Why an Oak Ridge activist thought atomic 'Doomsday Clock' would tick closer to apocalypse

One anti-nuclear weapons activist in Oak Ridge thought the world would be closer to doomsday than it's ever been in 2024, given wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and record hot temperatures.

It turns out, the world is no nearer to nuclear annihilation this year than last year, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which set its metaphorical "Doomsday Clock" at 90 seconds to midnight for the second year in a row.

The clock has been set since 1947 as a measure of how close humanity is to end times. At first, scientists focused on Cold War nuclear weapons, but they have since expanded to consider threats from climate change and artificial intelligence.

Ninety seconds is the closest to midnight the clock, an alarm sounded by some of the world's leading scientists and elected officials, has ever been.

Tanvi Kardile, coordinator of the Oak Ridge Environmental Peace Alliance, said the news came as a surprise given the war between Israel and Hamas. The group gathered Jan. 23 on Market Square to mark the event.

"I unfortunately thought it would be closer to midnight, just because last year they really talked about the situation in Ukraine and Russia threatening to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine," Kardile said. "This year, I thought it'd be closer because of the war going on in Gaza right now."

On Jan. 23, the scientists who set the clock acknowledged "the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has the potential to escalate into a wider Middle Eastern conflict that could pose unpredictable threats, regionally and globally."

The clock was set to two minutes to midnight in 2019 and 100 seconds to midnight in 2022. The fragility of nuclear nonproliferation agreements and worsening climate problems pushed the group to announce a record Doomsday Clock last year.

US spends far more on nuclear weapons than nonproliferation

Anti-nuclear weapons activism in Oak Ridge has always focused on the Y-12 National Security Complex, the nation's storehouse of bomb-grade uranium, where vital parts of nuclear weapons have been built and processed since the Manhattan Project.

The Oak Ridge Environmental Peace Alliance will gather at 2:30 p.m. Jan. 28 outside the complex to mark the third anniversary of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, an international agreement between 70 countries that became binding in 2021.

The treaty has not been signed by the U.S. or any of the other eight nations known to have nuclear weapons.

"We use this anniversary as a day to mobilize the community to put pressure on representatives, our government, to really pay attention to this treaty and sign onto it," Kardile said. "Not a lot of people in Knoxville and Oak Ridge really know the amount of money that we're paying for weapons production."

In the latest funding bill for energy and water projects, the U.S. House of Representatives approved more than $19 billion for nuclear weapons activities handled by the National Nuclear Security Administration. It approved just $2.4 billion for the agency's nuclear nonproliferation work.

The House subcommittee on energy and water projects is chaired by Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn., whose district includes Oak Ridge.

Y-12 says that nuclear deterrence is central to its role in national security, maintaining the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile to ward off the atomic aspirations of nations like China and Iran.

At a groundbreaking for Y-12's new lithium processing facility, Frank Rose, principal deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, said the U.S. was facing unprecedented nuclear competition from both Russia and China.

“We are for the first time confronting the possibility of facing two near-peer nuclear adversaries,” Rose said. "We are asked to do more at a faster pace at any time since World War II. The key to meeting our expanded mission requirements is an enterprise that is resilient and flexible.”

Daniel Dassow is a growth and development reporter focused on technology and energy. Phone 423-637-0878. Email daniel.dassow@knoxnews.com.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: 2024 Doomsday Clock marked by Oak Ridge peace activists