t earned a signature win away from Raleigh.
PREDICTION
NC State had an amazing turnaround with a group of players that deserved a chance to compete on the biggest stage as part of March Madness. Unfortunately, a matchup with Creighton before a possible meeting with Baylor is a tough draw. The Wolfpack won’t advance to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Why NC State basketball can – and can’t – reach March Madness’ Sweet 16
