Why do political longshots run for President of the United States? | Civics Project

Q. Why do politicians with no shot of winning run for president?

A. It’s probably worth starting with the observation that being a long-shot candidate does not mean that you have no chance of winning. Elections have been won by candidates who were not taken very seriously in the beginning. In 2016, former President Donald Trump was viewed by many as an unserious candidate who would likely drop out. Indeed, Trump explored running for president in 2012, and ultimately decided to drop out and continue hosting, "The Apprentice." Many expected a similar result in 2016 before he went on to win the nomination and presidency.

Historically, we have a few other examples of candidates who were seen as longshots, but ultimately rose to prominence, and occasionally victory. In 1844, James K. Polk was a middling politician known mostly for having lost consecutive elections in Tennessee. He was trying to maneuver for the Democratic nomination for Vice President when the convention went sideways, and Polk emerged as a compromise candidate. He not only received the presidential nomination, but he went on to win the presidency over Henry Clay.

Similarly, Franklin Pierce, who had been retired from Congress for over 10 years, was a long-shot for the Democratic nomination in 1852. The convention was divisive, and after 47 ballots, there still was no nominee. Pierce, who was unknown to many at the convention, managed to win it on the 48^th ballot and then went on to win the presidency.

Party infighting is often the key for outside candidates. John W. Davis got the nomination in 1924 on the 103^rd ballot at a very split Democratic Convention. However, he was unable to unite the party and went on to be crushed by Calvin Coolidge. Among the most famous long-shot candidates has to be Wendell Wilkie, who barely registered on the political landscape in 1940 before his opposition to the New Deal allowed him to rally Republicans and win the GOP nomination. Wilkie’s meteoric rise ended in a decisive loss to Franklin D. Roosevelt.

While you do have candidates that rise from obscurity, most long-shots remain just that. While Bill Clinton was able to rise from 13^th place to victory in 1992, most never move the needle. In 2020, you may or may not remember the candidacies of Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, John Delaney, Joe Sestak, William Weld and Joe Walsh, just to name a few. Those are some of the more prominent ones. Some of you might even remember that Miramar Mayor Wayne Messam was a candidate for a time.

So why do they run? For some, they think they can win. Politicians are often confident when they probably should not be. For others, it is about creating name recognition so they may not be as much of a longshot when they try again. For a few, it is about an issue or idea that they want to bring to the nation’s attention. Ross Perot may not have won, but he made the campaign address the issue of the deficit.  For some it’s about the money, since being recognized as a presidential candidate can provide a few new avenues to make an income.

Kevin Wagner is a noted constitutional scholar and political science professor at Florida Atlantic University. The answers provided do not necessarily represent the views of the university. If you have a question about how American government and politics work, email him at kwagne15@fau.edu or reach him on Twitter @kevinwagnerphd

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Why do politicians with little chance run for president?