Why I gave Tennessee Titans their dream scenario in my first NFL mock draft of 2023
In my first 2023 mock draft, I ended up giving the Tennessee Titans their dream scenario.
The Titans need offensive linemen like fish need gills. Sitting with the No. 11 pick in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, I see a world where the Titans are the first team picking an offensive lineman. And in this situation, I think the Titans would be smart to grab Northwestern tackle Peter Skoronski.
First, let's talk about Skoronski. His strength is pass protection. In two seasons as Northwestern's starting left tackle, he allowed 26 quarterback pressures in 910 pass-block snaps. That's one pressure per 35 drop-backs. Pressures include hurries, hits and sacks. If we're only talking about sacks, Skoronski surrendered three in two seasons, including just one in 2022, when Pro Football Focus graded Skoronski as college football's best pass protector.
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The Big Ten has been loaded with pass-rush specialists, and that hasn't fazed Skoronski. In 2021 he allowed two pressures in 34 drop-backs against Aidan Hutchinson and Michigan, and didn't allow any pressures in 31 drop-backs against George Karlaftis and Purdue. In 2022, he only allowed two pressures in 88 drop-backs against Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa.
He isn't as dominant as a run blocker, but he still graded as PFF's sixth-best Power 5 run-blocking tackle in 2022. Among fellow potential first-round picks at tackle like Paris Johnson Jr., Broderick Jones and Anton Harrison, none ranked higher and only Johnson (eighth) even ranked in the top 25.
Skoronski doesn't have elite measurables, and that might give the Titans some pause. He's listed at 6-foot-4; Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan is 6-foot-7, and former Titans tackle Jack Conklin is 6-6. How Skoronski tests at the combine could end up determining if he's the first tackle off the board or if teams will be more inclined to take the longer tackles earlier.
This conversation could be moot if I'm wrong and any team in the top 10 wants to take a tackle before the Titans get a chance. But here are a few reasons why I'm not sold that's going to happen:
We can guarantee four of the top 10 picks will be quarterbacks Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, and defensive linemen Will Anderson Jr. and Jalen Carter. Whether someone trades up for him or not, I feel pretty comfortable assuming quarterback Will Levis will also go in the top 10. That's five picks who won't be offensive linemen.
Most teams sitting in the top 10 have little incentive to pick an offensive tackle. The Seattle Seahawks started two rookies at tackle last year. The Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders all finished top 10 in PFF pass-blocking grades last season. The Raiders and Detroit Lions were top 10 in preventing sacks per drop-back in 2022, and the Carolina Panthers were top 10 in preventing pressures per drop-back. (The Titans ranked worst, fourth-worst and worst in those three categories.)
Offensive linemen aren't drafted as highly as people think. It's a premium position, but it's a hard one to scout confidently. In the last eight drafts, only two tackles have been selected in the top five, and the average slot the first tackle has been picked is ninth.
This isn't to say no one should want Skoronski. Or Johnson, Harrison or Jones for that matter. All four would be upgrades over what the Titans had last year and could start for any number of NFL teams.
But with the draft order sitting like it currently is, there's a good chance the Titans are the first team that prioritizes taking an offensive lineman. And if I'm in charge, I'm taking the guy who has two years of tape proving he doesn't make mistakes in pass protection against top-tier competition.
Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicksuss.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Tennessee Titans mock draft 2023: Why I picked OT Peter Skoronski
